10-29 January 2019 Lecture "Advanced conceptual issues in climate science"

1. 10-29 January 2019Lecture "Advanced conceptual issues in climate science" Concepts of downscaling Modelling Noise Hans von Storch: Downscaling

2. Chapter 1: Exploiting the ordered dynamics: downscaling Atmospheric and oceanic dynamics are global dynamics, subject to global forcing (the differential heating by the sun). A (simulated) Earth without structures, such as continents and mountain ranges, shows the key circulation aspects, such as the meridionally organized cells, and the bands of westerly winds. By adding continents and big mountain ranges, additional detail is formed such as the land-sea contrast, the western boundary currents etc. By adding further smaller scale details regional features emerge. This is the downscaling paradigm., which is conceptually expressed by R = F(L), with some transfer function/model F. (R regional, L = large-scale) On the other hand, smaller scale dynamics, such as convection are essential for the formation of the large-scale dynamics, but not in terms of small scale detail, but in terms of an average across such details, again conditioned by the large scale state itself – this is named parameterization. The split of scales is employed when building quasi-realistic climate models, and in “downscaling” systems, for estimating regional and local change and impact, conditioned by the simulated large scale. 17 January 2019 Hans von Storch: Downscaling 2

3. Scalingcascadeand climatemodels Hans von Storch: Downscaling

4. Global climate Formation of the general circulation on an aqua planet from a state of rest (from Fischer et al., 1991) 4

5. Continental climate Long term mean of - zonal wind at 200 hpa, - geopotential, height at 500 hPa, and - band-pass filtered variance of 500 hpa geopotential height („storm track“) caused by planetary scale land-sea contrast and orographic features Risbey and Stone (1996) 17 January 2019 Hans von Storch: Downscaling 5

6. Regional climate Composites of air pressure (left) and zonal wind (right) for the day before intense precip in the Sacramento Valley (top), on the day of maximum precip (middle) Averaged over the ten most intense precip events. Risbey and Stone (1996)

7. Regional climates do not make up global climate. Instead, regional climate should be understood as the result of an interplay of global climate and regional physiographic detail. The local processes are important for the formation of the global climate not in terms of their details but through their overall statistics. Implications: • Planetary scale climate can be modeled with dynamical models with limited spatial resolution • The success on planetary scales does not imply success on regional or local scales. • The effect of smaller scales can be described summarily through parameterizations. 17 January 2019 Hans von Storch: Downscaling 7

8. Dynamical processes in a global atmospheric general circulation model 17 January 2019 8

9. Climate = statistics of weather The genesis of climate Cs = f(Cl, Φs) with Cl = given by global simulations and global re-analyses Cs = smaller scale states or statistics Φs = parameters representative for regional features f = statistical or dynamical model  “downscaling” 17 January 2019 Hans von Storch: Downscaling 9

10. Statistical downscaling: Determiningstatistics of impact variables von Storch, H. and H. Reichardt 1997: A scenario of storm surge statistics for the German Bight at the expected time of doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. - J. Climate 10, 2653-2662 Hans von Storch: Downscaling

11. The case of intra-seasonal storm-related sea level variations in Cuxhaven (at the mouth of the river Elbe) Annual percentiles of the approximately twice-daily high-htide water levels at Cuxhaven after subtraction of the linear trend in the annual mean. From top to bottom, 99%, 90%, 80%, 50%, and 10% percentiles. Units are centimeters. Hans von Storch: Downscaling

12. CanonicalCorrelation Analysis (CCA) One vector time series St is formed by the coefficients of the first four empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of winter [December–February (DJF)] monthly mean air pressure distributions. Prior to the EOF analysis, the air pressure data were centered; that is, the long-term mean distribution was subtracted so that anomalies were obtained. The other vector time series Qtis three-dimensional, featuring the 50%, 80%, and 90% percentiles of winter intra- monthly storm-related water-level distributions: Q = (q50%, q80%, q90%) The result of a CCA is pairs of vectors (ps;k, pq;k) and time coefficients as;k(t) and aq;k(t) so that St= kas,k (t) ps;k And Qt= kaq,k (t) pq;k The coefficients as,1 and aq,1 have maximum correlation, the coefficients as,2 and aq,2 have maximum correlation after subtraction of the 1st components, and so forth The analysis describes which anomalous monthly mean large-scale pressure anomalies in winter over the North Atlantic are associated with which intra-monthly anomalies of 50%, 80% and 90% percentiles of storm water variations at Cuxhaven Hans von Storch: Downscaling

