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The Future Market for Public Affairs Graduates

The Future Market for Public Affairs Graduates. Burt S. Barnow Johns Hopkins University 2006 NASPAA Annual Conference October 20, 2006 Minneapolis, Minnesota. Purpose of Presentation. Part of NASPAA Research Committee efforts to better understand labor market for our graduates

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The Future Market for Public Affairs Graduates

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  1. The Future Market for Public Affairs Graduates Burt S. Barnow Johns Hopkins University 2006 NASPAA Annual Conference October 20, 2006 Minneapolis, Minnesota

  2. Purpose of Presentation • Part of NASPAA Research Committee efforts to better understand labor market for our graduates • Last year Nadia Rubaii-Barrett and I presented data on placements and projections • This year Steve Nelson presents data on where our grads are in federal government • This presentation provides updated projections on government labor market and suggestions for additional research

  3. Key Findings from Nadaii Rubaii-Barrett’s Analysis of Accreditation Data:Sector Patterns • Local Government 24% • Private/Corporate 23% • Education* 16% • State Government 13% • Non-Profit 12% • Federal 10% • International 2% *includes those pursuing Ph.D.

  4. Key Findings from Nadaii Rubaii-Barrett’s Analysis of Accreditation Data:Areas of Specialization Health 8% General Admin/Mgt 7% Budget/Finance 6% Public Safety 5% Education 5% Law 4% Human Resources 3%

  5. BLS Projections Methods • Projections are made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics every two years • Most recent projections released in 2005 and cover 2004-2014 • Six steps in projections process: • Size and composition of the labor force • Growth of the aggregate economy • Allocating GDP by consuming sector and product • Interindustry relationships • Industry output and employment • Occupational employment

  6. Projections Methods(continued) • Labor force: • Based on population projections from Census Bureau • Include projections of net migration to US • Projections made for 130 age-sex-ethnic groups • Participation rates based on recent trends • Aggregate economic growth: • BLS relies on commercially purchased model • Macroeconomic Advisors model includes hundreds of equations modeling US economy • BLS uses its own assumptions on exogenous variables

  7. Projections Methods(continued) • Composition of final demand: • GDP disaggregated into personal consumption, gross investment, government, and foreign trade • Using bridge tables and subject to constraints imposed by macro model, GDP is allocated to about 180 sectors • Interindustry Relationships: • This step used to estimate intermediate goods and services not reflected in final demand • Input/output tables are used to develop complete listing of output by industry

  8. Projections Methods(continued) • Industry employment: • Production functions are used to estimate labor demand for each industry • Labor demand is a function of industry output, wages relative to output price, and a time trend • Industry employment projections subject to productivity and labor force assumptions • Occupational employment is computed using a matrix with 250 industries and 500 occupations • All projections reviewed for consistency and reasonableness

  9. Observations on the Federal Government Labor Market for MPA and MPP Graduates • The federal government is stagnant in terms of total employment • Management and professional employment is growing faster, 5.2% and 6.7%, but still much slower than the 13% for the entire workforce • Over the 10 years covered by the projections, 73,000 M&P federal jobs will be added, but many are unsuited for our grads • 10,000 computer specialists • 9,400 architects and engineers • 11,113 health care practitioners and technicians • 4,100 in legal occupations

  10. Observations on the State Government Labor Market for MPA and MPP Graduates • The state government labor market is nearly twice as large as the federal government market • The overall growth of 11% is less than the 13% for the overall economy, but much faster than growth for the federal government • Management jobs are projected to grow by 13.8% while professional jobs are projected to grow by 17.5% • Professional jobs constitute 43% of state government jobs, compared to 24% at the federal level • About 466,000 management and professional jobs will be added to state government between 2004 and 2014

  11. Observations on the Local Government Labor Market for MPA and MPP Graduates • The local government work force is about 2.8 times as large as state government and 5 times as big as the federal workforce • The growth rate for local government employment is almost as rapid as for the entire economy: 11.4% compared to 13.0% • Growth rates for management and professional workers are close to the average: 12% for managers and 13.5% for professional workers

  12. The Private Sector Is Bigger and Growing Faster than Government • The total workforce is 144 million with about 22 million employed in government • The growth rate for the overall labor market is 13%, which is higher than for any level of government • The number of management workers is projected to increase by 14% and the number of professional workers is projected to increase by 21%

  13. MPP/MPA Graduates Do Not Fit Well in Fastest Growing MA/MS Occupations

  14. MPP/MPA Graduates Fit Better in Slowest Growing MA/MS Occupations

  15. Caveats • Much of government work is not relevant for our graduates—need to look at specific segments and occupations • BLS makes projections excluding education and health for state and local sectors—much smaller size • Projections are not always accurate

  16. Future Work • Link projections data to specific occupation data for federal government to obtain more appropriate projections • Track projections for appropriate private sector industries, such as consulting and health care • Consider conducting placement survey with more detail beyond schools seeking accreditation

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