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The latest products and tools provided by JMA

The latest products and tools provided by JMA. Kenji KISHIMOTO National Typhoon Center JMA. Major points of this presentation. JMA provides a powerful tool for satellite image analysis of tropical cyclone.

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The latest products and tools provided by JMA

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  1. The latest products and tools provided by JMA Kenji KISHIMOTO National Typhoon Center JMA

  2. Major points of this presentation • JMA provides a powerful tool for satellite image analysis of tropical cyclone. • On 22 April 2009, JMA started the operations for 5-day tropical cyclone track forecast. • Since 22 April, JMA, as RSMC Tokyo, has improved the following products and tools for the Typhoon Committee Members. - Numerical Typhoon Prediction Web Site - RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center Website - RSMC Tropical Cyclone Advisory - RSMC Guidance for Forecast

  3. Real-time JMA products and tools for TC operations Numerical Weather Prediction RSMC Guidance for Forecast -TC prediction of JMA/GSM -TC prediction of JMA/Typhoon EPS (FXPQ20-25 RJTD: via GTS) Numerical Typhoon Prediction Web Site -TC prediction of major NWP centers in the world (for registered users) JMA EPS-WEB -JMA one-week EPS products (for registered users) RSMC Data Serving System -GPV data of global atmosphere, global wave (for registered users) Observation & analysis SAREP-tropical cyclone (TC) satellite image analysis (TCNA20/21 RJTD, IUCC10 RJTD: via GTS) RSMC Data Serving System –surface, upper air, atmospheric motion vector (for registered users) GMSLPD-satellite image analysis tool Operational forecast RSMC TC Advisory-for 3-day forecast (WTPQ20-25 RJTD: via GTS) RSMC TC Advisory-for 5-day track forecast (WTPQ50-55 RJTD: via GTS) Prognostic reasoning (WTPQ30-35 RJTD: via GTS) RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center Website -for 3-day forecast & 5-day track forecast (open) Its detail and demo Tanaka-san’s lecture Komori-san’s lecture

  4. GMSLPD (GMS image viewer for Dvorak analysis) • GMSLPD is a viewer program for satellite image analysis of tropical cyclone. • JMA provides not only GMSLPD but also satellite images and NWP data for GMSLPD.

  5. Numerical Typhoon Prediction Web Site (1) JMA Typhoon EPS (TEPS) track up to the next 132 hours on “Track Prediction” page (TEPS track up to the next 84 hours before 22 April 2009) Extension of TEPS track from the next 84 to 132hr

  6. Numerical Typhoon Prediction Web Site (2) Addition of “JMA Ensemble Prediction” page Member track Ensemble mean track

  7. Numerical Typhoon Prediction Web Site (3) Addition of “Dvorak analysis” page (by this summer) SAREP shows the estimation of conventional Dvorak analysis. Dvorak analysis Identification number of cloud system Center position of cloud system Intensity of cloud system This page will show the estimation of cloud systems using the conventional Dvorak analysisand Early stage Dvorak analysis (EDA).

  8. Numerical Typhoon Prediction Web Site Other useful pages (same as before) Links to model information of the organizations participating in the Web Site Please contact the RSMC Tokyo (rsmc-tokyo@met.kishou.go.jp), if you are interested in the Web Site.

  9. RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center Website Addition of “5-Day Track Forecast” page

  10. RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon Center Website JMA website (English version) http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/indexe.html Latest RSMC tropical cyclone advisory Useful archive Best track (1951-2008) Annual Report (2000-2007) Technical Review (No.1-11) http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/jma-eng/jma-center/rsmc-hp-pub-eg/RSMC_HP.htm

