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Space Weather: Why it matters and what we can do about it 16 May 2011

C/NOFS. DMSP. Space Weather: Why it matters and what we can do about it 16 May 2011. CRESS. William J. Burke Air Force Research Laboratory Space Vehicles Directorate Boston College Institute for Scientific Research. U.S. Space Program: Strategic Perspective. MSX.

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Space Weather: Why it matters and what we can do about it 16 May 2011

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  1. C/NOFS DMSP Space Weather: Why it matters and what we can do about it16 May 2011 CRESS William J. Burke Air Force Research Laboratory Space Vehicles Directorate Boston College Institute for Scientific Research

  2. U.S. Space Program: Strategic Perspective MSX AdministrationPolicy or Treaty • Eisenhower 1955 - Open Skies Proposal • Kennedy 1963 - Nuclear Weapons Test Ban Treaty • Johnson 1967 - Principles Governing the Exploration and Use of Outer Space • Nixon 1972 - International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects • Carter 1979 - Prohibition of Military or Other Hostile Use of Environment Modification Techniques

  3. Space Weather Overview • Comparison with severe terrestrial weather • Solar sources of space climatology and weather: • Extreme ultraviolet radiation maintenance of the ionosphere and thermosphere • Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field coupling to Earth’s magnetic field • Energy storage and transport in the magnetosphere depletions that map to image depletions/enhancements on the bottomside. • Magnetic storms: a big electric circuit in the sky • Some space weather impacts from an Air Force perspective • Lost in space  Satellite and debris tracking • Communications and navigation  ionospheric irregularities • Radiation damage to spacecraft components  taking control Google Near-Earth space is the very hostile environment in which we mustconduct very expensive operations for both national security and advancing scientific understanding about our star and the cosmos.

  4. Comparative Meteorologies • New England Weather • Hurricane of ‘38 • Blizzard of ‘78 • Comparative Sizes • Thermonuclear device ~ 1015 Joules = 1 MT • Solar luminosity 4 x 1026 Joules/s = 400 Billion MT/s • Solar flux on Earth ~1017 Joules/s = 100 MT/s • Stormtime power into > 1012 Joules/s = 1 MT/hrupper atmosphere Solar/space disturbances are just too big to ignore.

  5. The Visible and Invisible Sun Simultaneous views contrasting quiescent photosphere at visible wavelengths with turbulent X-ray emissions of the corona.

  6. Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) observed by LASCO white light coronagraph on SOHO

  7. SPACE WEATHER EFFECTS: Solar Wind- Magnetosphere Interactions • Solar wind: • Speeds: 300 – 1,000 km/s • Densities: 2 – 100 cm-3 • IMF: 2 - 80 nT • Imposed stormtime potentials on • magnetosphere up to 250 kV • Imposed field-aligned currents to ionosphere up to several 10s of MA • Power: several tera (1012) Watts 7

  8. Satellite Drag Environment Air Force Space Command tracks about 12,800 objects. About 10% are active payloads. Others are inactive payloads, rocket bodies and associated debris. Over 4000 objects are at altitudes below 700 km where aerodynamic drag is significant.

  9. Two Major Space Weather Effects CHAMP Degradation/loss of signals Satellite/debris drag Problems Predicted Position Actual Position Responses C/NOFS

  10. Magnetic Storm Effects Creation of a new radiation belt by a shock wave during the March 1991 magnetic storm

  11. Never has so much depended on something so small! 1/4  Chip in the eye of a needle Current US policy calls for use of commercial off-the-shelf micro-electronics on all future spacecraft. Tradeoff: Cost versus reliability/survivability

  12. Space Situation Awareness Compact Environmental Anomaly Sensor (CEASE)

  13. Mitigation of Space Hazards • Use available monitors to predict magnetic storms • Automate situation awareness for satellites • Radiation environment monitors - CEASE • Spacecraft discharging • Control radiation belt fluxes • Number of energetic particles not large • Give nature a helping hand: ELF/VLF antennas in space

  14. High Altitude Nuclear Detonation(HAND)Impacts Multiple Systems • High-altitude nuclear tests of 1958 and 1962 demonstrated wide-area affects. Significant military system impacts • Radars: Blackout, absorption, noise, clutter, scintillation • Communications: Blackout, scintillation fading, noise, connectivity • Optical Sensors: IR, Visible, UV backgrounds, clutter; radio noise • Satellites: Trapped radiation; radiation damage to electronics • Electronics & Power: Electromagnetic pulse; electrical systems damage ORANGE 3.8 MT at 43 km TEAK 3.8 MT at 76.8 km KINGFISH __ MT at __ km CHECKMATE __ MT at __ km STARFISH 1.4 MT at 400 km

