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Allan Rivlin, Partner Peter D. Hart Research

P e t e r D HART RESEARCH A S S O C I A T E S Allan Rivlin, Partner Peter D. Hart Research McCain Wraps Up GOP Nomination 49% 72% 38% 36% 37% 41% 51% 55% 51% 65% 39% 67% 52% 34% 55% 51% 60% 45% 47% 90% 42% 52% 60% 61% 50% 60% 33% 61% 34% 48% 37%

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Allan Rivlin, Partner Peter D. Hart Research

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  1. P e t e r D HART RESEARCH A S S O C I A T E S Allan Rivlin, Partner Peter D. Hart Research

  2. McCain Wraps Up GOP Nomination 49% 72% 38% 36% 37% 41% 51% 55% 51% 65% 39% 67% 52% 34% 55% 51% 60% 45% 47% 90% 42% 52% 60% 61% 50% 60% 33% 61% 34% 48% 37% 61% 33% 79% 34% 41% McCain-1,334 43% 51% Huckabee-278 44% 36%

  3. Democrats Look Toward Denver 68% 60% 59% 61% 39% 67% 80% 56% 58% 57% 58% 61% 51% 38% 54% 68% 51% 54% 53% 64% 57% 52% 67% 60% 74% 64% 49% 76% 54% 49% 55% 49% 70% 55% 67% 61% Pledged Delegates 56% 57% 51% Obama-1,404 75% Clinton-1,249 Needed to win: 2,025(including super-delegates) 76%

  4. Democratic Delegate AllocationPercentages based on the 2-candidate vote Winner take all 0 4 50% Fourdelegates 0 1 3 4 2 15% 37.5% 62.5% 85% Fivedelegates 0 1 2 3 4 5 15% 30% 70% 50% 85%

  5. Remaining States in April/May • April 22nd – Pennsylvania – 158 delegates • May 3rd – Guam – 4 delegates • May 6th – 187 delegates • Indiana (72) • North Carolina (115) • May 13th – West Virginia – 28 delegates • May 20th – 103 delegates • Kentucky (51) • Oregon (52)

  6. Remaining States in June • June 3rd - 31 delegates • Montana (16) • South Dakota (15) • June 7th – Puerto Rico - 55 delegates • Super-Delegates – 796 • Can vote their conscience • Democratic members of Congress, DNC committee members, distinguished party leaders • Florida and Michigan issue

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