  11. New RSMC products through GTS RSMC TC advisory for 5-day track forecast (operational forecast) WTPQ50-55 RSMC Guidance for forecast (NWP data) FXPQ20-25 WTPQ50 RJTD 030000 RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0901 KUJIRA (0901) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 030000UTC 13.9N 124.4E POOR MOVE NNE SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT GUST 050KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 040000UTC 14.8N 127.2E 85NM 70% MOVE ENE 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT GUST 065KT 48HF 050000UTC 16.3N 131.6E 180NM 70% MOVE ENE 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT GUST 080KT 72HF 060000UTC 18.8N 136.6E 250NM 70% MOVE ENE 13KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT GUST 085KT 96HF 070000UTC 22.7N 141.1E 280NM 70% MOVE NE 14KT 120HF 080000UTC 28.8N 147.0E 375NM 70% MOVE NE 20KT = FXPQ20 RJTD 030000 RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST NAME TS 0901 KUJIRA (0901) PSTN 030000UTC 13.9N 124.4E PRES 998HPA MXWD 35KT FORECAST BY TYPHOON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION SYSTEM TIME PSTN PRES MXWD (CHANGE FROM T=0) T=006 14.4N 124.3E -002HPA -009KT T=012 14.4N 124.6E 000HPA -006KT T=018 14.6N 125.4E -001HPA -007KT T=024 14.7N 126.3E +001HPA -008KT T=030 15.0N 127.5E -002HPA -009KT T=036 15.3N 128.5E 000HPA -010KT T=042 15.5N 129.4E -002HPA -010KT T=048 15.6N 130.4E 000HPA -010KT T=054 15.7N 131.4E -002HPA -010KT T=060 15.8N 132.5E 000HPA -010KT T=066 16.1N 133.3E -003HPA -010KT T=072 16.5N 134.2E -001HPA -009KT T=078 17.1N 135.1E -003HPA -008KT T=084 17.8N 136.0E -002HPA -008KT T=090 18.8N 137.0E -004HPA -006KT T=096 19.9N 138.0E -002HPA -005KT T=102 21.2N 139.3E -004HPA -005KT T=108 22.6N 140.8E -002HPA -004KT T=114 24.3N 142.4E -004HPA -003KT T=120 26.1N 144.3E -003HPA -002KT T=126 27.8N 146.5E -005HPA -001KT T=132 29.3N 148.6E -003HPA -002KT=

  12. JMA 5-day track forecast 4 times/day (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) 5-day track forecast It is expected to hold TS intensity or higher in the next 3 days. 3-day track & intensity forecast issued about 90 minutes after the hour issued about 50 minutes after the hour Day 5 Over 50kt-wind probability area Day 4 Over 50kt-wind area 70% probability circle Day 3 Over 30kt-wind area 70% probability circle

  13. JMA 5-day track forecast JMA mainly uses Typhoon EPS for 5-day track forecast. A probability circle is deployed in ensemble forecast approach. A circle radius is decided based on an ensemble spread. A circle center is put based on an ensemble mean position. ―ensemble mean ―GSM ―ensemble mean ―GSM

  14. Feature of JMA 5-day track forecast 1. The radius of a probability circle changes depending on the uncertainty of forecast which is shown mainly by the latest Typhoon EPS data. 2. The center of a probability circle is not so important.

  15. JMA 5-day track forecast Our verification result say that the radius of 70% probability circle enlarges in proportion to ensemble spread (forecast uncertainty). Group C Group A Group B This distance includes 70% of forecast cases (center positions) in Group C. (2007-2008) TEPS

  16. JMA 5-day track forecast The center of probability circle just means the center of forecast uncertainty area. If TEPS members separate into 2 courses clearly, ensemble mean track is low probability. Line with circles: each member track Green line with squares: ensemble mean track

  17. How to use JMA 5-day track forecast Probability circles indicate potential tracks up to the next 5 days. We should consider all potential tracks within a circle.Thetrack through circle centers is just one of potential tracks.

  18. Examples of 5-day track forecast [Circle] 6 hourly position [Circle with number] Position at 00UTC Number: Day [TC grade] TY STS TS 01 Oct. 3rd case (27/06UTC) 2nd case (26/18UTC) 1st case (26/06UTC) 24 Sep. Best track of Jangmi (0815) Forecast experiment

  19. Examples of 5-day track forecast DAY5 DAY4 DAY3 DAY2 DAY1 ANAL The circle indicates that the there is fair possibility for Jangmi to make landfall in China. 1st case

  20. Examples of 5-day track forecast DAY5 DAY4 DAY3 DAY2 DAY1 ANAL The enlarged circle indicates that forecast uncertainty increased than the previous forecast (1st case). (suggestion: potential for both recurving and moving westward) 2nd case Little change of a circle center compared to the previous forecast.

  21. Examples of 5-day track forecast 3rd case DAY5 DAY4 DAY3 DAY2 DAY1 ANAL The shrunk circle indicates that forecast uncertainty decreased than the previous forecast (2nd case). (suggestion: higher possibility of recurving and less possibility of moving westward)

  22. Summary of my presentation I hope our products and tools will contribute to the typhoon monitoring activities of your organizations. Thanks!!

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