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Goals: Policy & Politics

Goals: Policy & Politics. Second Half of Global Warming Course Dr. Chris Hamilton 2-4 T,W,Th Henderson 222 670-1738 chris.hamilton@washburn.edu. UNDERSTAND : The REAL Scientific Facts Science vs Science Denial Politically-driven & Corporate-bought resistance to Science

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Goals: Policy & Politics

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  1. Goals: Policy & Politics Second Half of Global Warming Course Dr. Chris Hamilton 2-4 T,W,Th Henderson 222 670-1738 chris.hamilton@washburn.edu

  2. UNDERSTAND: The REAL Scientific Facts Science vs Science Denial Politically-driven & Corporate-bought resistance to Science How to Effectively respond to Science Denial propaganda Best scientific projections of the Dangers of climate change / warming Evidence of dire changes now Tipping Points

  3. Scientific Future Scenarios for the Humans, and the Planet • BEST Policies • Policies & Agreements (of Governments, European Union, US, states & cities, industry, other nations • Policies of NGOs and Religions, Business • Develop personal, family, lifestyle changes

  4. HOW SEVERE A THREAT IS CLIMATE CHANGE ? • MYTHS • * We can carry on as now. * We’ll adapt to climate change — civilization has survived droughts and temperature shifts before. * Inventions will save us. • FACTS • We must REVERSE climate change. The best of Physical, and Social sciences shows these hard scientific realities: • The current warming of our climate will bring major hardships — untold human suffering, in the 21st century & beyond for our children and grandchildren, and species extinctions. Climate has changed in the past, humans survived, but… *the climate changes are VASTLY greater and * they are human induced • Today’s times are vastly different: huge population growth, fossil-fuel based economic growth, and Carbon and temperature increases are INTERCONNECTED, with hazards that can produce Major Extinction Events in future centuries, if trends are not stabilized in this century.

  5. If current trends continue we face a warming trend unseen since human civilization began 10,000 years ago. (IPCC 2001) and unseen back 50 million years (IPCC 2007). Projected: + 2.0 - 4.0 degree C in this century. • According to best science, effects of current trends will be dire by the end of the 21st century (IPCC, May 2007) • 20-30 % plant & animal species will approach extinction • Coasts eroded, then flooded by 2070s, hundreds of millions inundated, esp. So. Asia, and the world’s big coastal cities • Up to 40% melt of ice/snow at high altitudes, flooding & then loss of water supply where 1 of 6 live in So. Asia, affecting 1 billion by 2050 Minus 10-30% precipitation in mid latitudes, eg Mediterranean, Africa, S. Eur • Increased droughts, heat waves, floods, storms, scarcity of water and food, spread of infections diseases • Will increase: Vast Human, and species death; Economic depression & collapse; Government breakdowns; civil wars & major conflicts throughout the globe.

  6. 2050

  7. SCIENTIFICALLY, WHY THIS IS A TURNING POINT • How Scientists Know: http://www.edf.org/page.cfm?tagid=54125 • WHAT they know: http://www.edf.org/article.cfm?contentID=11016 • SEEING is Believing: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djLZhO60LS0&feature=related http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/science/past-present-and-future.html#3Data Trends http://www.global-greenhouse-warming.com/greenhouse-gas.htmlmultiple Greenhouse Gas Trends http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3F9FbdqGRsg&feature=related Video of Greenland melting http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fpqnElX2RWU&feature=fvwrelCBS TV report http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hgvNO_WT9o&feature=watch_response_revVideo of Ice Loss Over Time How it is Human Caused: \\wustore4\home\zzhamilt\My Documents\Climate.Change.Human.Induced.Timeline.docx Basic Scientific Proof of Cause & Effect: 1. Correlation 2. Time – Order is Correct, Causes Come Before Effect • Tipping Points Research: Allianz Ins. & WWFhttp://knowledge.allianz.com/search.cfm?519/climate-tipping-points-study • \\wustore4\home\zzhamilt\My Documents\Climate.Change.12Tipping. Points.docxhttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42269650/ns/us_news-environment/ • Average temperatures in a region (isotherms) are moving north or south 35 miles per decade http://www.sciencedaily.com/videos/2007/0902-our_changing_climate.htm • If carbon CO2 emissions increase at current rates, isotherm movement to the Poles will double this century to at least 70 miles per decade • This will vastly outrace the ability of animals and plants to migrate and adapt. If this continues, as many as 50% or more of species on Earth could become extinct. Similar to geologic extinction events in past eons. This is in addition to Human world changes. • Jim Hansen, Director, NASA/Goddard Earth Institutehttp://www.answers.com/topic/james-hansen

