Missing Person Behaviour

1. Missing Person Behaviour For Lowland Search Dog TeamsBerkshire Search and Rescue DogsJanuary 2010

2. Who am I? Robert Bradley • Fellow - Institute Civil Protection and Emergency Management • Member - Institute for Learning • Volunteer Instructor with UKLSI • Search Website – www.re-search.org.uk • Soon to open – The SAR Bookshop

3. Tonight’s Talk • What are “missing person stats”? • How do they help? • ALSAR Callouts • Search is an Emergency • Distance from IPP • Find Location • Visualising Misper Stats

4. Missing Person Statistics History • 1783 – Father Lorenzo, Switzerland • 1975 – Syrotuck, Washington & New York • 1991 – Ken Hill, Nova Scotia • 1992 – Robert Koester, Virginia • 2002 – Perkins, Roberts & Feeney, MR • 2007 – Gibb & Woolnough, Grampian • 2008 – ISRID

5. Grampian Stats Reproduced in ACPO Search Guidance Based upon approx. 3000 cases, mostly Police incident reports. Not yet fully published, so no numbers for each category are known.

6. ISRID Published in Bob Koester’s (excellent) book Lost Person Behavior, dbs-sar publications Based upon 50,000 incidents worldwide, Australia - 556 New Zealand - 2460 UK - 689 Others include Switzerland, South Africa and Canada as well as the US.

7. Grampian vs ISRID I have been very careful to be self-serving when setting up the ISRID database.  I am a search and rescue incident commander who responds to searches after local initial law enforcement efforts have failed.  I wanted data that would help me the most from a planning perspective.  Since Lost Person Behavior statistics are based upon the simple but important premise that past cases are the best predictions of future cases you want to make sure your past cases are as similar to your future case (the person you are looking for right now who most likely is not in your database).  I often say ISRID is a tertiary database.  A primary database would collect data from parents and caregivers and hunting buddies who have looked for a lost person.  A secondary database would be initial law enforcement efforts and finally we have a tertiary database that looks at only cases when the first two fail. I maintain the data you get from each type of data source would be different.  A parent looking for the missing two-year old last seen in the house should look in the house and yard.  Using a SAR database which might have them 400 meters away might not be the best approach.  Likewise, a SAR team that only looks in the house, next door, then calls it quits and goes home might not be so great. I have talked to Penny regarding the Grampian data.  I learned that it was based upon 3000 cases, but further details she did not want to release until she had published a paper in an academic journal. I can understand and related to that.  My reading between the lines suggested it collected mostly urban data from law enforcement sources.  I surmised a mix of secondary and tertiary sources.  I would say it is best to try to match an actual search with statistics that best match as similar circumstances as possible.  No database is more or less correct.  However, each database will be best matched to different cases. Personal Correspondence With Bob Koester

8. What do they tell us? Distance from IPP Elevation Change Mobility Dispersion Find Location Scenario Survivability Track Offset Taken from Lost Person Behavior, Bob Koester, dbs-SAR PublicationsAvailable from the SAR Bookshop

9. What don’t they tell us? And other lost person behaviour myths… Turning in the direction of the dominant hand Searching around the median Lost persons travel downhill Over 65s are one category Where to find the misper!

10. So what use are they? Search Manager To put YOU in the right place to searchin the right order… Search Dog Team To search the right placesin the right way…

11. Lowland Search Misper Types Taken from study of ALSAR Stats – 2006 to 2009

12. Search is an Emergency Why? Despondents; Survivability: >24 hours only 43% alive Dementia Survivability: >24 hours 77% aliveMobility: 50% immobile within 15 minutes Taken from Lost Person Behavior, Bob Koester, dbs-SAR PublicationsAvailable from the SAR Bookshop

13. and…? Surely we’ve always known this? Highlights the importance of Searching in the right placein the right orderand in the right way!

14. What is the right way? “Clearing” one area and having the misper die in the next area is NOT the right way

15. A Mission To rid lowland search of the term “Cleared” With the exception of one or two high priority areas vulnerable missing person search is not about clearing areas!

16. So what should we do? The job of EVERYONE duringa vulnerable missing person searchis to maximise theProbability of Successof the search. (To find the missing person, wherever they might be, as quickly as possible!)

17. Are you sure? A B Tactic One POS 24% Tactic Two POS 42% Tactic Three POS 59% C D A B C D Taken from Success Fast, Steve Upton A B C D

18. Some Missing Person Stats Two main categories of lowland search misper Despondents Dementia

19. Distances from IPP Taken from Lost Person Behavior, Bob Koester, dbs-SAR PublicationsAvailable from the SAR Bookshop

20. Find Location Taken from Lost Person Behavior, Bob Koester, dbs-SAR PublicationsAvailable from the SAR Bookshop

21. Track Offset Taken from Lost Person Behavior, Bob Koester, dbs-SAR PublicationsAvailable from the SAR Bookshop

22. Visualising Misper Stats 3 year old girl, Daisy 3ft, Blonde Hair Last seen wearing Blue “Cinderella” Dress Ran out of house whilst dad was preparing talk two hours ago.

23. And so on maps… 25% 25% 25%

24. Areas 6.28km2 0.75km2 0.031km2

25. Probability Density 4 33 806

26. Visually

27. Now go away and play Whilst I could present all these… It is easier to “learn” them by DIY!

28. To help Area of circle = π r2 Area of doughnut = Large circle – smaller circle Probability Density = POA / Area