The Global Environmental Change and Human Security Project

1. “environmental stress, often the result of global environmental change coupled with increasingly vulnerable societies, may contribute to insecurity” GECHS Science Plan The Global Environmental Change and Human Security Project

2. Purpose: INTRODUCTION • Review development of GECHS. • Highlight recent activities and planned research • Discuss GECAFS:CFS - GECHS linkages [next]

3. GECHS Origins • Redefinition of traditional security concepts • Human security & the Canadian/international policy agenda • Environment & economy linkages • Critical zones mapping [next]

4. Key Questions Underlying GECHS Context: Response Options: • What types of environmental change threaten human security? What strategies are potentially available to cope with the insecurities caused by environmental change? • How does environmental change threaten human security? • What is the present extent of insecurity? Analysis: • Which regions and groups are the most insecure? • Why are some strategies selected? • Can we predict future insecurities? • Why are some effective? • Why are some regions and groups more vulnerable to specific environmental change than others? • How can obstacles be overcome? [next]

5. Human Security Defined Human Security is : having the options necessary to end, mitigate or adapt to threats to their human, environmental and social rights; participating in attaining these options; & having the capacity and freedom to exercise these options.

6. Improving human security means improving livelihood Human security is the capacity to overcome vulnerability and to respond positively to environmental change

7. GECHS Goals • to advance interdisciplinary, international research • to advance policy efforts in the area of human security & environmental change • to promote collaborative & participatory research • to encourage new methodological approaches [next]

8. Current Project Structure • International Project Office • University of Victoria (99-02) • Carleton University (02-present) • Project Chair • Mike Brklacich, Carleton University • Scientific Steering Committee • Australia, Cambodia, Canada, Costa Rica, Netherlands, Ghana, Norway, Russia, USA • Project Website: www.gechs.org

9. GECHS ACTIVITIES • Research Themes & Projects • Three GEC Vulnerability Case Studies • Human Insecurity Index (Macro) • Double Exposure in India (Macro & Micro) • Food System Vulnerabilities: Canadian Cases (Micro) [next]

10. GECHS ResearchThemes & Activities • Conceptual & Theoretical Issues • Environ., Resource Use & HS • Population, Environment & HS • Modelling Environmental Stress & Human Vulnerability • Institutions & Policy Development in Environmental Security • Policy Briefings [next]

11. Human Vulnerability:Science – Policy Linkages • Identify vulnerable populations/regions • Assess interventions to reduce human vulnerability • Trade-offs between improving adaptive capacity vs mitigation vs multi-dimensional responses

12. Human Insecurity Index • National Level Study • Employ Existing Data • Illustrate Current Potential & Applications PI: S. Lonergan [next]

13. Reminder: Human Security Human security is having the capacity to overcome vulnerability and respond positively to global environmental change Multi-dimensional indicators required

14. Human Insecurity Indicator Set Environment Net energy imports (% of energy use) Soil degradation (tonnes/yr) Safe water (% of pop with access) Arable land (ha/person) Economy Real GDP (USD/capita) Annual GNP growth (%/capita) Adult literacy rate (% pop 15+) Value of imports (% of GDP)

15. Indicator Set Cont’d Society Urban pop growth (%/yr) Young male pop (% 0-14 of tot pop) Maternal mortality (per 100,000 births) Life expectancy (yrs) Institutions Public expenditures: defense vs social services (% of GDP) Gross domestic fixed investment(%GDP) Degree of democratization (1-7) Human freedoms index(1-40)

16. Index of Human Insecurity Example Source: Lonergan 2000

17. Climatic Change and Economic GlobalizationIn Indian Agriculture: Policy Implications PI: K. O’Brien [next]

18. Main Objectives • Assess vulnerability of agriculture to climate change and economic changes • Assess how social and economic policies enhance or constrain farmers’ ability to adapt to climate change in the context of globalization (e.g., by limiting/increasing choices) • Suggest measures to reduce vulnerability of farmers to global change

19. Context • Agriculture in India • 27 % GDP • 700 million people • more than 60 % is rainfed cultivation • Both climate change and economic globalization are ongoing processes with uneven impacts. • Indian agriculture will be confronted by both processes simultaneously, leading to changing patterns of vulnerability.

20. Methodology • GIS-based vulnerability profile • Village-level case studies • Integration of macro- and micro- scale analyses • Policy survey and recommendations

21. Climate change vulnerability Globalization vulnerability Elements of Vulnerability Profiles • Biophysical vulnerability • Soil degradation and cover • Flood prone districts • Groundwater extraction Climate sensitivity index (precipitation variability and dryness) Vulnerability index Trade sensitivity index (port distance and export- & import- sensitive crops) • Socioeconomic vulnerability • Agricultural workers and laborers • Gender discrimination • Literacy • Infrastructure • Irrigation availability

22. Data not available High vulnerability Climate change vulnerability map Low vulnerability

23. Globalization vulnerability map Data not available Low vulnerability High vulnerability

24. To assess key factors which enhance or constrain farmers’ ability to adapt Pilot study in Jhalawar district, Rajasthan semi-arid 84% rural population 30-40% below poverty line 50-70% land under cultivation 21% area irrigated Data not available High vulnerability Village-Level Case Studies Jhalawar district, Rajasthan Low vulnerability

25. Case Study Results: 1 Unequal access to markets, irrigation, credit, and other non-price inputs

26. Case Study Results: 2 Different Strategies for Coping with Climate Stress • Shift towards less water-intensive crops • Change net cropped area • Seasonal migration to Gujarat for construction-related employment

27. Next Steps • Feedback of case study results into macro-level vulnerability profile • Develop matrix relating globalization, climate vulnerability, and policies for agriculture sector • Recommendations for adaptation to reduce vulnerability to multiple aspects of global change.

28. Eastern Ontario, CanadaCase Studies • Renfrew County 1995 • RMOC 1998 • On-going 2002-05 PI: M. Brklacich [next]

29. Renfrew & RMOC Case Studies • Whole farm decision making focus • Embedded climatic change • Focus group I • In-depth personal interviews • Renfrew: 30 RMOC: 55 • Interview structure • Farm characteristics • Previous farm changes • Perceived climatic change • Climatic change scenario • Focus group II

30. RMOC CASE STUDY:FARM MGT CHANGES 87-97 % of Farms Responding

31. RMOC CASE STUDY:PERCEIVED CLIMATIC CHANGE 77-97 No of Farms

32. RMOC CASE STUDY: RESPONSE TOPERCEIVED CLIMATIC CHANGE (77-97) Livestock farms (n=27) Diversified farms (n=28)

33. RMOC CASE STUDY:CONCLUIDNG COMMENTS • Climate vs other stimuli • Differential response options • Differential vulnerability

34. NEXT STEPS2002 - 2005 SOCIO-ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTABILITY OF AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT OF EASTERN ONTARIO, WEST QUEBEC & UPSATE NEW YORK

35. Concluding Comments • Vulnerability as a social science – policy linkage • Vulnerability concepts vs applications • Science to reduce vulnerability to multiple stressors • Improving science & policy relationships

36. GECHS Partnerships Public Sector Partners SSHRC, CIDA, IDRC, University of Victoria, Carleton University, US AID, WWC, University of Michigan, Norwegian Research Council, Norwegian Foreign Ministry, IHDP, ICSU, UNESCO, NATO, APN, EU ENRICH Private Sector Partners Procter & Gamble [next]