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The use of the BelEUROS model for policy support at LNE

The use of the BelEUROS model for policy support at LNE. TEMIS-workshop 8/9 October 2007 on behalf of: Mirka Van der Elst Flemish Ministry of the Environment, Nature and Energy (Department LNE) Mirka.vanderelst@lne.vlaanderen.be Tel. +32 2 553 11 23. Contents.

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The use of the BelEUROS model for policy support at LNE

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  1. The use of the BelEUROS model for policy support at LNE TEMIS-workshop 8/9 October 2007 on behalf of: Mirka Van der Elst Flemish Ministry of the Environment, Nature and Energy (Department LNE) Mirka.vanderelst@lne.vlaanderen.be Tel. +32 2 553 11 23

  2. Contents • Tasks of the Department LNE in Flanders • Flanders in Europe • Example of a policy related study with the BelEUROS model • Conclusions and Recommendations

  3. 1) Tasks of the Department LNE • Policy support of the Flemish Minister of the Environment concerning air quality, climate change and the effects of environmental pollution on human health • Elaboration of measures against air pollution by e.g. particulate matter, NO2, ozone and heavy metals • Specific measures for specific target groups in Flanders, such as the different industrial sectors, traffic and transportation, energy production, agriculture, … • Coordination of the Flemish activities in international agreements, e.g. the National Emission Ceilings (NEC) for NOx, SO2, NMVOC’s and NH3 and the emission reduction targets for greenhouse gases

  4. 2000 2010 2020 Rural PM2,5 concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3] originating from known anthropogenic sources (excl. sec. org. aerosols) 2) Flanders - Europe: PM2.5 Source: IIASA - EMEP

  5. 3) Attainment of EU Air Quality Levels: NO2 annual mean concentration Since 2001 increase in NO2 due to higher O3-background and higher NO2/NO-ratio in traffic emissions  problems with EU limit value

  6. 3) NO2 in Belgium: attainment analysis 2005 - 2010 – 2015 using CLE emission scenario Annualmean (µg/m³) 2010 2005 Calculation of “background” concentrations with BelEUROS model 2015

  7. 3) Attainability of NO2 limit values in Belgian cities Urban Background (annual mean) µg/m³ Street Increment (narrow busy streets) µg/m³ (*) Annual mean (narrow busy streets) µg/m³ 2005 30 - 40 25 55 - 65 2010 25 - 35 25 50 - 60 2015 22.5 - 32.5 20 42.5 - 52.5 Year EU mean annual limit value for NO2: 40 µg/m3 (*) Air pollution at street level, EEA technical report 1/2006 Limit value might be attained in urban background locations but not in busy streets, even not in 2015

  8. 3) PM10 in Belgium: attainment analysis 2005 - 2010 – 2015 using CLE emission scenario Annualmean (µg/m³) 2005 2010 Calculation of “background” concentrations with BelEUROS model 2015

  9. 3) Attainability of PM10 limit values in Belgian cities 2005 30 - 35 10 40 - 4573 - 94 2010 27.5 - 32.5 10 37.5 - 42.562 - 83 2015 25 - 30 5 30 - 35 31- 52 Urban Background (annual mean) µg/m³ Street Increment (narrow busy streets) µg/m³ (*) Annual mean (narrow busy streets) µg/m³ Number of days daily limit value >50 Year EU limit values: annual limit: mean value 40 µg/m3, daily limit value: 35 days with exceedances (*) Air pollution at street level, EEA technical report 1/2006 Annual mean limit might be attained in part of busy streets, daily limit value will not be attained in most streets, even not in 2015

  10. 3) PM2.5 in Belgium: attainment analysis 2005 - 2010 – 2015 using CLE emission scenario Annualmean (µg/m³) 2005 2010 Calculation of “background” concentrations with BelEUROS model 2015

  11. 3) Attainability of PM2.5 limit values in Belgian cities 2005 22.5 - 25 8 30.5 - 33 2010 17.5 - 22.5 8 25.5 - 30.5 2015 15 - 20 4 19-24 Urban Background (annual mean) µg/m³ Street Increment (narrow busy streets) µg/m³ (*) Annual mean (narrow busy streets) µg/m³ Year planned EU limit value: annual mean value 25 µg/m3 (*) Air pollution at street level, EEA technical report 1/2006 Annual mean limit might be attained in busy streets, but only in 2015

  12. 4) Conclusions and recommendations for the further work Conclusion: Long range transport of air pollutants influences the background concentrations of e.g. O3, NO2 and PM10 in Belgium. Long range transport may even play a role in the non-attainment of EU limit values for certain pollutants. Recommendation: Improve the representation of long range transport of air pollutants in the BelEUROS model by using more realistic boundary conditions, especially for O3, NO2 and PM10.

  13. Information • More information on research projects carried out by order of LNE can be found on website http://www.lne.be/themas/luchtverontreiniging

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