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Forecasting of long-term unemployment at the individual level

Forecasting of long-term unemployment at the individual level. Tomáš Soukup RILSA Czech Republic tomas.soukup@rilsa.cz. Content. Introduction Theoretical approach (Job Search Theory) Data Results Future developement. Introduction. Macro versus micro approach

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Forecasting of long-term unemployment at the individual level

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  1. Forecasting of long-term unemployment at the individual level Tomáš Soukup RILSA Czech Republic tomas.soukup@rilsa.cz

  2. Content • Introduction • Theoretical approach (Job Search Theory) • Data • Results • Future developement tomas.soukup@rilsa.cz

  3. Introduction • Macro versus micro approach • Use of forecasting at the individual level • defining vulnerable groups at the LM • forecasting the length of unemployment • segmentation of claimants • areas of services at labour offices (zones) • precautions in social policy • Predicting the effects of ALMP • Foreign experience tomas.soukup@rilsa.cz

  4. Theoretical approach 1 • Job Search Theory H = f (V, c U) H – final result of the job search process, matching demand and supply in the labour market V – number of Vacancies U – number of Unemployed c – job search efficiency on the part of the claimant tomas.soukup@rilsa.cz

  5. Theoretical approach 2 The success of the job search is principally affected by: • The situation in the labour market • The availability of vacancies and employer discrimination(Queuing Theory, Concept of Human Capital, Discrimination, Segmentation Theories) • Job seeker motivation (Nominal Flexibility, Basic incentives for work, Concept of Feeling Efficacy) tomas.soukup@rilsa.cz

  6. Data and method • Need for continuous data • Panel survey 2000 - 2001, 2 waves • N=759 • Binary logistic regression tomas.soukup@rilsa.cz

  7. Output variable • “Found a job in 6 months” • 1 found a job • 0 didn’t find a job. • Theprobability of finding a job within the next 6 months was predicted. tomas.soukup@rilsa.cz

  8. Subjective assessment of own chances Total duration of past unemployment Plans concerning exit from the labour market Number of claimants per one vacancy (in region and education) Nominal flexibility Woman with children up to 7 years Willingness to change area of work Promise of a new job School leaver Main input variables tomas.soukup@rilsa.cz

  9. Results 1 tomas.soukup@rilsa.cz

  10. Results 2 Prediction versus reality tomas.soukup@rilsa.cz

  11. Results 3 tomas.soukup@rilsa.cz

  12. Future development • Analysis of register data • Prediction of the effects of ALMP • Scheme for practical use at labour offices tomas.soukup@rilsa.cz

  13. Thank you very much for your attention Tomas Soukup RILSA, CZ tomas.soukup@risla.cz tomas.soukup@rilsa.cz

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