  8. Under a Green Sky Peter Ward, other paleontologists But Worse than all This… Is The Green Sky… Extinction Events…when almost all life dies in Geologic History , Gives Guide to Current GHGas Threat http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/10/071024083644.htmhttp://www.amazon.com/Under-Green-Sky-Warming-Extinctions/dp/006113791X Four Geologic Eras when GHGases & Warming Increased from Volcanic Interruptions, nearly all oxygen-based life died out

  9. GIGANTIC volcanic eruptions between Tectonic plates threw out massive gases, heat, magma on ocean floors During the Permian extinction, almost 90% of species died Same at the end of the Triassic the first part of the "age of the dinosaurs. At the end of the Triasic all dinos died, eg “comet impact” theory But the crater in the Gulf of Mexico turned out to be the wrong age by several million years

  10. How Almost All Life Died: carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas levels were indirectly measured via isotope ratios in rocks all over the world The Extinctions started on the ocean floor going up, replacing oxygen-breathers with anoxic bacteria This bacteria, plus Eruptions released billions of tons of sulfide gases & particulates into the oceans, the gases “burped” into the atmosphere Poisonous gases, and global warming expanded rapidly. Oceans turned thick, The Sky Turned Green, and virtually all oxygen-breathing life in oceans and on land DIED IN A FEW DECADES. Oxygen life return took hundreds of thousands of years.

  11. The Really Bad NEWS: Methane At current rates of GHGas increase We are about one century away from Extinction Event GHGas levels higher than 900 ppm (CO2). \\wustore4\home\zzhamilt\My Documents\Under a Green Sky.docx See Last Pages, 3 scenarios. PROBLEM: the new Threat of Methane Release as Permafrost zones thaw out & undersea methane release may worsen. http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2006/sep/10/russia.climatechange http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/hundreds-of-methane-plumes-discovered-941456.htmlhttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42269650/ns/us_news-environment/Video, scroll to pt. 3

  12. How Humanity is at a Turning PointSyllabus, Pg 14 • Unchecked GHG induced Climate Change threatens a great loss of human populations, similar to ancient plagues. • The developing vast changes in climates threaten established human life, civilization, species & ecologies, including the degrading of oceans eco-systems & life. • The potential for change is perhaps less than a massive Comet impact, but greater than the Industrial Revolution, Colonialism & the World Wars. • Human ability to adapt away from global fossil-fuel based Industrial-urban growth capitalism, and toward sustainable, environmentally balanced economies is actually possible. (Syllabus pg. 9) http://www.globalpolicy.org/social-and-economic-policy/the-environment/climate-change/49860.html?itemid=986 • But change in time to avert disaster is politically difficult, apparently possible, but far from certain.

  13. Change Probably Must Be Coordinated in at least Five Social Sectors, Worldwide: \\wustore4\home\zzhamilt\My Documents\Climate.Change.Alternative.Futures.docx • From Capitalism to Sustainable Development; • Consumption; • Population growth; • Energy (Fuel, Sector use & Conservation) • Human Values • Biggest Change Agents: Governments, NGOs, Culture & Lifestyle, Business, Religions • Growth Capitalism, Politics + cultural resistance, not technological feasibility is the greatest obstacle to human adaptationView “The Story of Stuff” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gLBE5QAYXp8 • Currently, the greatest political obstacles and resistance lies in the politics, and culture of the United States, China, India and the fast-developing 3rd world nations • We have between 20 and 40 years to change, in the best-science projections