  15. High Altitude Nuclear DetonationWhat is the problem? 40 Blue satellite attrition curves Source: AFRL/VSES 35 30 30 KT, 500 km 25 Blue LEO Satellites Alive Includes national, military and commercial 500 KT 125 km 20 10 KT, 300 km 20 KT 150 km 15 10 Nuclear vs Natural Environment (~800km Polar Orbit) 1E+6 5 1E+5 1E+4 0 Dose (Rads Si) 1E+3 90 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1E+2 Nuclear 1E+1 Days into Campaign Natural 1E+0 1 14 30 365 Days HAND Belt 50 kT, 31.3 deg, 75.2 deg, 200km High Altitude Nuclear Detonation produces huge increase in radiation for satellites – all LEO spacecraft fail within months – Devastating to our military intelligence, national security and world economy!

  16. Physics of Pitch-Angle Scattering ELF/VLF Waves Control Particle Lifetimes L shell = distance/RE

  17. Radiation Belt Remediation (RBR) Ionosphere VLF wave generation Wave-particle interaction Wave propagation HAND belt electrons Outer-zone electrons Mission: Understand the physical methods of remediating an enhanced radiation belt as a result of a HAND using VLF Payoff: LEO space asset lifetimes are extended and the reverts the radiation environment to acceptable levels for spacecraft replenishment following attack Key scientific questions: Wave-particle scattering: Are interactions diffusive or coherent? Can tailored wave forms improve efficiency? Global wave propagation and amplification: Where does wave power go in the far field? Can waves be amplified through plasma processes? ELF-VLF wave injection efficiency: Can ground-based antennas radiate VLF efficiently through the ionosphere? Can space-based antennas radiate VLF into the far-field at high power levels?

  18. Cygnus (DSX)Functional Baseline • Radiation-Belt Remediation • 50-m Boom & Truss used for VLF transmit & receive antenna • Actively counter effects of Solar Storms or HAND 6000-km x 12000-km MEO orbit • Space Weather Sensor Array • Data for models in critical orbit • Validate Radiation-Belt Remediation • Correlate Structures and PV radiation effects 25-m • Thin Film Photovoltaics • 10X more Available Power • Enables 50 – 100kW range • High radiation tolerance and thermal annealing • Transformational Deployed Structures • 25-m Boom • 25-m Truss • Roll-out Solar Array structure 16-m • System ID & Adaptive Control • 60X decrease in structural dynamics • ACS autonomously corrects for structure changes due • to radiation, failure, etc • Enabling technology for future lightweight structures 25-m 5-m Goal: Remove Power, Aperture, and MEO as constraints to DoD Space Capability

  19. 3.375 kHz 3.125 kHz RBR Phase 1 Results:VLF from HAARP HAARP ionospheric heating facility CLUSTER observations of HAARP VLF signals – 26 Jan 03 One experiment complete before HAARP down for antenna-build 6-hop 10-hop 8-hop 4-hop 2-hop “First light” from conjugate point VLF buoy Initial 2-hop >10 dB amplification – steady amplitude for next several hops! HAARP experiments are crucial to understand VLF injection/amplification in the magnetosphere– a key enabler for an operational mitigation system

  20. Some Conclusions • U.S. enjoys vast superiority in space operations. • Sensors and electronics on space-based platforms are vulnerable to solar-induced hazards. • Our experience in space is still quite limited. • Can satellites survive the solar storm of the century? • Warnings reduce RISK. • Space weather forecasting is a necessity. • Engineers must know why anomalies occur. • Radiation control gives nature a helping hand.

  21. Backup Pictures Radar Clutter Map DMSP Models SATCOM Outage Map AF Geospace

  22. Backup Pictures

  23. Hazards to Space Systems • Ionospheric Hazards • Comm/Nav link degradation and outage • Surveillance clutter • Satellite Drag • Direct Solar Hazards • Radio, optical and X-ray interference • Solar energetic particle degradation and clutter • Space Particle Hazards • Radiation degradation and electronics upsets • Surface and internal charging / discharging • Adversary-Induced Hazards • High energy particles • RF Waves

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