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TS&PA Meeting June 16, 2004

TS&PA Meeting June 16, 2004. UNICE views on Policy Option Scenario Design. Key elements for Scenario Design. All key pollutants/effects must be examined simultaneously: IAM optimisation potential to be exploited fully

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TS&PA Meeting June 16, 2004

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  1. TS&PA MeetingJune 16, 2004 UNICE views on Policy Option Scenario Design

  2. Key elements for Scenario Design • All key pollutants/effects must be examined simultaneously: • IAM optimisation potential to be exploited fully • Cost vs. reduced impact relationship of scenarios suite must be provided for the EU and for each MS • Scenario design should be based on most cost-effective solution for a given environmental aim: • Equal cost per unit improvement in meeting health/environmental target • Not equal cost per unit emission reduction (except in specific cases such as emission controls for vehicles emissions)

  3. Scenario key outputs • For each Member State: • Cost • Suitable indicator of resulting state (environment/health) • Individual measures picked by RAINS to enble comparison with Commission ‘Draft Measures Paper’

  4. Scenario categories • Series of stepwise gap closure scenarios towards ‘non-significant effect’ ultimate goal: • Scenarios to be run for 2010, 2015, 2020 • Cost curves vs. gap closure over time for each MS • Sensitivity scenarios to explore upper and lower boundaries of uncertainties, in particular: • Dose-response curve slopes • Potential thresholds of effects • Key modelling uncertainties

  5. Other important points • Achievability and feasibility should also be fundamental considerations • Transparency calls for availability of detailed results of scenario analysis to Stakeholders

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