  14. What Is Sustainable Development ? http://www.hks.harvard.edu/sustsci/ists/docs/whatisSD_env_kates_0504.pdf • Since 1972, SD attempts to reconcile development aspirations with the need to preserve the basic ecological life support systems of Earth. Examples of: http://greenliving.lovetoknow.com/Slideshow:Examples_of_Sustainable_Development • The practice of SD is an ongoing dialogue and re-definition in 40 plus years of scientific work & political agreements • Originally it was defined as the “ability to make development sustainable—to meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” 1987 UN Bruntland Commission, and Board on Sustainable Development of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brundtland_Commission • By 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development defined it as “three pillars of sustainable development” economic develop- ment, human-social development and environmental protection & preservation—at local, national, regional and global levels.” • Human-social development emphasizes “human well-being,” “social justice,’’ “equity,” and “poverty & hunger alleviation.” • Major Policy Examples: Electronic Course File \\wustore4\home\zzhamilt\My Documents\Climate.Change.Policies.Major.Examples.docx The Amazing Milpahttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milpa http://themilpaproject.com/folio_images/9.html

  15. New Vast advances in measuring human development & well-being have been made: Human Development Indexhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Human_Development_Indexand Well Being Index http://well-beingindex.com/ • Nature is valued for itself, rather than its utility for human beings.  • New Vast advances in measuring Environmental and ecological well-being have been made: Environment Performance Indexhttp://www.ciesin.columbia.edu/repository/epi/data/2010EPI_summary.pdfGeneral Progress Indexhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genuine_progress_indicatorhttp://www.gpiatlantic.org/gpi.htm • We can now measure & track how we are doing in these realms • Now that we can accurately track Climate, Ecology & Human Conditions, the Big Question is: • Do We Know How We Can Get Out of The Disaster? • The Answer Seems to be Yes, in Two Ways: A. The Possible Human Reform Sources, and B. Advanced Social Science Modelling Now Shows Paths Out – • The most informative is the GLOBAL TRANSITIONS INIITIATIVE

  16. POSSIBLE HUMAN REFORM SOURCES “Top Down” • Big Power Nation “leaders”… Blair, Gore, Clinton ? • Collective of big nation leaders Blair + Germany + EU policies • International organizations, treaties Kyoto, G-8 • Big Capitalist Reformers in league with political leaders Ex: Bill Gates, BP, Climate Action Coalition • “Bottom Up” • Arts & Music Communities Live Earth, Bono • Scientists, most Mass Media, Schools/universities, Environmental groups • International NGOs & Sustainable Development Orgs • (increasingly powerful) • Religions & Interfaith NGOs (increasingly powerful) • VS Entrenched capitalists & politicians, Development forces, Consumer attitudes & hungers/habits, Cultures

  17. Advanced Social Science Modeling, the Global Transitions Project • The GTI model re-describes successful global Sustainable Development in a “New Sustainability Paradigm” or a Great Transition in the next 100 years. • The Great Transition is a retreat from global capitalist growth and its climate, human and eco-catastrophes, replaced by • an emerging sustainable civilization based on a vast change in human cultures that embraces SD, and a quick establishment of Sustainable Development Societies. SEE: the Global Transitions Initiative quick interactive models:http://www.gtinitiative.org/perspectives/taxonomy.htmland electronic file \\wustore4\home\zzhamilt\My Documents\Climate.Change.Alternative.Futures.docx • To avert Ecological Catastrophe, TWO deep changes must combine as major reforms. One reform is widespread Eco-Communities built from the “bottom up”, local communities everywhere based on sustainable agriculture, regional economies & renewable energies. These are advanced especially by global non-governmental organizations, media and education, and religions. The second major reform is a global “top down” Policy Reform, especially from governments & international agreements http://www.tellus.org/publications/files/Global_Scenarios_for_the_Century_Ahead.pdf • The 21st Century projections are: * Severe crises will ensue from 2015 to 2040. Policy Reforms from governments will be weak until after 2020. * Eco-Communalism based on Sustainable Development will grow strongly from 2020

