National Aviation Policy Review - Input to Scoping Report

1. SASIG & Department for Transport (DfT) Engagement Event 19 January 2011 National Aviation Policy Review -Input to Scoping Report

2. UK Aviation Policy – Past Present & Future • similarities and differences as UK aviation policy has developed • driving forces at each stage • factors for consideration in today’s discussions

3. Aviation legislation (1/3) Dec. 1945 Command Paper on British Air Services July 1948 report by Select Committee on Estimates July 1963 Committee on the Problem of Noise, Final Report (Cmnd 2056) 1966 Airport Authority Act Feb. 1978 Airports Policy White Paper (Labour) Dec. 1979 Report of the Advisory Committee on Airports Policy

4. Aviation legislation (2/3) June 1985 Airports Policy White Paper (Conservative) 1986 Airports Act 1990 RUCATSE Study – Runway Capacity to serve the South-East; reported in July 1993 Feb. 1995 Government response to RUCATSE May 1996 Transport Select Committee report ‘UK Airport Capacity’ July 1998 Transport White Paper

5. Aviation legislation (3/3) Dec. 2003 White Paper - The Future of Air Transport (ATWP) 2006 Civil Aviation Act [Oct. 2006 - Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change] [Dec. 2006 Eddington Transport Study] Dec. 2006 - ATWP Progress Report [2008 Climate Change Act] Dec. 2009 - Committee on Climate Change Aviation Report

6. Airports Act 1986 (Ch. 31) An Act to provide for the dissolution of the British Airports Authority and the vesting of its property, rights and liabilities in a company nominated by the Secretary of State; to provide for the reorganisation of other airport undertakings in the public sector; to provide for the regulation of the use of airports and for the imposition of economic controls at certain airports;……

7. Airports Act 1986 (Ch. 31) …..to make other amendments of the law relating to airports; to make provision with respect to the control of capital expenditure by local authority airport undertakings; and for connected purposes. [8th July 1986]

8. Air Transport White Paper 2003 “The Government recognises the benefits that the expansion in air travel has brought to people's lives and to the economy of this country. Its increased affordability has opened up the possibilities of foreign travel for many people, and it provides the rapid access that is vital to many modern businesses. But…..

9. Air Transport White Paper 2003 ….we have to balance those benefits against the environmental impacts of air travel, in particular the growing contribution of aircraft emissions to climate change and the significant impact that airports can have on those living nearby.”

10. DRIVING FORCES Passenger growth – currently around 6% per annum – is not slowing down to 3% or 4% as was forecast iIf not constrained by airport capacity, air travel demand at UK airports is forecast to grow strongly under the central case, from 241 million passengers per annum (mppa) in 2007 to 465mppa in 2030 (within the range 415-500mppa). UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 Forecasts, DfT, Jan. 2009 WHEN GROWTH PICKS UP AGAIN the estimate of 500 mppa will be reached in 2021 not 2030 There could be 780 mppa by 2030

11. Civil Aviation Authority UK Airport Statistics (www.caa.co.uk)

12. THE BIG ISSUES • Aviation growth is booming ahead – good or bad? • The economic benefits are substantial but so is the environmental impact • Passengers are enjoying more/cheaper flights • High growth means more global warming • Communities around airports will experience higher levels of air and noise pollution • More pressure on our congested road and rail network

13. Central questions: Whether or not new airport capacity should be provided? If yes….. • how much? • where? • what mitigation measures will be taken?

14. Environment "The main environmental effects of aviation are those of aircraft noise and aircraft emissions. The former largely affect areas at and around airports, the latter can have both local effects on air quality and global effects on climate. These problems are becoming more serious as aviation continues to grow at rates that outstrip the ability of technological and operational improvements in environmental performance to keep pace." European Commission – air transport webpages http://ec.europa.eu/transport/air/environment/environment_en.htm

15. Inclusion of non-CO2 effects UK Government aviation target – CO2 emissions from UK aviation in 2050 should be at or below 2005 levels – excludes non-CO2 effects of aviation Considerable scientific uncertainty However, it is important to account for non-CO2 effects of aviation in future international policy framework & UK emissions reductions Committee on Climate Change Aviation Report, Dec. 2009 (Exec. Sum. pg.9)

16. CCC Aviation Report – the future UK Government aviation target – CO2 emissions from UK aviation in 2050 should be at or below 2005 levels could be met in concert with 55% increase in air transport movements (from 2005 level) if achieve annual carbon intensity reduction of around 0.9% (from biofuels and fleet fuel efficiency) 60% increase in passenger numbers (from 2005 level) assuming load factors increase

17. Capacity expansion options 55% increase in ATMs (from 2005 level) is around 3.4 million, 2005 level was 2.2 million Total current theoretical capacity at UK airports is 5.6 million ATMs However available capacity is not the only consideration – geographical spread, accessibility, choice, services, integration, etc.

18. UK Passenger Forecasts to 2030

19. Policy options The broad options are: • UNCONSTRAINED GROWTH • LIMITED GROWTH • SELECTIVELY LOCATED GROWTH • ENVIRONMENTALLY CONTROLLED GROWTH

20. Future policy negotiations Need these to be at all levels - domestic, regional (EU), and international – and need to cover: • aviation’s non-CO2 climate change emissions – NOx, cirrus, contrails • developed and developing countries