ADAPTIVE PLANNING OVERVIEW for USMC FDPE WG 2 August 2005

1. ADAPTIVE PLANNING OVERVIEWforUSMC FDP&E WG2 August 2005 CDR John �Mick� Meissel, USN Joint Operational War Plans Division Operational Plans & Joint Force Development Joint Staff J-7

2. Current process (Joint Operation Planning & Execution System � JOPES) : Can take up to 24 months to complete a plan Provides limited course of action options SecDef tasked the CJCS to develop a process that: Produces plans in far less time than it takes now Creates plans that contain a range and menu of embedded options Enables the rapid revision of plans Joint Staff in concert with the OSD, conducted a study that concluded: Strategic planning is a critical Joint capability Planners will need enhanced Processes, Products, People and Technology (�P3T�) to succeed A disciplined change process must be established and followed (Transition must be like fielding a weapons system) Plans and planning synthesize all DoD activities, so planning reform will help drive transformation Planning Transformation: Sec Def Tasking

3. Adaptive Planning produces plans faster and to a higher quality (in less time) than what we have now It will offer our senior leadership more options and the ability to rapidly weigh those options (in context of strategic assumptions, risk assessment and tolerance, etc.) At maturity, it will operate in a net-centric, collaborative environment that will allow near-instantaneous creation and provide �triggers� for the updating of plans It will mature through 2008 under a Disciplined Change Process (Crawl, Walk, Run) It will help drive Department Transformation Adaptive Planning produces plans faster and to a higher quality (in less time) than what we have now It will offer our senior leadership more options and the ability to rapidly weigh those options (in context of strategic assumptions, risk assessment and tolerance, etc.) At maturity, it will operate in a net-centric, collaborative environment that will allow near-instantaneous creation and provide �triggers� for the updating of plans It will mature through 2008 under a Disciplined Change Process (Crawl, Walk, Run) It will help drive Department Transformation

4. Adaptive Planning Attributes DEFINITION: �Adaptive Planning is the joint capability to create or revise plans rapidly and systematically as circumstances require. AP occurs in a networked, collaborative environment, requires the regular involvement of senior DOD leaders, and results in plans containing a range of viable options.� �and, a VISION: �Adaptive Planning will form the backbone of a future Joint adaptive planning and execution system, supporting the development and execution of plans. AP will preserve the best characteristics of present day Deliberate and Crisis Action planning and execution with a common process and methodology.� Additionally, the matrix shown here lists the key attributes that characterize the adaptive planning process. The list is not all-inclusive � that is, there may be other qualities yet identified. Some of these derive directly from SecDef guidance, such as �rapid� and �iterative.� Some derive from the Department�s increasing net-centricity, like �Collaborative� and �Networked.� Some respond to the current strategic environment, such as �Flexible� and �Comprehensive.� Others, like �Focused� and �Feasible� reflect the concerns of the planning community. DEFINITION: �Adaptive Planning is the joint capability to create or revise plans rapidly and systematically as circumstances require. AP occurs in a networked, collaborative environment, requires the regular involvement of senior DOD leaders, and results in plans containing a range of viable options.� �and, a VISION: �Adaptive Planning will form the backbone of a future Joint adaptive planning and execution system, supporting the development and execution of plans. AP will preserve the best characteristics of present day Deliberate and Crisis Action planning and execution with a common process and methodology.� Additionally, the matrix shown here lists the key attributes that characterize the adaptive planning process. The list is not all-inclusive � that is, there may be other qualities yet identified. Some of these derive directly from SecDef guidance, such as �rapid� and �iterative.� Some derive from the Department�s increasing net-centricity, like �Collaborative� and �Networked.� Some respond to the current strategic environment, such as �Flexible� and �Comprehensive.� Others, like �Focused� and �Feasible� reflect the concerns of the planning community.

5. Essential Elements Clear Strategic Guidance Detailed guidance Frequent dialogue Agreement on planning assumptions, considerations, risks, COAs, implementing actions and other key factors Embedded Options Branches & sequels Anticipates significant changes to key planning factors ID�ed and developed as integral part of base plan Provide foundation for transition to crisis planning Parallel & iterative Planning in a Net-centric, Collaborative Environment Planners, plans, planning tools and authoritative databases linked in net-centric environment � an end-to-end suite of planning and execution tools Planners will work collaboratively, in parallel, at multiple echelons and across functional areas �Living Plans� Maintained in a net-centric, collaborative, virtual environment Updated routinely to reflect changes in guidance and/or strategic environment Automatic triggers linked to real time authoritative sources DRRS GFM Clear Guidance � Accomplished through frequent discussions between SecDef, CJCS and COCOM commanders Embedded Options � provide greater flexibility Living Plans will have four levels of planning effort Level 1 Plan � requires a developed COA(s); Products can be COA briefing Cdr�s estimate, concept of memorandum Level 2 Plan � culminates in a base plan w/o annexes; Provides sufficient detail to describe: concept of operation Major forces Concepts of support Anticioated timelines for completing mission Level 3 Plan � Base plan w/ selected annexes (A.B, C, D, J,K,S,V &Z) and COCOM Cdr�s estimate of plan�s feasibility w/ respect to forces, logistics, sustainment & transportation If applicabel, produces �gross-transportation-feasible� Force Flow Data Level 4 Plan � Base plan w/ complete set of annexes and a detailed Force Flow Data Clear Guidance � Accomplished through frequent discussions between SecDef, CJCS and COCOM commanders Embedded Options � provide greater flexibility Living Plans will have four levels of planning effort Level 1 Plan � requires a developed COA(s); Products can be COA briefing Cdr�s estimate, concept of memorandum Level 2 Plan � culminates in a base plan w/o annexes; Provides sufficient detail to describe: concept of operation Major forces Concepts of support Anticioated timelines for completing mission Level 3 Plan � Base plan w/ selected annexes (A.B, C, D, J,K,S,V &Z) and COCOM Cdr�s estimate of plan�s feasibility w/ respect to forces, logistics, sustainment & transportation If applicabel, produces �gross-transportation-feasible� Force Flow Data Level 4 Plan � Base plan w/ complete set of annexes and a detailed Force Flow Data

