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New Trend in the U.S. Mortality: Gompertzialization of Mortality Trajectory

This study explores the phenomenon of mortality deceleration at advanced ages and the lack of mortality improvement for centenarians. The findings suggest a potential acceleration of mortality increase with age, leading to lower future numbers of centenarians than expected.

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New Trend in the U.S. Mortality: Gompertzialization of Mortality Trajectory

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  1. New Trend in the U.S. Mortality:Gompertzialization of Mortality Trajectory Dr. Natalia S. Gavrilova, Ph.D. Dr. Leonid A. Gavrilov, Ph.D. Center on Aging NORC at The University of Chicago Chicago, Illinois, USA

  2. Three scenarios for mortality at advanced ages Source:Gavrilov L.A., Gavrilova N.S. The Biology of Life Span: A Quantitative Approach, NY: Harwood Academic Publisher, 1991

  3. Earlier studies suggested that the exponential growth of mortality with age (Gompertz law) is followed by a period of deceleration, with slower rates of mortality increase.

  4. Mortality deceleration at advanced ages • After age 95, the observed risk of death [red line] deviates from the values predicted by the Gompertz law [black line]. • Mortality of Swedish women for the period of 1990-2000 from the Kannisto-Thatcher Database on Old Age Mortality • Source: Gavrilov, Gavrilova, “Why we fall apart. Engineering’s reliability theory explains human aging”. IEEE Spectrum. 2004.

  5. Study of the Social Security Administration Death Master File • North American Actuarial Journal, 2011, 15(3):432-447

  6. More recent birth cohort mortality Nelson-Aalen monthly estimates of hazard rates using Stata 11

  7. The second studied dataset:U.S. cohort death rates taken from the Human Mortality Database

  8. Nature (2016) Based on data from the International Database on Longevity (IDL) Note: After 2000 number of supercentenarians exposed to death in IDL rapidly declines

  9. Two Current Trends

  10. Trend #1 Improvement of age reporting

  11. Is Mortality Deceleration Caused by Age Misreporting? It was demonstrated that age misstatement biases mortality estimates downwards at the oldest ages, which contributes to mortality deceleration (Preston et al., 1999). If this hypothesis is correct then mortality deceleration should be more prevalent among historically older birth cohorts

  12. Historical Evolution of Mortality Trajectories1880-1899 U.S. birth cohorts. MenBIC values for fitting Gompertz and Kannisto models Fitting age-specific cohort death rates taken from the Human Mortality Database

  13. 1880-1899 U.S. birth cohorts. WomenBIC values for fitting Gompertz and Kannisto models Fitting age-specific cohort death rates taken from the Human Mortality Database

  14. Conclusion Mortality deceleration is more prevalent in historically older birth cohorts when age reporting was less accurate

  15. Trend #2 No mortality improvement for centenarians Found for Swedish and UK centenarians

  16. Mortality of Male Centenarians Does Not Decline Over Time 100 90 80 70 60 Mortality of U.S. Men at 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 years Based on data from the Human Mortality Database

  17. Mortality of Female Centenarians Does Not Decline Over Time 100 90 80 70 60 Mortality of U.S. Women at 60, 70, 80, 90 and 100 years Based on data from the Human Mortality Database

  18. Conclusions • Gompertzialization of old-age mortality trajectories over time. • Mortality stagnation over time for centenarians. • These two trends may lead to accelerating pattern of mortality increase with age • As a result, the number of centenarians in the future may be significantly lower than expected

  19. Acknowledgments This study was made possible thanks to: generous support from the National Institute on Aging (R01AG028620) Stimulating working environment at the Center on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago

  20. For More Information and Updates Please Visit Our Scientific and Educational Website on Human Longevity: http://longevity-science.org And Please Post Your Comments at our Scientific Discussion Blog: • http://longevity-science.blogspot.com/

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