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Can California Import Enough College Graduates to Meet Workforce Needs?

Can California Import Enough College Graduates to Meet Workforce Needs?. CREDITS TO PPIC, CPEC, GREYSTONE GROUP, LAO, COMMUNITY COLLEGE LEAGUE OF CALIFORNIA. California in 2025 … and Beyond. Previous PPIC research shows Economy will demand more highly educated workers

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Can California Import Enough College Graduates to Meet Workforce Needs?

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  1. Can California Import Enough College Graduatesto Meet Workforce Needs? CREDITS TO PPIC, CPEC, GREYSTONE GROUP, LAO, COMMUNITY COLLEGE LEAGUE OF CALIFORNIA

  2. California in 2025 … and Beyond • Previous PPIC research shows • Economy will demand more highly educated workers • Population will not have enough education to meet projected needs • Can gap be closed through migration of highly skilled workers from other states and countries?

  3. Migration Unlikely to Fill Skills Gap • Sizeable gap in projections for 2025 • 41% of jobs will require a B.A. / B.S. • 32% of adults will have a college degree • Would require an increase in high-skilled migration of unprecedented magnitude to fill the gap

  4. Outline • The coming skills gap • Recent migration patterns • Summary and policy implications

  5. How Will Economy Change? Share of total employment 45 2005 40 2025 (projection) 35 30 % 25 20 15 10 5 0 Manufacturing Services

  6. Stereotype of Service Industries No Longer Applies • Includes complex work in legal, engineering, computer services • Health and education services is fastestgrowing sector • 43% of workers have a college degree

  7. How Much Education Will Future Economy Demand? Share of total employment 2005 41 2025 40 31 30 30 % 25 22 19 20 17 16 10 0 No H.S. diploma H.S. diploma Some college B.A./B.S.or more

  8. Almost All Net Job Increase Will Occur at High Skill Levels Number of jobs by educational attainment 2005 9 2025 8 7 6 Millions 5 4 3 2 1 0 No H.S. diploma H.S.diploma Some college B.A./B.S. or more

  9. California’s Workforce,Without Migration 2005 2025 35 32 31 30 29 30 25 23 21 19 20 % 15 15 10 5 0 No H.S. diploma H.S.diploma Some college B.A./B.S. or more

  10. Education Will Improve for All Groups, But Overall Gain Will Be Small College graduates,25-64 years old 60 2005 56 2025 50 50 42 41 40 % 32 31 30 22 22 20 13 10 10 0 Allgroups Latino White Asian African American

  11. Older Adult Workers Are Best Educated, Will Retire by 2025 College graduates by age group, 2005 40 35 35 32 32 31 31 30 30 30 27 25 % 20 15 10 5 0 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64

  12. CALIFORNIA DEMOGRAPHIC DATA

  13. Large Gap Between Future Supply and Demand for Skilled Workers 2025 demand 2025 supply, no migration 9 8 7 6 Millions of workers 5 4 3 2 1 0 No H.S. diploma H.S. diploma Some college B.A./B.S.or more

  14. Outline • The coming skills gap • Recent migration patterns • Summary and policy implications

  15. Domestic Migrants Are Highly Educated … Domestic migrants, 2000-2005 No H.S. diploma 100 9 11 90 H.S. diploma 15 80 21 Some college 70 B.A./B.S. or more 28 60 % 30 50 40 30 48 38 20 10 0 Domestic in-migrants Domestic out-migrants

  16. … But California Still Faces a Net Loss Domestic migrants, 2000-2005 2,000 No H.S. diploma 1.7 million 1,750 H.S. diploma Some college 1,500 1.3 million B.A./B.S. or more 1,250 (000) 1,000 750 500 658,000 612,000 250 0 Domesticin-migrants Domesticout-migrants

  17. Domestic Migrants No Longer Dominate California’s College-Educated Population 70 Born inanother state 60 50 40 % 35 Born inCalifornia 33 31 30 20 Foreignborn 10 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005

  18. Overall Slow Down in Net Migration

  19. International Immigration of College Graduates Has Increased Substantially Foreign immigration of college graduates to California 350 300 250 200 (000) 150 100 50 0 1965-70 1975-80 1985-90 1995-2000 2000-05

