1 / 19

Luis Cuevas, Mohammed Yassin Madeleine Thomson Tony Hart

Luis Cuevas, Mohammed Yassin Madeleine Thomson Tony Hart. Environmental and epidemiological determinants of epidemic meningitis at the local level : Ethiopia. Meningitis in Ethiopia. Within the meningitis belt Epidemics affect mostly the Northwest Spread to the South Incidence. Aims.

jorn
Télécharger la présentation

Luis Cuevas, Mohammed Yassin Madeleine Thomson Tony Hart

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Luis Cuevas, Mohammed Yassin Madeleine Thomson Tony Hart Environmental and epidemiological determinants of epidemic meningitis at the local level : Ethiopia

  2. Meningitis in Ethiopia • Within the meningitis belt • Epidemics affect mostly the Northwest • Spread to the South • Incidence

  3. Aims Southern Region • To develop forecasting methods to predict meningococcal epidemics at the local level and • Expand our understanding of the dynamics of epidemics.

  4. Southern region • Epidemics 1999-2004

  5. Incidence • Varied by Woreda and year • Up to 650 /100,000 pop

  6. Environmental information

  7. Profile classes for precipitation and absolute humidity • Precipitation • Absolute Humidity

  8. Logistic regressions • Eleven environmental variables • Only land-cover independently associated with epidemics

  9. Acute respiratory infections

  10. Acute respiratory infections and the environment • Elevation • Population • Temperature • A. humidity Poor correlation with meningitis epidemics

  11. Malaria

  12. Malaria and the environment • Altitude • NDVI • temperature But poor correlation with meningitis

  13. Duration of meningitis epidemics and vaccination(Alert + epidemic thresholds, 1999-2004) • Sixty epidemics 45% ≤ 6 weeks

  14. Cumulative number of cases (%) occurring by week of the epidemic

  15. CARRIAGE • 9 Woredas

  16. Districts selected • 3 - low incidence in 2002 < 50th quartile) • 3 - high incidence • 3 - epidemic levels (top 75th quartile) • Cross sectional surveys • Before dry season • During dry season • 1800 participants

  17. carriage

  18. Usual risk factors • Age • Smoking • Attending religious gatherings • Markets But poor correlation with meningitis epidemics

  19. Conclussion • Poor association with ARI, malaria and carriage • Association with environmental factors less clear cut than large scale models • Vaccination prevented cases • Epidemics are rapid events, often presented as summation of smaller events • Effect of vaccination in neighbouring areas by distance should be better defined

More Related