6. Adaptive Planning Operational Overview Adaptive Planning will be: Collaborative Net-centric Capable of parallel planningAdaptive Planning will be: Collaborative Net-centric Capable of parallel planning

7. Compares the current deliberate and crisis planning processes to the prototype Adaptive Planning (AP) Process The prototype process has four phases with three strategic leadership in-progress reviews (IPRs), leading to plan approval in the time available for planning, whether months or, in crisis, days The new process preserves the discipline and logic of �military decision-making� while taking steps to improve plan development and approval. It is far more rapid and adaptive in the development phase Compares the current deliberate and crisis planning processes to the prototype Adaptive Planning (AP) Process The prototype process has four phases with three strategic leadership in-progress reviews (IPRs), leading to plan approval in the time available for planning, whether months or, in crisis, days The new process preserves the discipline and logic of �military decision-making� while taking steps to improve plan development and approval. It is far more rapid and adaptive in the development phase

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9. Progress to Date Strategic Planning Guidance, Fiscal Years 2006-2011, March 2004, directed transition to adaptive planning Draft CPG directs initial implementation of AP PACOM developed three war plans with prototype process EUCOM and SOCOM using AP to develop CPG-directed plans JPEC G/FOs endorsed AP Roadmap, May 2005 AP Roadmap approved by the �Tank� and sent to CJCS, June 2005 OSD(P), JS J7 and J3 �unified� partnership towards AP vision PACOM was selected as the test unit and has conducted its deliberate planning with the prototype process � they are the only plans to be approved to date by the SecDef JPEC, OPSDEP Tank and JCS Tank concurred with AP Roadmap, to forward for SecDef�s signature Roadmap at CJCS for signature. OSD coordination completed to go to SecDef for cover letter. PACOM was selected as the test unit and has conducted its deliberate planning with the prototype process � they are the only plans to be approved to date by the SecDef JPEC, OPSDEP Tank and JCS Tank concurred with AP Roadmap, to forward for SecDef�s signature Roadmap at CJCS for signature. OSD coordination completed to go to SecDef for cover letter.

10. AP Roadmap - Implementing Instructions Spiral Development Three stages Initiation stage Implementation stage Integration stage Products, Process, People & Technology (P3T) After Action Reviews Roadmap is the implementing instructions P3T shortened version of DOTMLPF Roadmap is the implementing instructions P3T shortened version of DOTMLPF

11. AP Development AP implemented through spiral development Defn (DoDI 5000.2) �...a desired capability is identified, but the end-state requirements are not known at program initiation. Those requirements are refined through demonstration and risk management; there is continuous user feedback; and each increment provides the user the best possible capability. The requirements for future increments depend on feedback from users and technology maturation.� Three overlapping stages: Initiation Stage Implementation Stage Integration Stage Requirements for each successive stage will depend on regular stakeholder feedback and technology maturation. Each Stage will provide planners with a more sophisticated capability. P3T Areas � Transformation using a comprehensive, DOTMLPF approach Adjust and refine AP through: Semi-annual AP conferences, COCOM feedback (AARs) after development of designated priority warplans. New versions of Roadmap published prior to each succeeding AP stage

12. Development Stages Initiation Stage Commences with the issuance of AP Roadmap. Goals: Establish an AP Prototype. Use CFAST as the prototype system to replace current deliberate planning procedures for the production of designated high-priority plans. Learn from that experience to evolve to a fully mature process. Implementation Stage Commences with an updated and revised Adaptive Planning Roadmap. (Version 2). Will describe modifications and changes to Processes, Products, People and Technology (P3T) identified during the Initiation Stage. Will focus on establishing processes, procedures, and doctrine to facilitate the hand-off between deliberate and crisis action planning. Will begin migration into JC2. Will begin fielding of approved technology that enables parallel planning, linkages to authoritative databases, and enhanced integration with related DoD initiatives.

13. Development Stages (Continued) Integration Stage Will begin with Version 3 of the Roadmap, which outlines changes to P3T. Goal is for AP to reach full maturity and become the system of record for all planning through execution with a full complement of trained and qualified Joint contingency planners. AP technologies and tools will reside within JC2 on the Global Information Grid (GIG). Adaptable �living plans� will be developed, adjusted, and maintained in JC2 on the GIG. Situational changes to authoritative sources will automatically trigger plan review and updates. Living plans are the goal of AP.Living plans are the goal of AP.

14. Here is a snapshot of our way ahead. Again, this shows the three stage process of Initiation, Integration and Implementation. What I want to demonstrate in this slide is that we are not planning in a vacuum. Data from Services, DRRS, JPDO and GFM are all incorporated into our decision process.. Here is a snapshot of our way ahead. Again, this shows the three stage process of Initiation, Integration and Implementation. What I want to demonstrate in this slide is that we are not planning in a vacuum. Data from Services, DRRS, JPDO and GFM are all incorporated into our decision process..

15. QUESTIONS?