  20. Share of International Migrants With College Degree at All-Time High Educational attainment of international immigrants, 2000-2005, aged 25-64 No H.S. diploma 28 B.A./B.S.or more 40 15 17 H.S. diploma Some college

  21. Large Increases in High-Skilled Migrants Necessary Average annual net migration of college graduates 180 160 Migration required to meet demand 140 120 100 (000) 80 60 40 20 0 1985-1990 1995- 2000 2000-2005 2005-2025

  22. Large Increases in High-Skilled Migrants Necessary Average annual net migration of college graduates 180 160 Migration required to meet demand 140 120 Past domestic migration 100 (000) 80 60 40 20 0 1985-1990 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2025

  23. Large Increases in High-Skilled Migrants Necessary Average annual net migration of college graduates 180 160 Migration required to meet demand 140 120 Past domestic migration Past international migration 100 (000) 80 60 40 20 0 1985-1990 1990-2000 2000-2005 2005-2025

  24. Outline • The coming skills gap • Recent migration patterns • Summary and policy implications

  25. Migration Alone UnlikelyTo Fill Skills Gap • Domestic migration no longer provides substantial net increase in college-educated workers • International immigration has become important source of skilled workers • But annual number of college-educated immigrants would need to nearly triple to fill gap

  26. EDUCATION TRENDS WON’T KEEP PACE The problem is that education trends in California are not projected to keep pace because population growth is concentrated among groups that have typically attained lower levels of education. Immigrants and the children of immigrants will make up a large percentage of the 2025 working-age population. Up to now, this group has been among the least likely to finish high school or to attend or finish college. CA 2025

  27. Future Prospects in California: • By 2010: • Hispanics, at 42% of the population, will become the majority • Industries with the greatest growth (service, transportation, and finance) require post-high school levels of education and strong language skills • Manufacturing will only have a 3.7% growth rate

  28. Labor Demand Will Outstrip Supply: Employment Policy Foundation

  29. WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS If we don’t have the educated workforce we need, we’re potentially in a double bind: Where will the tax revenues come from to fund the transfer programs or to keep roads repaired, water clean and flowing, and schools running? Is it likely that the growing proportion of older people will be a source of high tax revenues? It is particularly ironic that as the state seeks to cope with its budget woes, we may be limiting access to our public institutions of higher education, thereby potentially limiting the source of higher tax revenues from the working population in the future.

  30. Such Vast Increases in Number of College Graduate Immigrants Unlikely • Requires change in federal policy • Past federal reforms: few and far between • Current policy favors family reunification • Senate bill uses point system to shift toward skilled workers • May not happen, may not make a difference • Increasing competition for skilled workers • From other states • From other countries, including home countries

  31. What Can California Do? • Improving college participation and graduationwill help close gap • State has important role • Preparation for bachelor’s degree in K-14 • Public university systems educate majority of college graduates (76%)

  32. Public Policy Needed We conclude that it is extremely unlikely that the projected need for highly skilled workers will be met mainly through the increased migration of college-educated workers. However, increases in college participation and graduation among California’s residents could help meet these future demands. Such increases will be at least partly induced by the wage growth that will occur as highly skilled labor becomes relatively scarce. Public policy in California, a state where the vast majority of college students are in public institutions, has an important role to play in accommodating and even encouraging such increases. Can CA Import Enough Workers? PPIC

  33. Prop 92 Would Have Made a Major Difference Opening Doors for California’s Students “By aligning community college funding with growth in students, California’s community colleges will be able to open the doors to 114,824 students over the next three years.”

  34. Governor’s Budget Goes the Other Way This budget calls for reducing community college enrollment by 2% below the governor's enrollment projection, which works out to about 52,000 headcount students.

  35. WHAT YOU CAN DO? Point & Click, WWW.FACCC.ORG April 21 ralliesApril 23 hearingAdvocacy, Advocacy, Advocacy

  36. If you’re outraged at conditions, then you can’t possibly be free or happy until you devote all your time to changing them and do nothing but that. But you can’t change anything if you want to hold onto a good job, a good way of life and avoid sacrifice. Cesar Chavez, United Farm Workers

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