13. First two characteristics patterns ps;1 (top) and ps;2 (bottom) of monthly mean air pressure anomalies over the northeast Atlantic. The coefficients of these CCA vectors share a maximum correlation with the coefficients of the water-level percentile patterns given on the right. Units are hPa. Time series of 90%percentiles of intra-monthly storm-related water-level variations in Cuxhaven, as derived from in situ observations (solid) and estimated from the monthly mean air pressure field (dashed).

14. Hans von Storch: Downscaling

15. Statistical downscaling: generating time series through conditional weather generators Busuioc, A., and H. von Storch, 2003: Conditional stochastic model for generating daily precipitation time series, Clim. Res. 24, 181-195 Hans von Storch: Downscaling

16. Rainfall as a 2-state first-order Markov chain • A „rainfall generator“ is a stochastic process, which mimics the behavior of rainfall as a sequence of either „wet“ or „dry“ days. A specific rainfall generator makes use of four parameters: • The probability to have wet day following another wet dayProb(wt|wt-1) = p11ThenProb(dt|wt-1) = 1-p11 • The probability to have wet day following a dry dayProb(wt|dt-1) = p01ThenProb(dt|dt-1) = 1-p01 • c) The amount of rainfall on a „wet“ day is described by a  -Distribution (k,β) with „shape“ parameter k and „scale“ parameter β. The four parameters are p11 , p10 , k , and  = kβ (the mean).They can be estimated from the data. Hans von Storch: Downscaling

17. Patterns of the first CCA pair of winter mean SLP and winter parameters of precipitation distribution derived from the first half of the observations (1901–1949)

18. Winter standardized anomalies of the precipitation distribution parameters for 1901–1999 derived from observations (solid line) and derived indirectly from the observed European-scale SLP anomalies using the downscaling model (dashed line) . The downscaling model was fitted to the 1901–1949 data Hans von Storch: Downscaling

19. Dynamicaldownscaling:Regionalmodelsasdownscalingtoolconventionalset-upDynamicaldownscaling:Regionalmodelsasdownscalingtoolconventionalset-up Hans von Storch: Downscaling

20. Regional atmospheric modelling: nesting into a global state 17 January 2019 Hans von Storch: Downscaling 20

21. Regional atmospheric models serve the purpose to describe the dynamics at regional and smaller scales well. Ideally, regional models would return one unique solution given a set of boundary values. However, this is not the case. Mathematically, there is no unique solution for a given set of each boundary values. The problem is not a boundary value / initial value problem. A numerical problem is that the wave propagation velocity depends on grid resolution, so that waves travelling within and outside the limited area will arrive at the outgoing boundary at different times. This problem was solved by introducing the sponge zone in 1972, by Hughes Davis. The sponge-zone does not solve the problem of the non-existence of a well defined solution of the boundary value problem. 17 January 2019 Hans von Storch: Downscaling 21

22. Big Brother Experiment In the Big Brother experiment, a global simulation BB with high resolution is done. A subarea is cut out, and coarsened values of BB at the boundary prescribed; then LAM is run. It turns out that – at least in case of a strongly flushed flow – the small scale dynamical features of BB reappear in the LAM simulation. Denis, B., R. Laprise, D. Caya and J. Cote, 2002: Downscaling ability of one-way nested regional climate models: The Big brother experiment. Climate Dyn. 18, 627-646. 17 January 2019 Hans von Storch: Downscaling 22

