Presentation Transcript

1. Program Planning for Maximum Impact

   Spring Training Workshop Lena Etuk, Social Demographer April 9, 2013
2. The Nature of Program Planning Varying purposes Create new programming Adjust current programming End old programming Different directions Inputs-focused Outcomes-focused
3. Program Planning Cycle Maximum Impact Zone
4. Needs Assessment
5. Focus Today: PHASE I of NA Get organized Form a Needs Assessment Committee (NAC) Find out what is already known or available from existing data sources about: What is What should be Causes of gap Consequences of gap Potential solutions for gap Synthesize the data and decide to move to Phase II or Phase III
6. Phase I Needs Assessment Case Study Issue of concern: rising Latino population, and not sure if RCE is/I am meeting their needs generally or needs for decision-making data What can I do to help meet needs of Latino population? What can I do to better inform decision makers about Latino population? Review available statistics about the current Latino situation and the ideal situation Make sense of the statistics Identify causes and consequences of gaps Determine if more data are needed
7. An approach to gathering existing statistics for needs assessment
8. When you explore statistics look out for… Deviations from a benchmark State Nation Similar communities Target level Larger geography or group of people Particular time point Representation in population Information about methods Discrepancies across sources
9. Keep a set of questions in mind Forefront of mind What’s going on among Latinos in Oregon? What should be? Where are the assets among this population? What’s surprising? How do surprising findings challenge assumptions? What further questions are we asking ourselves? Back of the mind Causes of gap? Consequences of gap? Potential solutions for gap?
10. With Rural Communities Explorer 1. Explore Overall Trends
11. % of Population Latino
12. % Latino by Census Tract (2007-2011 ACS) 0.0% - 5.6% 5.7% - 11.6% 11.7% - 21.2% 21.2% - 36.1% 36.2% - 71.1%
13. % Latino by Census Tract (2007-2011 ACS) - WV metro zoom-in 0.0% - 5.6% 5.7% - 11.6% 11.7% - 21.2% 21.2% - 36.1% 36.2% - 71.1%
14. Counties with highest Latino populations (2007-11 ACS) Malheur (31%); ~10,000 Morrow (31%); ~3,000 Hood River (29%); ~6,000 Marion (24%); ~74,000
15. 2. Explore Sub-Trends
16. Sub-trends Compare Latinos to state at large with data from US Census Bureau Demographic variables Social variables Economic variables
17. Demographic Variables Younger median age More families with kids Larger household and family sizes Higher fertility rate Less residential stability Mostly engage in regionalized migration, but also experience farther within-state migration
18. Malheur continues to be a Destination County
19. Hood River County exodus, but stay close
20. Social Variables Higher percentage of Latinos are enrolled in K-8, and lower percentage is enrolled in college or graduate school Latinos = 19% of K-8; Latinos = 8% of higher ed enrollees Lower educational attainment among adults
21. Socio-economic Variables Higher labor force participation Higher employment rate Top occupations Service Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations Top industries Arts, entertainment, and recreation Accommodation and food service Manufacturing
22. Socio-economic Variables More likely to earn income from wages and salaries Lower full-time year-round median earnings greater disparity among men, than women Higher poverty rate Higher SNAP recipient rate (23%), but equitably represented among recipients (12%)
23. 3. Identify Related Trends
24. Identify Related Trends/Missing Information Consult with experts (NAC) Refer to practitioner reports CAUSA PEW Hispanic Center Review literature Integration/Assimilation, Education, Political representation, Economics Griffin, JD, & Newman, B. 2007. The Unequal Representation of Latinos and Whites. The Journal of Politics, 69(4):1032-1046. Lee, Y. & Aytac, IA. 1998. Intergenerational Financial Support among Whites, African Americans, and Latinos. Journal of Marriage and Family, 60(2):426-441 Kalogrides, D. 2009. Generational Status and Academic Achievement among Latino High School Students: Evaluating the Segmented Assimilation Theory. Sociological Perspectives 52(2): 159-183
25. Important Related Trends Immigrant policies Integration/Assimilation Education Economics Political representation
26. 4. Explore Related Trends
27. Related Trends Integration/Assimilation Immigrant policies Political representation Economics Education Foreign-born vs. US-born Policy impacts Representation of Latinos in public office Circulation of $s School enrollment