  18. forward with increasing rapidity. * Large zones of Barbarism, and some Fortress Nation-states will opt out. * About 2050 Climate Tipping Point disastersmay be stalled, and Co2 levels will stabilize back to 350 ppm. * Late 21st century improvements in species death, human death, population, toxic pollution, global poverty, hunger, and international human development will ensue. • However -- if humans pursue only government Policy Reforms, or especially ONLY Market-based reforms, then Climate Disasters and species death will increase, and humanity will descend into Barbarism, and all life will be imperiled. • HOW HARD IS IT TO BRING ABOUT THIS HUGE CHANGE ? • Scientifically, moderately hard. See A. Politically, even harder, but possible. See B • A. IPCC 2007 Report Scientific Projections. • A 2 to 4 degree C increase is predicted for 21st century. No parallel in last 50 million years. • even a 50% reduction of CO2 levels in this century would stabilize atmospheric Carbon but only for less than a decade, (stabilizing temperatures briefly). Much more than a 50% reduction is required to eventually decrease atmospheric CO2 and warming. • Perhaps do-able, See Plan B 4.0 IPCC linkhttp://www.globalpolicy.org/images/pdfs/0504ipccthree.pdf B. IN POLITICS, AND ECONOMICS, CAN WE CHANGE FAST ENOUGH ? • Hamilton Political Feasibility Scale 1 – 10, 1=easy to change, 10 = almost impossibl • China, India, and US must change public policies, fossil-fuel, industrial, & consumption. 7 ? • Positive trends must be simultaneously forced in Population growth, urban & land-use, de-forestation, retreat from industrialization/fossil fuels, consumption, & renewable energy growth in the most developed & developing nations.6-7 ? • Green policies & Sustainable Development must spread quickly through the Southern world, and from Europe, to US, to big developing economies, inside of 30 years. Technologically, it is possible: http://www.globalpolicy.org/social-and-economic-policy/the-environment/climate-change/49860.html?itemid=986 6 ? • Global Transitions modeling says it is possible with Eco-Communalism + Policy Reform 7 ?

  19. SCIENCE DENIAL, and POLITICAL/CORPORATE OPPOSITION IN THE UNITED STATES • Only 13% of Republicans think G. Warming is human induced; 95% Democrats • Science Denial (similar to Tobacco) is promoted by pro-capitalist, right-wing media, politicians, parties & business • = mindset of Capitalism, Corporate & stockholder earnings, protection of class interests and wealth, Consumption • HOW DO YOU TRACK EVIDENCE FOR THIS EXPLANATION ? • Trace the financial/political ties between Science Deniers & Corporations, and right-wing Media outlets & mouthpieces, and “think tanks” and.. • Trace their money & effort at spreading Science Denial disinformation to public audiences http://www.exxposeexxon.com/facts/dailyfacts.html http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science_and_impacts/global_warming_contrarians/global-warming-skeptic.htmlRush Limbaughhttp://mediamatters.org/research/200605230011 • Compare the consensus of Sciences about climate, versus the Bogus science denial • Understand Bush Administration & 2011 Republican pressure against Scientists; Oil lobbyists & paid-for Politicians in top government & environmental government jobs http://www.truth-out.org/article/the-secret-campaign-president-bushs-administration-deny-global-warming • Contrast the above with true Science Advisors and Governments in much of the rest of the world • Note the reliance of Mass Media in the rest of the world on valid Science and scientific sources vs US Media

  20. US BIG POWER ELITES ARE DIVIDED • In the US, the Capitalist and Big Business Communities were deeply split on Climate Change by 2007: Many Big corporate interests pushed for adaptation, alternative energy, green policies US Climate Action Partnership Pew Foundationhttp://www.pewclimate.org/VS • A Few Big corporate interests, were allied with Cheney/Bush in obfuscation, delay, and outright resistance to Science. Some have disbanded, and for awhile became weaker: Cooler Heads Syllabus pgs 8-9, sect 3 Global Climate CoalitionExposeExxon.com • Even so, the Business Roundtable-backed USCAP Coalition that backed Cap & Trade GHG Regulation was defeated in the Senate & doomed by the 2010 Republican gains in Congress

