Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:

1. Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making28th- 29th September 2006 Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts: Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’ Effie Amanatidou1, Ken Guy2 1University of Manchester/OPTIMA, PhD researcher – ATLANTIS, Director STP Unit 2 Wise Guys Ltd., Director

2. Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’ Presentation Contents Research Problem and Purpose Statement Interpretation of Foresight impacts • Conceptual Framework of emerging societies • Contribution of Foresight Developing an Impact Assessment Framework • Objectives Hierarchy • Approach for developing an IAF - Foresight system • Approach for developing an IAF - Wider Environment • The Logic Model Conclusions

3. Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’ Research Problem & Purpose Statement Lack of common impact assessment framework for foresight exercises irrespective of case - specific aims, objectives, levels and focus of implementation Need for a common impact assessment framework for good practices, coordination and benchmarking • Need for a ‘higher level’ of reference • ‘Lisbon’ agenda and more participatory governance Purpose Statement • develop an impact assessment framework as a tool with which to examine the impact of foresight exercises in developing a more participatory ‘knowledge society’, thus enabling the assessment of foresight according to criteria common across different countries or regions.

4. Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’ Social move. ICTs Kbased Indus. Social trust Informed publics Ways K mediated Active participation Servi ices Coping with risk society Dealing with uncertainty Knowledge creation, absorption learning Intang ibles Actors allign Innovation- based growth Net- working Skills- compet. Social capital Tech. change Social change Conceptual Framework for the Emerging Societies Fact- driver Condition factor K-based input economy Dominant role of knowledge

5. Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’ Social move. ICT Ways K mediated Contribution of Foresight Fact- driver Condition factor Kbased Indus Social trust Informed publics K-based input economy Active participation Servi ices Coping with risk society Dominant role of knowledge Dealing with Uncertainty Knowledge creation, absorption learning Intang ibles Actors allign Innovation- based growth Net- working Skills- compet Social capital Tech. change Social change

6. Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’ Objectives Hierarchy for Foresight exercises Higher Level Goals Related Preconditions Specific Skills Competences Technological and Social change (Social) Trust CR KS Intermediate Goals IP DU AP INNO CDA AA N SC Lower Level Goals Higher Level Goals: CR: Coping with the ‘risk society’ KS: Enhancing the ‘knowledge society’ Lower Level Goals: AA: Aligning actors N: Facilitating networking SC: Increasing levels of social capital Intermediate Goals: IP: Creating informed publics DU: Dealing with uncertainty AP: Promoting active participation INNO: Supporting innovation-based growth CDA: Increasing knowledge creation, diffusion and absorption

7. Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’ Actors Principle/ criteria DU IP Processes Objectives Principles / criteria Principles/ criteria CDA SC AP AA N Principles/ criteria Inputs Approach for developing the Impact Assessment Framework – Foresight System (based on the cases of UK, Sweden and Malta) • Principles / criteria related to actors: • Non-fragmented institutions • Mutual interests – common goals • Interdependence • Principles / criteria related to objectives: • Clear, non-divergent objectives • Well grounded logic of intervention • Clear focus • Principles / criteria related to processes: • managing of expectations • openness • transparency • inclusiveness - early public engagement • media coverage, promotion Principles / criteria related to inputs / outputs: quality relevancetiming

8. Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’ factors factors factors factors Approach for developing the Impact Assessment Framework – Wider Environment (based on the cases of UK, Sweden and Malta) • Degree of inter-institutional communication and collaboration • Degree of inter-disciplinary collaboration • Degree of public-private sector divide • Changing political circumstances • Interested customers with absorptive capacities • Engage those who make policy, have ability to take action Institutional settings Actors’ configuration - communication Actors Objectives Structure of innovation process – advance-ment of KS Processes Governance Policy-making culture Foresight System Wider Environment • Society in favour of change / innovation • Perception of other actors’ roles, and interests • Degree of divisiveness and individuality in the society • Generation gap • Fragmentation in policy system • Degree of development of planning processes and consultation • Degree of party political divide • Timing and level of commitment Inputs Socio-cultural context

9. Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’ Actors Principle/ criteria Processes Objectives Principles / criteria Principles/ criteria Principles/ criteria Inputs Impact Assessment Framework - Foresight System (specifically for impacts related to networking and actors’ alignment) • Principles / criteria related to actors: • Inter-institutional communication and collaboration • Mutual interests • Low dependence • Principles / criteria related to processes: • inclusiveness • flexibility • Sustainability of networks created • Principles / criteria related to objectives: • Goals alignment AA N • Principles / criteria related to inputs / outputs: • compatibility / complementary areas of expertise

10. Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’ factors factors factors factors Impact Assessment Framework – Wider Environment (specifically for impacts related to networking and actors’ alignment) • Alignment of • solution with funder gover/nce • solutions and current trends • players with other players • compet. and collab. techn. • Degree of inter-institutional communication and collaboration • Low dependencies • Goals alignment Institutional settings Actors’ configuration - communication Actors Objectives Structure of innovation process – advance-ment of KS Processes Governance Policy-making culture Foresight System Wider Environment • Trust • Perceptions alignment • Peoples individual characteristics • Social context • The degree the government and regulatory contexts promotes networking Inputs Socio-cultural context

11. Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’ The Logic Model (incorporating Objectives Hierarchy-Foresight System-Wider Environment) Foresight System internal criteria related to: Actors Processes Objectives Inputs/ Outputs Wider environment external factors related to: Institutional settings, Actors’ configuration – communication Governance / Policy-making culture Socio-cultural context Structure of innovation process – advancement of KS Upper System Goals CR KS Strategic Goals/Impacts IP DU AP INNO CDA Lower level Goals/Impacts AA N SC Outcomes immediate impacts New combinations stakeholders Visions for the future Changes of mindsets Multi-disciplinary research …… Foresight activities Scoping Appointment of experts Commission studies, workshops Communication of findings Inputs Funding, Personnel, Past results, Data, Experts, etc.

12. Interpreting Foresight Process Impacts:Steps towards the Development of a Framework conceptualising the Dynamics of ‘Foresight Systems’ Conclusions • It is possible to assess foresight exercises in terms of their contribution to more participatory ‘knowledge societies’. • In doing this it is important to understand how foresight influences specific impact areas. • This in turn presupposes understanding of the dynamics of foresight systems and their interaction with the wider environment. • It is possible to build models that help identify internal criteria and external factors to understand how a foresight system works and how it should work. • Each impact area should also be studied separately in order not to miss additional area-specific internal criteria and external factors that have to be considered. • The impact assessment framework can then be built according to the Logic Model approach.