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Energy, Climate Change, and Energy Security - Some Comments

Energy, Climate Change, and Energy Security - Some Comments. Terry Surles - Hawaii Natural Energy Institute Hawaii Association of Environmental Professionals June 25, 2009. Public/Private Partnerships Critical For Addressing Overarching Issues Facing Energy Infrastructures.

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Energy, Climate Change, and Energy Security - Some Comments

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  1. Energy, Climate Change, and Energy Security - Some Comments Terry Surles - Hawaii Natural Energy Institute Hawaii Association of Environmental Professionals June 25, 2009

  2. Public/Private Partnerships Critical For Addressing Overarching Issues Facing Energy Infrastructures Electricity System Issues Environment Quality: Life cycle analyses Grid Modernization: Renewable and DG Peak Demand Grid Stability Global Climate Change Energy Security: Oil from “grumpy” nations, Critical Infrastructure Protection Environment Quality None Of These Issues Can Be Resolved Without Partnerships

  3. World Electricity Consumption Natural Gas 25% Nuclear12% Natural Gas 18% Coal 37% Nuclear 16% Renewables19% Renewables 20% Oil 7% Coal 38% Oil 8% 61% Growth 2001 161 Quads 2025 259 Quads Worldwide electricity consumption is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.3% between 2001 - 2025 Source: IEO2004, Table 16

  4. Global Oil Consumption Growth ~ 1%/year Source: BP World Energy Review, 2007

  5. Proven Oil Reserves (2006) BP World Energy Review, 2007

  6. Hawaii Is Heavily Dependent on Petroleum for Energy Use

  7. Hawaii’s Dependence on Foreign Oil Is Headed in the Wrong Direction

  8. Climate Change: It’s Getting Worse “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.”– Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • Annual fossil CO2 emissions increased from an average of 6.4 GtC per year in the 1990s, to 7.2 GtC per year in 2000-2005 • CO2 radiative forcing increased by 20% from 1995 to 2005, the largest in any decade in at least the last 200 years (since the start of the Industrial Era)

  9. Various Modeling Results for Historical Temperatures: The Infamous Inhofe/Barton/Crichton “Hockey Stick”

  10. Warmest 12 years: 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,2000 50 0.1280.026 100 0.0740.018 Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time Period Rate Years /decade

  11. Human and Natural Drivers of Climate Change CO2, CH4 and N2O Concentrations - far exceed pre-industrial values - increased markedly since 1750 due to human activities Relatively little variation before the industrial era (Note that water vapor is a GHG)

  12. Greenhouse Gases* *For complete listing see Table TS.2, IPCC Working Group I, Technical Summary, Fourth Assessment Report.

  13. Marked increase after 1994 North Atlantic hurricanes have increased with SSTs N. Atlantic hurricane record best after 1944 with aircraft surveillance. Global number and percentage of intense hurricanes is increasing (1944-2005) SST

  14. Projections of Future Changes in Climate Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is 1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C), and for high scenario (A1FI) is 4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C). consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable

  15. A Paleoclimatic Perspective Paleoclimate information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1300 years. The last time the polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6 metres of sea level rise.

  16. Emissions Projections

  17. Problem Confluence: Global Security and Climate • Significant climate change and sea level rise will lead to major population dislocations • Foster additional radical groups against existing nations and economies: southern Asia • Climate change can produce “winners” as well as “losers” • Northern countries may benefit: Canada, Russia • Temperate countries may suffer due to loss of cropland and increase of tropical diseases and exotic pests • Winners and losers will also be driven by water - increased storms nd more persistent droughts • Will most certainly exacerbate international tensions • Particular issues concerning water availability: China, Middle East

  18. Problem Confluence: Climate Change and Energy Security • Availability and upward price pressure on oil prices - disruption of supply in Africa and the Gulf Coast • Natural Gas - related price pressures as well as increased reliance on foreign imports of LNG • Coal - could increase in use due to domestic supplies and lower prices - exacerbating climate issues • Nuclear - pressure to increase deployment, with concerns over proliferation risks • Bio-fuels - increased food/fuel competition, coupled with uncertainties related to future agricultural productivity

  19. Is There a Limit to Where and How We Get Oil in the Future: Per Capita Production

  20. Carbon Management and Energy Security: No Silver Bullet Carbon Management Decarbonization CO2 Btu Sequestration Efficiency CO2 atm CO2 emitted < < < Btu GDP • Regional Partnerships • Capture/storage • End-use Technologies • Demand response • Nuclear • Renewables

