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Regression Analysis : How to Calculate R-Squared Coefficients Using the Least Squares Method

Regression Analysis : How to Calculate R-Squared Coefficients Using the Least Squares Method. Conducting Research on a Shoestring Budget. Presented by Jerry Henry Corporate Director of Research Herschend Family Entertainment. Presentation Overview. Why Invest in Research?

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Regression Analysis : How to Calculate R-Squared Coefficients Using the Least Squares Method

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  1. Regression Analysis: How to Calculate R-Squared Coefficients Using the Least Squares Method

  2. Conducting Research on a Shoestring Budget Presented by Jerry Henry Corporate Director of Research Herschend Family Entertainment

  3. Presentation Overview • Why Invest in Research? • How Can You Conduct Accurate Research As Inexpensively as Possible?

  4. Why Some Don’t Use Research? • It’s too expensive. • We don’t need it. We’ve been doing this for 20 years and have been just fine without it. • We already know what it will say-- so it’s a waste of time. • There’s no time to find out what our customers think. We have to make the decision now. • We don’t know who to call or how to go about it. • We tried it once 15 years ago and it didn’t help much. • We have “Bob,” and Bob knows all there is to know about our customers. • Our business never changes.

  5. Why Invest in Research?

  6. Why Invest in Research? • Media & consumer fragmentation. • Changing consumer preferences. • High price of advertising. • Competition is fierce & consumers are demanding. • That which gets measured, gets managed • Minimize risk, make better decisions • Justification • Because you want to generate more revenue

  7. So How Do I Conduct Accurate Research As Inexpensively As Possible?

  8. Inexpensive Secondary Research Don’t do it at all. See if you cannot find the answer through research someone else has paid to conduct.

  9. Travel Advance Daily email summary runs around $500 per year. traveladvancenews.com

  10. Travel Industry Indicators Monthly Newsletter runs around $100 per year. travelindicators.com

  11. TIA.org Free to members. tia.org

  12. TIA Research Report Package/ Database Series of reports runs under $1,000 per year. tia.org

  13. YPB&R/ Yankelovich National Leisure Monitor Runs around $2,000 per year. ypbr.com

  14. Smith Travel Research Lodging Outlook Newsletter Monthly Report/ Weekly Updates Run around $2,000 per year. star-online.com

  15. Research Alert Bi-Weekly Newsletter Runs around $300 per year. epmcom.com

  16. Easi Demographics Interactive software runs around $1,000 easidemographics.com

  17. SRDS Lifestyle Selector Annual publication runs less than $400 srds.com

  18. Woods and Poole Interactive software runs around $2,000 woodsandpoole.com

  19. Jerry Henry’s Research Trend Letter Free. Just leave me your business card. jhenry@jerryhenry.net

  20. But, frequently secondary research won’t answer specific questions about your visitors. And, in those cases you need primary research designed to your specifications. • The remainder of this presentation focuses upon how to conduct primary research as accurately and inexpensively as possible.

  21. Inexpensive Ways To Conduct Primary Research

  22. E-Surveys • Fastest growing research methodology in the industry. • Email surveys measure targeted customers or prospects. This is not a pop-up survey on your website. • Email messages sent to a guest or inquiry database inviting them to take an online survey. Respondents click on the link in the message and go to an online survey to complete the questionnaire.

  23. Advantages Cost Speed Visuals/ Graphics Less Intrusive Verbatim Responses to Open-Ended Questions Sample Size. Ability to survey large numbers without incremental expense. Disadvantages Vast majority of travelers have email access, but not everyone. Inability to control exactly who is taking the survey E-Surveys: Pros and Cons

  24. Examples of Types of Email Studies • Visitor Profiles • Ad Testing • Proposition Testing • Non-Visitor Studies • Brand Image Research • Brand Measurement Analyses • Constituent/ Members Surveys • Political Issues Evaluations • Traveler Satisfaction Studies • Pre/ Post Advertising Studies • Ad Effectiveness Evaluations

  25. Where to Get the Email Lists? • Inquiry Databases • Visitor/ Welcome Center Guest Registries • Past Customers • Hotel Guest Lists • Sweepstakes Entries • Contests • Rented Lists • Internet Survey Panel • …and once the asset is created, it can be used many times.

