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2008 年 5 月

一、宏观经济 （一）国际经济形势 1 、欧美经济增长数据好于预期，但次贷阴影远未消除，美国经济衰退的可能性仍然较大 美国将 1 季度 GDP 增速由 0.6% 向上修正至 0.9% ，主要由净出口带动：净出口贡献率从 0.2 个百分点上调至 0.8 个百分点。 5 月制造业指数从 4 月份的 48.6 升至 49.6 ，略高于市场预期。欧元区一季度 GDP 季调后季比增长 0.8% ，年比增长 2.2% ，稍高于预期。 6 月初，标准普尔下调了雷曼兄弟、美林和摩根士丹利三大华尔街投资银行的信用评级，另外，标普还将美国银行、摩根大通的评级展望由稳定下调至负面。

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2008 年 5 月

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  1. 一、宏观经济 （一）国际经济形势 1、欧美经济增长数据好于预期，但次贷阴影远未消除，美国经济衰退的可能性仍然较大 美国将1季度GDP增速由0.6%向上修正至0.9%，主要由净出口带动：净出口贡献率从0.2个百分点上调至0.8个百分点。5月制造业指数从4月份的48.6升至49.6，略高于市场预期。欧元区一季度GDP季调后季比增长0.8%，年比增长2.2%，稍高于预期。 6月初，标准普尔下调了雷曼兄弟、美林和摩根士丹利三大华尔街投资银行的信用评级，另外，标普还将美国银行、摩根大通的评级展望由稳定下调至负面。 2、油价高位盘整，全球通胀压力加大 五月份原油价格突破120美圆每桶，随后一路突破130美圆，最高一度突破135美圆，随后随着美元的回升出现下跌，但依然保持在120美元每桶之上。 五月的数据显示，越南通胀率超过百分之廿五，印尼超过百分之十，菲律宾为百分之九点六，印度也逾百分之八，泰国为百分之七点六，只有韩国较低，不到百分之五。亚洲发展中经济体通胀上升，主要原因就是受国际市场油价粮价的大幅攀升影响。尽管许多亚洲国家采取政府补贴和价格控制措施，但预计通胀还会上升，并可能引发新一轮“成本——价格”螺旋式的上涨。 2014-07 2008年5月

  2. Macroeconomic • Referred to the latest economic data in July, 2014, the recovery of employment market is going on. The non-agriculture employment data is worse than the market-expectation, and labor market participation ratio is still stabilized at relative low level, the unemployment rate is back to 6.2%. From the high-frequency data (weekly jobless claims), the employment market is still on the recovery track. On the other hand, Some other real economic data performed well continuously, such as manufacture orders or consumptions, and so on. • The Euro-zone real economy continue showing the signs of stabilization at bottom, but the uncertainty of economy recovery is increasing due to the Ukraine Crisis . ECB is still preparing more QE policy in the future, which shows more signs of future loosen policies, which make the market expectation of loosen monetary policy getting stronger. • China‘s economy recovery seems to be lower than expectation base on the data in July. The engine of economy recovery is still the government supporting policies, but meanwhile the real estate market is still getting worse in short-term and moreover the finance data is much worse than expectation. Base on the high frequency data and also referred to the macro-economy data over July, the economy had not show the strong signs of internal demands recovery The structure of PMI and other economic data indicated that the de-leverage process is still in process in short-term. Although it has a short-term rebound, the growth trend of liquidity is getting slower. The inflation data was still remaining at relative low level (especially on PPI). • 2. Stock Market • In July, government continuedto eject liquidity into the economy to hedge the pressure of a sliding economy, which prolonged the bounce of Shanghai Composite/Shenzhen Composite. By the end of the month, Shanghai Composite Index rise 8.1%, and Shenzhen Composite rise 6.72%. Nonferrous metal sector had a outstanding performance.

  3. 3.Fixed-income market Bond issuance increased YOY in July. In July, 486 new bonds were issued, increasing by 2.55% with a total amount of 966.442bln, among which the central clearing and settlement company issued 128 new bonds, with a total amount of 606.702bln, accounting for 62.78% of the total; the ShangHai clearing and settlement company issued 305 new bonds this month, with a total amount of 338.43bln and accounting for 35.02% of the total; the Exchange issued 53 new bonds this month, with a total amount of 21.31bln and accounting for 2.2% of the total. Money market kept stable and the bond trading increased YOY in July. Generally, money market kept stable in July. The 1D repo was closed at 3.23%, increased by 30BP compared to last month, average turnover was 661.83bln, decreased 13.1% MOM; The 7D repo was closed at 4.02%, increased by 2BP compared to last month, average turnover was 140.87bln, increased 12.7% MOM. In July, the trading volume of the bond market in 23 trading days was 33.08 trillion, increased 57% YOY. The volume in the central clearing and settlement company was 22.68 trillion, increased 66.33% YOY, accounting for 68.56% of the total. The volume in Shanghai clearing and settlement company was 2.31 trillion, increased 305% YOY, accounting for 6.97% of the total; The volume in the Exchange was 8.09 trillion, increased 18% YOY, accounting for 24.47% of the total. There were 90750 trading (excluding counter), increased 57.24% YOY. Average daily trading volume was 985.812bln and increased 66.31% YOY. There were average 3945 trading in July each day, increased by 57.24% YOY.

  4. 4. Mutual Fund Market Close-ended funds: In June, close-ended funds changed 2.24% on average. Since the beginning of 2014, close-ended funds have changed 0.66%. Open-ended funds: In June, hybrid funds, equity funds, index funds changed 2.53%, 4.17%, 8.78% respectively. Since the beginning of 2014, capital preservation funds, hybrid funds, equity funds, index funds have changed 2.82%, 2.39%, 3.97% respectively 。 Bond funds: In June, bond funds changed 0.78% on average. Since the beginning of 2014, bond funds have changed 5.65% on average.

  5. Generali China - Unit Linked Growth Fund Description Performance Performance Chart and Allocation Market & Portfolio Comments

  6. Generali China - Unit Linked Stable Fund Description Performance Performance Chart and Allocation Market & Portfolio Comments

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