23. Evolution of the specific humidity at 700 hPa during the first 48 hours. The inner squares of the right column correspond to the little-brother domain while the area outside these squares are the filtered big-brother humidity used to nest the little brother. Denis, B., R. Laprise, D. Caya and J. Cote, 2002: Downscaling ability of one-way nested regional climate models: The Big brother experiment. Climate Dyn. 18, 627-646. 23

24. Rinke, A., and K. Dethloff, 2000: On the sensitivity of a regional Arctic climate model to initial and boundary conditions. Clim. Res. 14, 101-113. When formulated as a boundary value problem, and integrated on a grid, an ensemble of solutions emerges. It is unknown (to me), how this ensemble of solutions look like. Internal variability (unprovoked by external factors = “noise”) in a regional climate model Ensemble standard deviations of 500 hPa height [m²/s²] 17 January 2019 Hans von Storch: Downscaling 24

25. In some cases, the kinetic energy in the interior of the nested grid can not be maintained. Lateral constraint too weak to maintain large-scale in the interior if flushing time too long (Example: May 1993; strongly non-zonal flow - Castro and Pielke, 2004) small-- large integration area 17 January 2019 Hans von Storch: Downscaling 25

26. Dynamicaldownscaling: Large scaleconstraining(spectralnudging) Hans von Storch: Downscaling

27. global model variance Insufficiently resolved Well resolved Spatial scales Hans von Storch: Downscaling

28. regional model variance Insufficiently resolved Well resolved Spatial scales Added value

29. A mathematically well-posed problem is achieved when the task of describing the dynamics of determining regional and smaller scales is formulated as a state space problem, which is conditioned by large scales. • Physically, this means that genesis of regional climate is better framed as a downscaling problem and not as a boundary value problem. Hans von Storch: Downscaling

30. RCM Physiographic detail 3-d vector of state Known large scale state projection of full state on large-scale scale Large-scale (spectral) nudging 17 January 2019 30

31. Useful quantities to check Similarity of large-scale state Unchanged variance of large scales Dissimilarity of regional scales Increased variance on regional scales Distributions of quantities in physiographic complex regions Extremes Regional dynamical features, such as polar lows, tropical storms, medicanes Expected added value Statistics and events on scales, which are not well resolved for the global system, but sufficiently resolved for the regional model. In particular, increased variance on smaller scales. No improvement of the dynamics and events on scales, which are already well done by the global system 17 January 2019 Hans von Storch: Downscaling 31

32. Nudgingofthe large scales global Pattern correlation coefficients for zonal wind at 500 hPabetweenthe global reanalyses and the RCM withstandardforcing via the lateral boundariesand the RCM withspectralnudging Northern Europe von Storch, H., H. Langenberg and F. Feser, 2000: A spectral nudging technique for dynamical downscaling purposes. Mon. Wea. Rev. 128: 3664-3673 regional Hans von Storch: Downscaling

33. Improved presentation of in coastal regions ERA-I-driven multidecadal simulation with RCM CCLM over East Asia (李德磊, 2015) Grid resolution: 0.06o Employing spectral nudging (wind above 850 hPa, for scales > 800 km) Usage of Quikscat-windfields (QS) over sea as a reference Considering ratios 2QS:2ERA and 2QS:2RCM Determining Brier Skill score for all marine grid boxes B = 1 – (RCM-QS)2 / (ERA-QS)2 Hans von Storch: Downscaling

34. Li D., H. von Storch, and B. Geyer, 2016: High resolution wind hindcastovertheBohai and Yellow Sea in East Asia: evaluation and wind climatologyanalysis; Journal ofGeophysical Research - Atmospheres 121, 111-129 Quikscat/ CCLM regional simulation QuikSCAT/ERA I-reanalysis Hans von Storch: Downscaling

35. QuikSCAT: Added Value – Brier skill score vs. ERA Open Ocean: No value added by dynamical downscaling Coastal region: Added Value in complex coastal areas • Li D., H. von Storch, and B. Geyer, 2016: High resolution wind hindcastovertheBohai and Yellow Sea in East Asia: evaluation and wind climatologyanalysis; Journal ofGeophysical Research - Atmospheres 121, 111-129 17 January 2019 35

