1 / 14

THE SWEDISH ELECTION: HOW SCARY AN OUTCOME?

THE SWEDISH ELECTION: HOW SCARY AN OUTCOME?. Klas Eklund American Chamber of Commerce, Oct 2, 1998. A RECORD ELECTION. Worst SDP result since universal suffrage Worst ever for liberals Worst ever for Centre party Best ever for Christian Democrats Best ever for Leftists

jaimie
Télécharger la présentation

THE SWEDISH ELECTION: HOW SCARY AN OUTCOME?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. THE SWEDISH ELECTION:HOW SCARY AN OUTCOME? Klas Eklund American Chamber of Commerce, Oct 2, 1998

  2. A RECORD ELECTION • Worst SDP result since universal suffrage • Worst ever for liberals • Worst ever for Centre party • Best ever for Christian Democrats • Best ever for Leftists • Lowest turn-out since the 1950s 1

  3. 1998: Per cent and seats Left 12.0 43 SDP 36.6 131 Greens 4.4 16 Centre 5.2 18 Liberals 4.7 17 Moderates 22.7 82 Christdem 11.8 42 1994: Per cent and seats Left 6.2 22 SDP 45.3 161 Greens 5.0 18 Centre 7.5 27 Liberals 7.2 26 Moderates 22.2 80 Christdem 4.1 14 ELECTION RESULT

  4. A LEFTIST ELECTION? • The non-socialists have 11 more seats than before • The left bloc has 9 less • The move from SDP to the Left: Maybe the voters stood still, while both parties moved to the right? • Easier to jump from SDP to the Left because the communist stamp is gone • Personality issues: Ms Schyman attracts more (female) voters than Mr Persson • Conclusion: A protest vote rather than a left vote!

  5. NONETHELESS • The Left party is stronger now • As are the non-socialists • Increased polarisation! • SDP + Left: 174 seats, 1 short of a majority • Four non-socialist parties: 157 seats - stronger than the SDP • Three non-socialist parties: 141 seats - also stronger • Means the Left has more clout

  6. PARLIAMENTARY SEATS

  7. WHAT NEXT? • Opening of parliament Oct 5 • Government declaration Oct 6 • Budget proposal Oct 13 • To form a government, Persson must not face a hostile majority • Support from Left and Greens is necessary • Also in getting the budget through parliament • Conclusion: Negotiations necessary!

  8. Close Barseback More money/jobs to local gov:t Laws agains sex discrimination Reduction of work time Referendum on EMU Tax hikes Easier monetary policy Slower amortisation of debt Referendum on EU Free daycare centres Yes Yes Yes Yes, but… Yes No and yes No No No No WHAT THE LEFT WANT - AND WHAT THEY WILL GET

  9. THE BUDGET • First important test for new budget process • Time is on Åsbrink’s side: Most is already settled • Targets will hold • Expenditure ceilings will hold • But reshuffling below ceilings • “No hurry”for the Left since they have a four-year co-operation

  10. MONETARY POLICY • Left on Riksbank board • That seat will be used as a platform for agitation • Still: No change of monetary policy • But not possible to take decisions unanimously in the future • No Left representation in new policy group • Hypothetical compromise: New (lower) inflation target and secondary employment ambitions

  11. WHAT WILL NOT COME • The MoF ‘s hidden agenda will be postponed • No structural reform of labour market • No wealth tax cut • No tax cuts on dividends • No reform of social welfare systems • The budget will not be less cyclically sensitive • Means worsening business climate

  12. STRAINS • Globalisation will put pressure on taxes • Risks of companies moving out • EMU will make Sweden marginalised • Rigid labour market will make lower unemployment difficult to achieve • How to close nuclear plants without costs? • Slippages in the budget? • Internal strains inside the SDP • Internal strains inside the Left

  13. CONCLUSION: CHANGE OF HORSES • SDP must move to the right • But difficult to change horses - the non-socialists will grow together • And tactical difficulties when the SDP want to move - how to avoid losses to the Left? • A dramatic trigger needed? • EMU referendum? • Crisis? • Snap election? • It will take some time…

  14. MARKET REACTIONS • Political risk has increased • But markets have not reacted too violently • Some was discounted • Most believe budget targets and monetary policy hold • Political uncertainty will prevail at least until Oct 13 • Then maybe some uncertainty will dissipate • But it will return as strains build • Markets may not dislike a snap election….

More Related