  21. SCIENCE DENIERS – Bought & Paid For Understanding The Science Deniers 101 http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Climate_change_skeptics More Sources of Science Denial and political disinformation follow Global.Warming.ScienceDeniers.Rebuttals.docx How to Talk to A Science Denier http://scienceblogs.com/illconsidered/2008/07/how_to_talk_to_a_sceptic.php

  22. Cheney background 1 Philip Cooney background

  23. See Lecture Files & Links Below Titled: Exxon Climate Denial Evidence \\wustore4\home\zzhamilt\My Documents\ExxonClimateDenialEvidence.docx http://www.exxposeexxon.com/facts/gwdeniers.html Brief description Exxon Warming Deniers Network \\wustore4\home\zzhamilt\My Documents\ExxonWarmingDeniersNetwork.docx http://www.ucsusa.org/assets/documents/global_warming/exxon_report.pdf Exxon Climate Denial Campaign \\wustore4\home\zzhamilt\My Documents\ExxonScienceDenialCampaign.docx http://www.exxposeexxon.com/facts/globalwarming.html http://www.greenpeace.org/usa/campaigns/global-warming-and-energy/exxon-secrets MAP FROM EXXON TO PAID-FOR DENIERS Exxon Denial Campaign after 1997

  24. Bush Administration’s censorship campaign, and flawed policies on global warming, under Dick Cheney’s secrecy leadership • Especially suppress all information and references to the National Assessment of Climate Change & NRC reports, and • Censor & pressure top Agency scientists to downplay, and stop references to Warming http://www.truth-out.org/article/the-secret-campaign-president-bushs-administration-deny-global-warming • Keep Close White House ties to Science Denial organizations, follow their advice: Exxon/Mobil, George Marshall Inst, Competitive Enterprise Institute, the American Petroleum Institute

  25. Rick Piltz Jan ’07 Congressional testimonyhttp://www.climatesciencewatch.org/2007/02/07/rick-piltz-testimony-before-the-senate-commerce-committee/ • The Goals of the American Petroleum Institute under the Bush Administration, the friendly point man being V.P. Dick Cheney: 1. Voluntary industrial greenhouse gas limits, well below anything science calls for 2. No regulatory caps on emissions 3. Put Cheney & Phillip Cooney in charge of suppression of science information 4. Avoid & suppress scientific information inside Agencies, to Congress & public

  26. Best & Worst, 2007, 2010 • 2007 Globie Awardshttp://www.edf.org/article.cfm?contentID=5980 • 2010 Climate B.S. Awards http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/gleick/detail?entry_id=80061

  27. Leadership, Effective Policy Solutions of Governments • Standard approaches for current “modern” economies to reduce global warming (Kyoto, EU initiatives) include: • Reduce energy use (per person, in various economic sectors) • Shift from fossil fuels to alternative energy sources, nuclear, phase-in re-newable energy • Geoengineering including carbon sequestration • Birth control, to lessen demand for resources

  28. These measures may be politically feasible, but scientifically not enough. Their weakness is the efficiency, new technology and birth control strategies do not reduce the resource consumption nature of the capitalist global “annual growth economies” enough to offset its long-term negative GHG impacts. (See Lester Brown, Plan B 2.0). World economic energy efficiency is presently improving at about half the rate of world economic growth.

  29. A strategy for deeper reduction of global warming in the 21st Century includes: • basic changes in capitalist “modern” economies, such as fast development of sustainable or organic farming, massive drops in house-hold energy use • sustainable economic sectors which drastically reduce resource consumption & energy use in transportation, industry, and buildings, • shift to carbon-use taxes, renewable energy • strictly curtail traditional land-use “development” & make it “green”, • massive campaigns of birth control in LDCs • However, such changes may be politically difficult in the 21st century; may take several centuries.