  21. Energy Efficiency – The Most Cost Effective Approach Lighting Transportation Appliances

  22. Focus Needs to be on Buildings Buildings use 71% of electricity Wash 5% Cooking 5% Computers 1% Electronics 5% Other 4% Industry 33% Buildings 39% Refrigeration 9% 21% Heating 32% Cooling 10% Transportation 28% Lights 12% Water Heat 13% 18% Other 10% Cooking 2% Computers 3% Lights 28% Residential Refrigeration 4% Ventilation 7% Office Equip 7% Commercial Heating 16%% Water Heat 7% Cooling 13% Source: 2004 Buildings Energy Databook with SEDS distributed to all end-uses

  23. Colored Cool Roof Project • Concrete tile • Composition Available now: • Standing seam • Clay tile In development:

  24. Electricity Generating Capacity for 150 Million Refrigerators + Freezers in the US 60 50 40 30 GW capacity saved capacity needed 20 10 0 at 1974 efficiency at 2001 efficiency

  25. Renewable Electricity Overview U.S. Electric Power Industry Net Generation, 2005 Solar 1% Wind 19% Geothermal 15% Biomass 65% Total = 4,055 Billion KWh Electric Utility Plants = 63% Independent Power Producers & Combined Heat and Power Plants = 37.0%

  26. HI CA NV AZ & NM WA CO & MT TX MN IA & WI MD PA DC & DE NJ NY CT & RI MA ME What is Possible for Renewable Electricity Renewable Energy Expected From State Standards Total Estimated Solar Capacity Driven by State RPS Set-Asides (assuming full compliance with mandates) 2010: 400 MW to 500 MW 2015: 1,200 MW to 1,400 MW 2020: 2,800 MW to 3,200 MW 2030: 3,700 MW to 4,300 MW Western Governor’s Association 2015 Goal Clean Energy – 30,000 MW • Solar – 8,000 MW • Wind – 5,000 to 9,000 MW • Geothermal – 5,600 MW • Energy Efficiency – 40,000 MW

  27. Life Cycle Emissions: Well-to-Wheels Analysis – Biofuel System

  28. Biomass/Biofuels Status Biopower • Grid-connected capacity • 9700 MW direct combustion • 400 MW co-firing • Biopower electricity prices generally range from 8-12¢/kWh Biofuels • Biodiesel – 30 million gallons (2004) • Corn ethanol • 81 commercial plants • 3.4 billion gallons (2004) • ~$1.22/gal • Cellulosic ethanol* • $2.49/gal * Not commercially available Rated at 21 MW and providing the San Francisco Bay Area with baseload capacity, the Tracy Biomass Plant uses wood residues discarded from agricultural and industrial operations. • World biomass electricity capacity (2004): 36 GW • World biofuels production capacity (2004): ethanol 32 billion l/yr; biodiesel 2.2 billion l/yr • Source: Worldwatch Institute

  29. Brazil—the Saudi Arabia of biofuels—is currently the only country that truly has a large, viable industry… Although the US ethanol market is also sizable. $/bbl

  30. Development of Sustainable, Integrated Bioenergy Systems for Hawaii • Develop sustainable crop production systems • DOE and Industry initiatives with CTAHR • Validate conversion technology compatibility with oil and fiber crop fractions • DOE, ClearFuels, and other Industry initiatives • Demonstration and scale-up of integrated systems • Industry lead with University support • Enact policy to encourage development of bioenergy industry: Biofuels Master Plan (ACT 253) - HNEI-led • Primary objective of the plan is to develop a Hawaii renewable biofuels program to manage the State’s transition to energy self-sufficiency based in part on biofuels for power generation and transportation.

  31. Massive Development of Biomass Technology is Not Without Issues • Water Use • Irrigation requires energy • Water rights will be at issue • Fertilizer • Many are produced with natural gas feedstocks • Run-off cases considerable pollution, ocean dead zones • Competition for Food • Land Availability • use of marginal lands can make erosion problems worse • Contribution to Global Warming • Destruction of tropical forests • Conversion Technologies • Problems with developing cost-effective cellulosic conversion systems

  32. Hawaii National Marine Renewable Energy Test Center UH awarded one of two ocean energy test centers announced by USDOE fall 2008 Industry driven, requiring 50% cost share Also leverages DOD funding Objectives: Wave: Facilitate development & implementation of commercial wave energy systems – with one or more of these systems to supply energy to grid at >50% availability within 5 years Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion: Conduct long-term testing and help move OTEC to pre-commercialization Testing of OTEC components partially funded by Office of Naval Research via grant to HNEI

