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Dec 18-19, OSAKA

Dec 18-19, OSAKA. IPv6. The New Internet. TAMING THE NET. I Love You. Famous Last Words. ”The telephone would be used only to inform people of arrival of telegrams.". 1876 : Alexander G. BELL invents the PHONE 1838: Samuel MORSE invents the TELEGRAPH. -- 15 % Penetration.

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Dec 18-19, OSAKA

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  1. Dec 18-19, OSAKA IPv6 The New Internet

  2. TAMING THE NET I Love You

  3. Famous Last Words • ”The telephone would be used only to inform people of arrival of telegrams." 1876: Alexander G. BELL invents the PHONE 1838: Samuel MORSE invents the TELEGRAPH -- 15 % Penetration -- 2 Days Walk for 1 Billion people

  4. Famous Last Words • "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." • "640K ought to be enough for anybody." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943. -- Bill Gates, 1981

  5. Famous Last Words • “32 bits should be enough address space for Internet” -- Vint Cerf, 1977 • “Not everything that can be counted, counts. And not everything that counts, can be counted” -- Einstein, 1879-1955

  6. 1996 ARPANET DEMONSTRATION Johannesburg, South Africa, 1974 1974 2000 IP on Everything v6

  7. Industry Standards Drive Ubiquity Television(1926) Electricity(1873) Microwave(1953) Radio(1905) Telephone(1876) VCR(1952) Automobile(1886) PC(1975) Internet(1975) 100 80 60 Percentage of Ownership 40 20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Years Since Introduction

  8. Internet TimeLine 1961 1969 NCP 1969 1982 ARPANET • NCP Conception • NCP Roll-Out IP Conception IPv4 Roll-Out 1972 1982 IPv4 1983 Now! INTERNET 1991 1995-Now IPv6 Conception IPv6 Roll-Out IPv6 2000 NEW INTERNET

  9. Internet Generations NEW INTERNET INTERNET ARPANET

  10. How Many behind Firewalls and NATs? Users on the Internet Mar 10, 2000 Sep 7, 2000 • CAN/US - 125 162 • Europe - 48 59 • Asia/Pac - 46 67 • Latin Am - 10 14 • Africa - 3 3 -------------------------------------------------- • Total - 232 305 Mio Source: Telcordia

  11. Will IP Scale and remain Robust ? • 75% of traffic on Internet is WWW • 3 Million Web Sites (est. Jan 1999) • 700 Million web pages (and dark info) • Data Domination (20% voice, 80% data) • 8000 ISPs worldwide (4700+ in U.S.) • Traffic growth 100-1000%/year reported • 300 M - 1000 M users by Dec 2002

  12. Can the Internet runQuality & Security in one go? • Internet multicast “video”, telephony and “radio” • Transport of Internet traffic on cable, direct broadcast satellite, radio and broadcast TV • Real-time quality of service support, VoIP • Mutual Reinforcement among media (print, TV, radio, web, email)

  13. Internet-enabled DevicesIn need of IP Addresses, at least! • Information appliances • 1997 - 3 M, 1998 - 6 M, 2002 - 56 M (IDC) • WebTV, Palm-Pilot, Nokia 9000,Sony, Nintendo, Sega games • Wearable computers (Hardwear?, Underware?)

  14. InfoCom Application Areas Appliance Person Growing Emerging Notifications ITS Appliance Alarm Telemetry Fax Computer TeIephony Integration Home Banking Email Person Voice Voice Control VoiceMail Maturing Growing

  15. Source: Cadence, 1998

  16. Wireless Internet • e.g.Internet cell phones, cameras • “always on” networking • increasing demand for IP address space • “Bluetooth”,Wireless LANs, LMDS and MMDS, Digital Broadcast Satellite • Mobile Radio - • 3G cellular (2 Mb/s)

  17. World Wide Wireless Looking for Killer Apps?

  18. Any Time, Any Where

  19. Future Services Voice still key service Mobile e-mail Mobile E-commerce Mobile internet Mobile office Vertical applications Mobile images

  20. Vision: World at your fingertips ADSL, Cable TV,... Service Gateway

  21. “The New Telecom World …. Beyond Voice” IPv6

  22. 1800 Mobile subscribers 1600 1400 Fixed line (dial-up) subscribers 1200 Millions 1000 Mobile Internet users 800 600 PC/NC Internet users 400 200 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 The Rush to the Billion! Mobile Internet:‘in 4 years as large as 10 years GSM today’ 1 B

  23. v6 Global IP Mobility Seamless services Mobile Information Society Wireless, secure, high speed access Mobile multimedia Fast Internet & Intranet Messaging internet always on Shared databases & applications Mobile telephony IPv6 IP Wide AreaCoverage Local AreaCoverage

  24. 3G-IPv6 Service Perspective Reconfigurable Radio Wireless Information Society Satellite Broadband S-UMTS 4th Generation Broadband W-LAN Bluetooth DVB-S Personal Area Networks IPv6 Satellite/HAPS DVB-T IR DAB UMTS ++ Body LANs Indoor Broadband WFA Broadcasting UMTS GPRS/EDGE MBS 60 MWS Local Area Networks GSM MBS 40 xMDS Cellular Wireless Local Loop Quasi-Cellular Source: Joao DaSilva

  25. Strategic IPv6 Icebreakers

  26. 100% IPv6 readiness by 2005 • Prime Mister, Yoshiro Mori • Jun Murai’s Speech at IST 2000 in Nice

  27. The Transparency of the Internet ( Network Layer ) Why IPv6 ?

  28. IP Robustness & Scalability IPv6 IPv4 ? - Address Space Shortage Security QoS Mobility Cost of System Management Add-on Built-in Lack of Capability needed for Next Generation Applications N Y? IPv4 ((NAT))IPv6 1970 1980 1990 2000 IPv4 is in the same state as DOS/Windows 3.1!

  29. Internet IP Address Need forecasts 200 Millions IPv4 = 1 inch IPv6 = Diameter of our Galaxy Source: Internet Software Consortium (http://www.isc.org)

  30. Comparison of IPv4 - v6 Resources IPv6 IPv4

  31. Have-Nots IP Address Haves &

  32. Have-Nots IP Address Haves &

  33. Wireless Mobility Neeed for Always-On IP Address Resource

  34. Growth in BGP Route Table IPv4 = 100,000 IPv6 = 8,192 But they cannot be relied on forever Growth rate:~15000 routes/year Source: http//www.telstra.net/ ops/bgptable.html Projected routing table growth without CIDR/NAT Moore’s Law and NATs make routing work today Deployment Period of CIDR

  35. The Internet Tidal Wave Early conclusion Internet Growth IPv6 + Wireless Growth + Always-On + Info Soft Appliances  Internet 2000 is a baby! 100 IP Adds/person!

  36. Yv4 IPv4 Finally The longer the upgrade is postponed, the costlier it will be and the more complex the transition will be ! (compared to Y2K IPv6 Forum

  37. The New Internet IPv4 1 billion + Connected Devices IPv6 NCP IP Evolution WWW WWW Email @ 100m 1983 1969 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

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