28. Foreign-born vs. US-born Foreign-born Latinos = 38% of OR Latinos (and declining) Foreign-born: 20 years older (median age) than US-born Latinos Less educated Earn $10,000 less Lower unemployment More likely to work construction and ag. industries, and service occupations Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of 2010 ACS (1% IPUMS sample)
29. Foreign-born vs. US-born In 2010, US-born Latinos come close to non-Latino Whites in the % with some college In 2007, US-born Latinos came close to non-Latino Whites in median household income, but from 2007 to 2010 that grew to a $12,000 difference While median income of whites declined by $2,000 from 2007 to 2010, the median income of US-born Latinos declined by $10,000 Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of 2007 & 2010 ACS (1% IPUMS sample)
30. Policy impacts SB 1080 (required proof of legal US residence to obtain OR driver’s license) Social burdens placed on families of undocumented Fear of deportation Labor shortages will be concentrated in certain industries (crop production, ag support, textile mills, and food production) (Assessment of the socio-economic impacts of SB 1080 on Immigrant groups. 2011. ODOT. SR 500-270.) HB 2787 - Tuition Equity Bill (in-state tuition for children of undocumented) Proposed SB 833 (4-yr driver’s license w/o proof of legal residence)
31. Latinos in public office % of County Officials Latino ~2% of elected offices held by Latinos (2012) Source: Northwest News Network
32. Economics $22 billion transferred from US to Latin American countries in 2012 as private remittances (Bureau of Economic Analysis) $13.5 billion transferred from US to Mexico in 2012 Economic impact on Oregon $7 billion purchasing power in 2009 (Selig Center, 2009) Rate of growth among Latino entrepreneurs 4x higher than total business growth (1997 & 2007 US Census Survey of Business Owners)
33. Education 8% of Oregonians enrolled in higher-ed were Latino (ACS, 06-10) 18% of Oregonians enrolled in K-12 were Latino (ACS, 06-10)
34. 5. Make Sense of the data
35. Interpreting the data Interpretation requires: Knowing the unit of analysis Understanding how accurate the data are Understanding what the stats you’ve created mean and imply (e.g., population % change ’90-’00: represents in-migration or changes to the birth and death rates?) Understanding the strengths and limitations of the stats
36. Telling the story Answer a series of questions with the data What’s going on among Latinos in Oregon? What’s surprising? Where are the gaps? Where are the assets among this population? What further questions are we asking ourselves? Discussion
37. My take on the statistical story about Latinos in Oregon… Growing population with unique attributes (age, labor, language) Over-represented in K-12 and under-represented in higher-ed Contribute greatly to our economy and society Disadvantaged and vulnerable group, that may improve its advantage in future generations Reliant on allies and coalitions to make policy decisions that benefit them
38. Gap Areas Gap between Latino and non-Latino socioeconomic outcomes: Educational attainment Income Poverty Under-representation of Latinos in higher-education Under-representation of Latinos in politics, despite influential policies being established affecting this population
39. Consequences Low socioeconomic outcomes Demand for social services Health and other outcomes Inequitable educational representation Low-skill and low-wage work concentration Inequitable political representation Recent policy outcomes appear favorable Do we need more information about consequences? Which gap area deserves more attention?
40. Causes Low socioeconomic outcomes Immigration history Concentration in low-wage jobs Inequitable educational representation Age structure Immigration legacy Inequitable political representation Not enough information from stats Do we have enough information about causes?
41. Preliminary solutions to high priority needs (gaps) Low socioeconomic outcomes Improve wages of jobs held by Latinos Improve the job prospects of Latinos Others? Inequitable representation in education Wait for population to age
42. Solutions that I can handle… Socioeconomic outcomes Increase the amount of information I share about outcomes among Latinos Share information w/advocacy groups that are working on improving the wages of jobs held by Latinos and the job prospects for Latinos
43. Our secondary statistical analysis prompts more questions About Level 2’s needs How are data being used for advocacy or for educating non-Latinos? How can data be used to help improve the quality of life for Latinos? How is it being used? How should it be used? Causes & Consequences …Phase II is necessary…
44. Program Planning Cycle Maximum Impact Zone
45. Questions?
46. Training Evaluation For live streaming viewers: Either type this link into your URL, or email me so I can send you the link after this training http://survey.qualtrics.com/SE/?SID=SV_eWgfoWdsyZFiJHn Lena Etuk – lena.etuk@oregonstate.edu