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The Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies

The Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies. Jackie Fenn. The Hype Cycle of Innovation. Peak of Inflated Expectations. Plateau of Productivity. Negative Hype. Positive Hype. Expectations. Slope of Enlightenment. Innovation Trigger. Trough of Disillusionment. Time. Expectations. Time.

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The Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies

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  1. The Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies Jackie Fenn

  2. The Hype Cycle of Innovation Peak of Inflated Expectations Plateau of Productivity Negative Hype Positive Hype Expectations Slope of Enlightenment Innovation Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Time

  3. Expectations Time Components of the Hype Cycle Negative Hype Positive Hype

  4. It's Everywhere…Technologies Source: Unilever

  5. It's Everywhere…Management Trends Source: Gartner research using Factiva

  6. It's Everywhere…Stock Prices Source: Gartner and Yahoo! Inc.

  7. It's Everywhere…Macroeconomics Source: IBM

  8. Hanging on too long Peak of Inflated Expectations Plateau of Productivity Innovation Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Hype Cycle Traps Adopting too early Expectations Adopting too late Giving up too soon Time

  9. Peak of Inflated Expectations Plateau of Productivity Innovation Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Hype Cycle Opportunities Maximizing publicity value Imagining the implications Finding your angle Acquiring talent Expanding a niche Optimizing supplier relationships Leveraging lower costs and risks Leading the mainstream wave Planning your purchases Expectations Banking your experience Getting the jump on competitors Time

  10. “The future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed.” William Gibson Photo: Midnightzulu

  11. expectations Cloud Computing E-Book Readers Social Software Suites Wireless Power Microblogging Internet TV Green IT Video Telepresence 3-D Printing Augmented Reality Mesh Networks: Sensor Surface Computers Mobile Robots Behavioral Economics Speech Recognition Online Video SOA Corporate Blogging Location-Aware Applications Home Health Monitoring Video Search Wikis Electronic Paper Public Virtual Worlds Tablet PC Idea Management time Web 2.0 Context Delivery Architecture Social Network Analysis Quantum Computing Over-the-Air Mobile Phone Payment Systems, Developed Markets 3-D Flat-Panel Displays As of July 2009 Human Augmentation RFID (Case/Pallet) Peak of Inflated Expectations Technology Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Plateau of Productivity Slope of Enlightenment Years to mainstream adoption: obsolete before plateau less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years The Gartner Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies 2009

  12. expectations time Peak of Inflated Expectations Technology Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Plateau of Productivity Slope of Enlightenment Years to mainstream adoption: obsolete before plateau less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years Reaching the plateau Source Volvo WirelessCar Speech Recognition SOA Location-Aware Applications As of July 2009

  13. expectations time Peak of Inflated Expectations Technology Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Plateau of Productivity Slope of Enlightenment Years to mainstream adoption: obsolete before plateau less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years On the slope Image:toughbook.eu/ENG/press Corporate Blogging Wikis Electronic Paper Tablet PC As of July 2009 Image: Gartner Image: www.eink.com/press/images

  14. expectations time Peak of Inflated Expectations Technology Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Plateau of Productivity Slope of Enlightenment Years to mainstream adoption: obsolete before plateau less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years Turning out of the trough Credit: IBM Hursley D. Shaw Image: Gartner Image: nokia.com/press Idea Management Web 2.0 Social Network Analysis Images:Courtesy Intermec Technologies Over-the-Air Mobile Phone Payment Systems, Developed Markets As of July 2009 RFID (Case/Pallet)

  15. expectations time Peak of Inflated Expectations Technology Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Plateau of Productivity Slope of Enlightenment Years to mainstream adoption: obsolete before plateau less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years In the trough Image: newscenter.philips.com Online Video Home Health Monitoring Public Virtual Worlds Image: Gartner As of July 2009

  16. expectations time Peak of Inflated Expectations Technology Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Plateau of Productivity Slope of Enlightenment Years to mainstream adoption: obsolete before plateau less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years Past the peak Social Software Suites Microblogging Green IT Video Telepresence Mesh Networks: Sensor Image: Cisco.com.fr/press As of July 2009 Image: voltreepower.com/presentations

  17. expectations time Peak of Inflated Expectations Technology Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Plateau of Productivity Slope of Enlightenment Years to mainstream adoption: obsolete before plateau less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years At the peak Cloud Computing E-Book Readers Speech Recognition

  18. expectations time Peak of Inflated Expectations Technology Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Plateau of Productivity Slope of Enlightenment Years to mainstream adoption: obsolete before plateau less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years Rising to the peak Wireless Power Image: witricity.com Internet TV 3-D Printing Augmented Reality Speech Recognition SOA Location-Aware Applications Image: myvu.com/press Image: zcorp.com

  19. expectations time Peak of Inflated Expectations Technology Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Plateau of Productivity Slope of Enlightenment Years to mainstream adoption: obsolete before plateau less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years Rising from the trigger Images: microsoft.com/presspass Images: irobot.com/press Image: Gartner Image: jvc-victor.co.jp/english/press Surface Computers Mobile Robots Behavioral Economics SOA Corporate Blogging Video Search Context Delivery Architecture Quantum Computing 3-D Flat-Panel Displays As of July 2009 Human Augmentation Image:eyeborg.com/presskit

  20. expectations Cloud Computing E-Book Readers Social Software Suites Wireless Power Microblogging Internet TV Green IT Video Telepresence 3-D Printing Augmented Reality Mesh Networks: Sensor Surface Computers Mobile Robots Behavioral Economics Speech Recognition Online Video SOA Corporate Blogging Location-Aware Applications Home Health Monitoring Video Search Wikis Electronic Paper Public Virtual Worlds Tablet PC Idea Management time Web 2.0 Context Delivery Architecture Social Network Analysis Quantum Computing Over-the-Air Mobile Phone Payment Systems, Developed Markets 3-D Flat-Panel Displays As of July 2009 Human Augmentation RFID (Case/Pallet) Peak of Inflated Expectations Technology Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Plateau of Productivity Slope of Enlightenment Years to mainstream adoption: obsolete before plateau less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years The Gartner Hype Cycle of Emerging Technologies 2009

  21. The Hype Cycle of Innovation: Key Questions What's here that we could be using? What's here that we're not using? Was that a deliberate decision? Expectations Time

  22. "The task is not so much to see what no one yet has seen, but to think what nobody yet has thought about that which everybody sees." Arthur Schopenhauer, 1788-1860

  23. Emerging Trends and Technologies Scenario: Technology Radar Screen

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