  26. Reduce the Sample Size • Fewer surveys inherently mean lower cost. • Of course, your research has to be accurate to be useful so you have to have a sample size large enough to represent your target population. But, anything beyond that can be wasteful. And, it is not unusual for businesses to conduct far more surveys than they truly need. • Assuming all of your mission-critical customer segments are of sufficient size to be credible, reducing sample size will save money. The rule of thumb is that one needs 383 surveys (per segment) to have a statistically significant representation that can be extrapolated to the entire population. But, frequently as few as 150 surveys can provide you with enough direction to make a good decision.

  27. Relationship Between Sample Size & Margin of Error Margin of Error =√ (3.8416 x (0.5 x (1-0.5)) n (sample size) Sample SizeMargin of Error 300 +/- 5.7% 383 +/- 5.0% 400 +/- 4.9% 500 +/- 4.4% 1000 +/- 3.1% 2000 +/- 2.1%

  28. Keep Looking • There is no standard pricing in the research business. What one consultant charges $25,000 to do another may charge less than $10,000. • Similarly, one data collection company may charge $25 per survey to conduct your telephone surveys while another, equally qualified company, may charge less than $10 per survey. • If you think your research bid is too high, keep looking.

  29. Consumer Discussions • Focus groups can be expensive. • Can’t afford $20,000 to conduct focus groups in a multi-million facility? Then don’t. • Many projects can be facilitated by simply having a warm and endearing member of your staff sit down in a back room with a few customers and ask a few questions. • Even with closed-circuit viewing and videotaping for management, these kinds of consumer discussions can be implemented for hundreds of dollars instead of thousands.

  30. Execute Fewer Qualifiers • Every time you add a parameter to your protocol you reduce the number of potential respondents who are qualified to answer your survey. Finding an adequate sampling of 1) Women, 2) aged 25-44, 3) living in Kansas City will take quite a few phone calls to find—even if you buy a list. • Then you have to get them to agree to take the survey. The more numbers dialed, the more expensive the research is to implement.

  31. OPM…Use Other People’s Money • Find someone else who needs similar information from the same target population—and share the research cost with them. • Good places to look are other divisions within your organization and/or other attractions or organizations within your destination, e.g. attractions, hotels, restaurants, visitorcenters, airports, festivals, etc.

  32. Annual Survey Weighted by Season • Another way to reduce expense in measuring guest demographics, behavior, satisfaction, etc. is to conduct the survey only once a year rather than daily/ weekly. • To guard against timing bias you can collect guest contact information randomly throughout the year and weight your sample in your annual survey. • This allows you to conduct fewer surveys and save money. However, it also reduces your guests ability to accurately recall specifics about their visit(s). But if it is the difference between having any visitor information or not, this works just fine.

  33. Research Templates • Get the research results, skip the consultant fee. This is a set of Excel worksheets that include the questionnaire, legend, input file, data tables and charts that automatically process information. These can be ideal for small businesses/ CVB’s who cannot necessarily afford commissioning research projects from third parties. While they do not lend themselves to customization, they are easy and inexpensive to implement. All you have to do is collect and input the data from the questionnaire in order to get a research report.

  34. Research Template Key Elements • Methodology & Sample Size • Random selection is the key to accuracy. How you collect the visitor information will determine whether your results are accurate or misleading. Avoid surveyor, selection, location, timing, etc. bias • Questionnaire • Most visitor profiles, conversion studies, economic impact studies, etc. all ask very similar questions. • Input Form & Legend • As long as the data is coded and input corrected, the calculations will automatically process. • Tables & Charts • Straight-tab tables and charts will be automatically produced.

  35. Examples • The MACVB has two different research templates available for members. These include: • Visitor Profile • Conversion Study

  36. Build an inexpensive secondary research library. Invest in e-survey methodology. Reduce the sample size when applicable. Keep looking—bid it out. Consumer discussions. Execute fewer qualifiers. Share the expense. Use OPM. Do an annual survey and weight the data. Research templates. Summary

  37. Questions? • For a copy of today’s presentation give me your business card or email me at: • Jerry HenryCorporate Director of ResearchHerschend Family Entertainment • jhenry@jerryhenry.net

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