  33. Ocean Energy Center Test Sites 33

  34. Actual Projected Rest of World Rest of World North America North America Europe Europe As Available Renewable Resources:Wind Energy Capacity Growth Worldwide • Jan 2007 Cumulative MW = 71,476 • Rest of World = 11,043 • North America = 13,054 • U.S. – 11,603MW • Canada – 1,451MW • Europe = 47,379 MW Installed Sources: BTM Consult Aps, March 2005 Windpower Monthly, January 2007 *NREL Estimate for 2007

  35. Boeing 747-200 GE WindEnergy 3.6 MW Turbine Arklow Banks Windfarm The Irish Sea Photo: R. Thresher

  36. As-Available Wind and Solar Energy Systems on the Grid: Problems for Power Quality and Reliability, Necessities in a Digital Society From Imre Gyuk, DOE, 2007

  37. Electricity Storage for High Penetrations of As Available Renewable Resources From Imre Gyuk, DOE, 2007

  38. Aspects of the “Smart Grid” - Linking IT to Electricity: Communications, Control, and Information Systems • Take advantage of technologies developed for exogenous applications • Resolves issues arising from greater penetration of distributed energy resources and technologies on grid • Critical component for more effective and efficient load management, demand response, demand-side management • Major concern is the effective linking of electrical and mechanical engineering skills with information technology profession

  39. HNEI’s “Maui Smart Grid Project” Is Designed to Meet Federal, State, and Utility Needs • Objective is to demonstrate a distributed system that aggregates DG, energy storage, and demand response technologies to achieve transmission, distribution and end-use benefits • Focus is on “reduction of peak demand by at least 15%” using a diverse mix of DG, storage, renewable energy, demand response • Effort to provide solutions for mitigating the effects of as-available renewable energy • Team consists of HNEI, General Electric, Hawaiian Electric Co, Maui Electric Co, Sentech, First Wind • Funded at $14M in FY08 and 09 • Just under $7M from DOE • Real “iron in the ground” and utility cooperation and enthusiasm for achieving primary goals for DOE/OE, the utility, and the state

  40. IGCC - FC Hybrid, Biomass, Solar, Nuclear, Direct Carbon FC Bulk Generation Bulk Generation Transmission Transmission Transmission & Distribution Substation Substation Residential Residential Distribution Substation Gensets Gensets , Solar, FC, LM , Solar, FC, LM Transmission & Distribution Commercial Commercial Distribution Substation Industrial Industrial Gensets Gensets , Solar, Fuel Cells (FC), , Solar, Fuel Cells (FC), Load Management (LM) Load Management (LM) Gensets Gensets , FC, LM , FC, LM Wind Distributed Integrated Systems (Storage, Generation, and Intelligence) will be essential for the Grid of the Future

  41. Nuclear Should Remain an OptionBUT • Cost • Waste disposal • Health and safety • Proliferation

  42. Nuclear Power Consumption Growth ~ 4%/year Source: BP World Energy Review, 2007

  43. U.S. electricity production costs 1995-2005 (averages in 2005 cents per kilowatt-hour)

  44. World Coal Consumption Growth ~ 2%/yr

  45. Planned New Coal Plant EmissionsEqual All Historic Coal CO2 27% of remaining budget for 450 ppm Source: ORNL, CDIAC; IEA, WEO 2004

  46. Carbon Sequestration: Continued Use of Domestic Resources (new HNEI effort) • Two major challenges for economically viable, environmentally acceptable CCS • Lower cost capture – currently up to 35% cost penalty on PVC systems • Reducing uncertainty of storage permanence, safety, etc. • Need to resolve both to gain acceptance to keep coal as option and hedge bets on Integrated Gasification/Combined Cycle (IGCC) coal-fired power plants

  47. Sleipner Project, North Sea • 1996 to present • 1 Mt CO2 injection/yr • Seismic monitoring Picture compliments of Statoil and LBNL

  48. Reduce CO2 Emissions from Transportation • Improve fuel efficiency of cars and trucks • Switch to plug-in hybrid or electric cars • Only provides a benefit if emissions from electricity are reduced • Switch to low-C fuels • E.g. H2 • Biofuels with low life-cycle emissions • On-board capture of emissions from large mobile sources? • Nuclear powered ships and aircraft?

  49. Looking Forward: Integration of Transportation and Electricity • Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles: Integration of transportation and electricity sectors can provide solutions

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