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You may not be interested in climate change, but climate change is interested in you.

Climate Revelations 12 Simple & Important Things to Know About Climate Change Dan Miller Managing Director The Roda Group ClimatePlace.org. You may not be interested in climate change, but climate change is interested in you. Revelation #1. Tom Friedman. Climate change is your issue.

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You may not be interested in climate change, but climate change is interested in you.

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  1. ClimateRevelations12 Simple & Important Things to Know AboutClimate ChangeDan MillerManaging DirectorThe Roda GroupClimatePlace.org

  2. You may not be interested in climate change,but climate change is interested in you. Revelation #1 Tom Friedman Climate change is your issue

  3. Climate change is not a new idea Revelation #2

  4. “On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground” By Prof. Svante Arrhenius April 1896

  5. 1958 (55 Years Ago)...

  6. Climate change is not a scientific controversy Revelation #3

  7. 97% of climate scientists and every major scientific academy agree that global warming is real, is mostly cause by humans, and requires urgent action

  8. Extremely Hot Summers Now Occur 50 Times More Often Extremely Hot Summers

  9. Carbon pollution is not like other kinds of pollution Revelation #4

  10. Everything You Need toKnow About CO2 Emissions • The peak warming is proportional to the cumulative carbon emitted • It doesn’t matter much how rapidly the carbon is emitted • The warming you get when you stop emitting carbon is what you are stuck with for the next thousand years • The climate recovers only slightly over the next ten thousand years • A trillion tons cumulative carbon gives you about +2ºC global mean warming above the pre-industrial temperature.

  11. A Trillion Tons • We have emitted about 500 GtC so far • About 500 GtC to go to have a chance to stay below +2°C... • BUT permafrost melt may itself add ~250 GtC by end of the century

  12. Continuing “business as usual”emissions is not OK Revelation #5

  13. Extreme Drought Drought Index: -3 to -6 = Dust Bowl Source: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

  14. Sea Level Rise

  15. 2009 MIT Study: 95% chance that “Business-as-usual” temperature increase will exceed 3.5ºC (6.3ºF) in 2095 MIT Temperature Study

  16. and a 50% chance that temperature will exceed 5ºC (9ºF)! MIT Temperature Study

  17. What Does +4°C (+7°F) Mean? • “Incompatible with an organized global community • Likely to be beyond ‘adaption’ • Devastating to the majority of ecosystems • High probability of not being stable • i.e., temperatures will keep going higher on their own • Must be avoided at all costs.” From Prof. Kevin Anderson, Tyndall Energy Centre, UK

  18. But We Can Do Something!

  19. Permafrost

  20. Methane Release from Lake

  21. Other Dangers:All Already Happening • Reduction of ocean’s ability to absorb CO2 & acidification • Collapse of forests / increased wild fires • Spread of deserts • Mega-droughts and floods • Mass extinctions • More extreme weather • Reduction in global food production

  22. Future Impacts • Wars over resources • Abandonment of many major cities • Massive shortages of food and water • Collapse of economies

  23. Revelation #6 We are all in denial.

  24. Failure of the “Risk Thermostat” We respond strongest Climate Change is: to threats that are: Visible Invisible With historical precedent Unprecedented Immediate Drawn out With simple causality With complex causality Have direct personal impacts Unpredictable & indirect impacts Caused by another “tribe” (enemy) Caused by all of us George Marshall, Climate Outreach Information Network

  25. Denial Strategies S. Stoll-Kleemann, et al, Global Environmental Change 11 (2001) 107}117

  26. Other Denial Strategies • We think of it as an environmental issue • We deliberately maintain a level of ignorance • We wait for someone else to act first - the “passive bystander effect” • Societies develop strategies to avoid action • We place it outside our “norms of attention” • Define it as “far away” - global - not local; future - not now

  27. What to Do?

  28. First Law of Holes Revelation #7 If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging. Denis Healey

  29. What about fracking, tar sands, Arctic drilling, and “All of the Above” energy policies?

  30. Revelation #8 To the surprise of almost everyone, it turns out that you cannot decrease fossil fuel emissions by increasing them!

  31. Revelation #9

  32. 2 Years Left to Reverse the Trend

  33. We can make it happen Revelation #10

  34. What Can YOU Do? • Believe, learn, engage • Reduce your carbon footprint • Talk to your family, friends & colleagues and get them engaged. • Talk to your elected leaders and demand policy changes • Commit to taking specific actions and make a list

  35. Good Ways to Get Engaged • Join 350.org • Join CitizensClimateLobby.org

  36. What Can Governments Do? • Move to 100% carbon-free electricity generation in 10~20 years (i.e., ban coal) • Keep tar-sands and oil shale in the ground • Expand research into “geo-engineering” • Put a price on carbon...

  37. Clean Energy Credit • Put an increasing fee on CO2 • Enough to eventually increase gasoline by $1/gal • Distribute 100% of the money collected to every legal resident on an equal basis • Most people will earn more each year than they pay in higher energy costs! • Put a Border Duty on products coming from other countries that don’t have a carbon fee

  38. What Else Can Governments Do? • Stop subsidizing fossil fuels • Provide low-cost financing for clean energy • Increase R&D spending on cleantech • Plan for climate impacts We must manage the unavoidableand avoid the unmanageable

  39. Cost of acting is cheap compared to the cost of not acting Revelation #11

  40. An Economic Boom • Putting a price on CO2 will drive innovation and investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency • Will trigger an economic boom that will put the Internet revolution to shame • Will also improve energy security and eliminate the need to fight wars over oil

  41. Jobs. Jobs. Jobs. • We’ll keep the $500B+ we send to the Middle East in this country, creating millions of jobs. • From 1998 to 2007, clean energy economy jobs grew 9.1% vs. 3.7% for traditional jobs (Pew Charitable Trusts research) • Cleantech is currently one of the few growing areas in the California economy

  42. When it comes to action on climate change, we are going to go from impossible to inevitable without stopping at probable Revelation #12 But you need to make it happen soon!

  43. For More Information Please visit: ClimatePlace.org

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