36. Li D., H. von Storch, and B. Geyer, 2016: High resolution wind hindcastovertheBohai and Yellow Sea in East Asia: evaluation and wind climatologyanalysis; Journal ofGeophysical Research - Atmospheres 121, 111-129 Coastalstations Offshore stations Comparison of CCLM (left-panel, y-axis) and ERA-I (right-panel, y-axis) wind data with observations from two coastal stations and two offshore wind observations (x-axis). Scatter plots (grey dots), qq-plots and several statistical measures 17 January 2019 Hans von Storch: Downscaling 36

37. Improved representation of sub-synoptic phenomena NCEP-driven multidecadal simulation with RCM CLM over North Pacific (Chen et al., 2012, 2013, 2014) Grid resolution: about 0.4o Employing spectral nudging (wind above 850 hPa, for scales > 800 km) Simulation of sub-synoptic phenomena Polar lows in the Northern North Pacific Hans von Storch: Downscaling

38. ((Chen F.), B. Geyer, M. Zahn and H. von Storch, 2012: Towards a multidecadal climatology of North Pacific Polar Lows employing dynamical downscaling. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 23, 291-303 North Pacific Polar Lows North Pacific Polar Low on 7 March 1977 NOAA-5 infrared satellite image at 09:58UTC 7th March 1977 38

39. Improved representation of forcing fields for impact models NCEP-driven multidecadal simulation with RCM REMO in Europe Gridresolution: 0.5 o Employing spectral nudging (wind above 850 hPa, for scales > 800 km) 1948-2010 simulation Wind and air pressure used to drive models of sea level and circulation of marginal seas (not shown) for describing currents and sea level Wind used to drive models of the statistics of surface waves (ocean waves) in coastal seas (North Sea). Hans von Storch: Downscaling

40. Extreme wind events simulated compared to local observations simuliert Weisse, pers. comm. 17 January 2019 Hans von Storch: Downscaling 40

41. Gerd Gayer, pers. comm., 2001 significantwaveheight [days] wave direction [days] 17 January 2019 Hans von Storch: Downscaling 41

42. The CoastDat-effort at the Institute for Coastal Research@HZG www.coastdat.de • Long-term, high-resolution reconstructions (60 years) of present and recent developments of weather related phenomena in coastal regions as well as scenarios of future developments (100 years) • Northeast Atlantic and northern Europe. • Assessment of changes in storms, ocean waves, storm surges, currents and regional transport of anthropogenic substances. • Extension to other regions and to ecological parameters. Applications • many authorities with responsibilities for different aspects of the German coasts • economic applications by engineering companies (off-shore wind potentials and risks) and shipbuilding company • Public information Integration area used in HZG reconstruction and regional scenarios 17 January 2019 Hans von Storch: Downscaling 42

43. Some applications of • Ship design • Navigational safety • Offshore wind • Interpretation of measurements • Oils spill risk and chronic oil pollution • Ocean energy • Scenarios of storm surge conditions • Scenarios of future wave conditions Weisse, pers. comm. Wave Energy Flux [kW/m] Currents Power [W/m2] 17 January 2019 Hans von Storch: Downscaling 43

44. Conclusion … Downscaling (Cs = f(Cl,Φs)) works with respect to atmospheric dynamics – ocean dynamics: presently examined (Zhang M, and Tang S.). Several options, - statistical downscaling, generating characteristics of distributions and processes, such as monthly means, intra-monthly percentiles, parameters of Markov processes etc.- dynamical downscaling using „state-space“ formulation of large-scale constraining (spectral nudging) Added value on - medium scales (in particular coastal regions and medium scale phenomena (in particular storms)- in generating regional impact variables, in particular wind for storm surges and ocean waves. Downscaling allows the generation of homogeneous data sets (i.e., data sets of uniform quality across many decades of years) Hans von Storch: Downscaling