  30. ENERGY CONSERVATION • THE OTHER BIG ANSWER • REDUCES GHG • SAVES MONEY NOW (NEW ALTERNATIVES COST MONEY AT FIRST) • California’s Energy Conservation Guru • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUisk0IJlzY

  31. Amazing GHG Reductions in Energy Conservation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:USenergy2004.jpg U.S. Energy Use by Sector. 30-40% of energy end- use & GHG emission is from excessive energy use, eg: Energy WASTE. Can be reduced with industrial best practices, with cost-savings + GHG reductions by New Buildings energy architectural standards Old buildings energy conservation retro-fit Residential Housing & appliances conservation Insulation-windows (infiltration), Heating (incl. Passive Solar), Cooling, Lighting, Waste recycling

  32. Public transportation alternatives http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetic_levitation_train Industrial process energy use reductions Electrical transmission improvements Conservation, Major Professions Architects: http://www.aia.org/SiteObjects/files/greenbuilding.pdf Industrial engineers: http://www.ceere.org/iac/assessment%20tool/index.html

  33. Renewable Energies • Natural Gas + Wind (Pickens plan) Natural Gas is plentiful, useable for electricity instead of coal with less GHG Wind… can produce up to 20% of nation’s electricity at current technology http://www.cnbc.com/id/25588631/ • Biofuels…. The fast-developing European technology, could replace coal/oil for Industry & Transport Sectors

  34. Biofuels….expanding, adjusting Switchgrass http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5183608 2008 Germany reduces biofuel blend rule: http://www.cleantech.com/news/3765/germany-eases-biofuel-blend-rule In response, the EU boosts non-food related biofuel crops; India boosts biofuel goals http://www.cleantech.com/news/3426/india-eu-affirm-new-biofuels

  35. The European Union’s Policies • EU link Also see study link • Projections… the EU to cut Carbon emissions by 9.3% of 1990 levels by 2010 • 2008 update shows progress only about 1/3 http://www.euractiv.com/en/climate-change/eu-climate-change-policies/article-117453THIS LINK IS CRITICAL FOR EU POLICY SECTORS • List of Measures, detailed by Handout, usually binding on 25 member nations: details link Emissions trading & Clean development policies for new EU nations…slow start, catching up http://www.pewclimate.org/eu-ets/execsum Electricity from renewable energy 11.3%

  36. Biofuels for transport 5.75% by 2010 • Electrical co-generation (re-used heat for electricity generation) Regulations by 2006 • Biomass Action Plan 69 million tons of oil in 2003 to 150 by 2010 • Renewable energy projects $780 million Euros by 2010 • Buildings Energy use (40% all energy use) cut by 20 Million tons CO2 per year by 2010 • Product life-cycle energy efficiency by 8/07 • Nations and Utilities must offer conservation incentives and services by June 2007

  37. Best Available Technologies….regulations for pollution control, reduced GHG emissions, and energy efficiency in major polluting industry and agriculture industries & firms by Oct 2007 • Energy Efficient electrical motors $2 billion grants by 2006 to improve design • CO2 emissions reductions for new cars…manufacturer and import agreements, CO2 tax on vehicles (2007)… 25% reduction in CO2 from 1995 levels by 2009 • Grants to shift freight transport away from Road to Rail & Water….$100 million Euros/yr • Phase out of AC pollutants

  38. Reduction of Methane & GHG from landfills & large agricultural farms….permit system 2001 • Recycling initiatives (esp. for new EU member nations) • Rural Development & Forestry…environment friendly farming & investments in forest $7 Billion Euros/yr, requirement of 25% of dev. funds since 2007 • Energy crops subsidy (biodiesel, etc) $450 Euro per hectare to farmers per year spent since 2003 • Climate Change Research, and Demo Projects is $16 Billion Euros/year since 2006 INDIVIDUAL EUROPEAN NATIONS HAVE POLICIES IN ADDITION TO THESE EU REQUIREMENTS

  39. Kyoto Treaty 1997 Requirements: • 5% cut in GHG from 1990 by 2008-2012 • Binding for the 36 nations who signed both the 1990 Convention treaty and the 1997 Kyoto treaty; 175 nations total ratified Kyoto, not US. • Covers the major GHG:

  40. Countries in Kyoto Protocol and their emissions targets by 2008/2012 re: 1990 • EU-15*, + Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia,Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Monaco, Romania,Slovakia,Slovenia,Switzerland- 8% • US - 7% voluntary only, not met • Canada, Hungary, Japan, Poland - 6% • Croatia - 5% • New Zealand, Russia, Ukraine 0 • Norway +1% • Australia +8% • Iceland +10% The EU’s 15 member States will redistribute their targets among themselves

  41. KYOTOHAS ACHIEVED 5 % Reduction of GHG compared to 1990 levels, by 2004 which is 4 years earlier than 2008 goal • Parties may offset their emissions by domestic energy-use policies or by increasing the amount of greenhouse gases removed from the atmosphere by so-called carbon “sinks” in land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector. • Only certain activities are eligible. These are afforestation, reforestation, forest management, cropland management, grazing land management and revegetation

  42. If a nation fails to meet its target, it must make up the difference in the second commitment period, plus a penalty of 30%. • It must also develop a compliance action plan, and its eligibility to “sell” under emissions trading will be suspended. • joint implementation (in former East Bloc), clean development mechanism (in LDCs) …..nations allowed to carry out a project in another nation or LDC and count the reductions toward its own goals. • emissions trading…nations allowed to transfer difficult goals between themselves when each “other guy” is more able to achieve a reduction.

  43. "registries"-- like bank accounts of a nation's emissions units -- are being set up, along with "accounting procedures," an "international transactions log," and "expert review teams" to police compliance. • After 2001 agreements (Marrakesh rules), then progress has been tracked by this accounting system • Individual Nations Reports Links • the G8 June 2007 “non-deal”

  44. American States…What’s Being Done • What is “cap & trade” http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emissions_trading • http://www.pewclimate.org/what’s_being_ done/in_the_states/news.cfm • State energy building standards • Other States adopting Calif. GHG stds • States in planning for Climate Change

  45. Descriptions, Links on Major Climate Change Programs of States • GHG compacts with other States • Northeast States Emissions Initiative • Western states Governors & Emissions • GHG emissions regulations for energy generation • Alternative energy incentive tax, & grant programs for alternative industries & consumers • http://www.cnbc.com/id/25642976 2008 update • All State energy efficiency programs, incl. utilities

  46. What Cities can do • Land Use; Waste mgt; Mass Transit; Energy Conservation are areas of Cities jurisdiction • CCP International Cities program: • 1. set up GHG data bank, database, monitoring, training workshops, software • 2. City energy efficiency operations, and product use • 3. Building energy conservation & re-hab = $ savings = less GHG • 4. Bicycle paths & mass transit • 5. Alternative fuels for city vehicles • 6. Methane recovery technology for landfills • 7. Help planners link benefits to other goals: air quality, ozone reduction • LINKS city possibilities

  47. Obstacles to US Cities • Many think the “issue” is global-only. This can prevent local action • Lack of personnel with technical knowledge • Often a lack of financial resources to invest in up-front costs without higher Govt aid • Local energy utilities are usually more regulated by States • Some Local/Regional political cultures prevent City Leaders from being progressive

  48. US Government Policies • History of US Govt policies since 1970s • Current Bills and actions before the US Congress • Warner-Lieberman, 2008 • http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5gIlax1wtOnlJGkcoljyqL7PwPqnQ • http://www.nature.org/initiatives/climatechange/press/press3241.html • Green battle over bill: http://www.grist.org/news/muck/2007/10/25/index.html • Three US President’s Policies

  49. Obama-Biden Climate Change & Energy Plan http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/17/uselections2008-carbonemissions http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/newenergy http://www.usnews.com/blogs/fresh-greens/2008/11/06/how-obama-will-tackle-the-environment.html Al Gore/Obama speeches: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZq6qLePsMEhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_jVBfP9d4BE

  50. Germany’s Policies • Has an elaborate, staged plan, goes beyond EU requirements based on 2004 Energy Renewal Act and 2005 National Climate Protection Plan. • German Federal energy Agency has regulatory & funding powers under these plans, with goals, programs & regs to 2020. • Germany’s current Kyoto goal to reduce GHG by 2012 -21% compared to 1990 • But the Fed. Energy Agency has strict goals of reducing GHG by -40% by 2020 and -80% by 2050.

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