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Preparation of Control Strategies EGU Sector

Preparation of Control Strategies EGU Sector. Clean Air Markets Division U.S. EPA Office of Air and Radiation 17 October 2007. Brief Background on IPM How are EGU strategies prepared? Base Case (CAIR/CAMR/CAVR) Where are the cost-effective additional reductions possible? Regional programs

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Preparation of Control Strategies EGU Sector

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  1. Preparation of Control StrategiesEGU Sector Clean Air Markets Division U.S. EPA Office of Air and Radiation 17 October 2007

  2. Brief Background on IPM How are EGU strategies prepared? Base Case (CAIR/CAMR/CAVR) Where are the cost-effective additional reductions possible? Regional programs Potential state policies? Geographic extent Projected NA areas Other Impacts Overview

  3. Brief Background on IPM: What is IPM? • IPM is a long-term capacity expansion and production costing model for analyzing the U.S. electric power sector • EPA uses IPM to analyze emissions policies affecting the power sector • IPM outputs are used in EPA’s air quality models • IPM was used on • CAIR • CAMR • CAVR • Clear Skies Initiative Model Regions in IPM v3.0

  4. Brief background on IPM: IPM Structure

  5. Regional Policy already in place: Base Case (CAIR/CAMR/CAVR) States controlled for fine particles (annual SO2 and NOx) States not covered by CAIR – sources are required to meet Regional Haze requirements States controlled for ozone (ozone season NOx) States controlled for both fine particles (annual SO2 and NOx) and ozone (ozone season NOx) CAIR Geographic Coverage CAIR Emission Caps* (million tons) 2009/20102015 Annual SO2 3.7 2.6 (2010) Annual NOx 1.5 1.3 (2009) Seasonal NOx .58 .48 (2009) *For the affected region.

  6. Annual NOx: State-Level Emissions

  7. 2020 Summer Season EGU NOx Emissions under CAIR/CAMR/CAVR by Fuel Type Controlled Coal: Emission rate < 0.15 lb/MMBtu or SCR or SNCR Controlled Gas: Emission rate < 0.1 lb/Mmbtu for CC, < 0.2 lb/Mmbtu for CT,< 0.15 lb/Mmbtu for O/G Steam Controlled Oil: Emission rate < 0.15 lb/MMBtu

  8. 2020 Summer Season Uncontrolled Coal EGU NOx Emissions under CAIR/CAVR/CAVR; Adding Further Controls Level of NOx from Uncontrolled Coal Units under CAIR/CAMR/CAVR) Level of NOx when SCR is added to uncontrolled coal Controlled Coal: Emission rate < 0.15 lb/MMBtu or SCR or SNCR

  9. 2020 Retrofits

  10. Legend Number of Counties < 70.5 291 >= 70.5 to 73.0 50 >= 73.0 to 75.0 36 >= 75.0 to 77.0 19 >= 77.0 to 79.0 17 >= 79.0 to 81.0 4 >= 81.0 to 83.0 6 >= 83.0 to 85.0 5 >= 85.0 to 88.0 2 2 >= 88.0 Projected 8-Hr Ozone (ppb) for 2020_070a1 Learning Strategy

  11. DRAFT: Deliberative. Do not Quote or Cite Preliminary Results. Data still in final QA review.

  12. Other Impacts • Cost of the policy • Marginal cost • Fuel prices • Generation mix • Wholesale electricity prices • Retirements *2025 numbers are highly tentative due to more uncertainty in future years.

  13. For More Information:www.epa.gov/airmarkets www.epa.gov/airmarkets/epa-ipmKevin CulliganSerpil Kayin

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