2012 Elections: Nation, State and County

1. 2012 Elections: Nation, State and County Dan Nataf, Ph.D. Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne Arundel Community College www2.aacc.edu/csli

2. Goals • Presidential Election – overview of 2012 results • Raw vote count, Electoral College • Change from 2008 • Pollster tracking polls and predictions • Exit polls – voter coalitions for Obama and Romney • Lessons – Democratic Lean… • Maryland • Presidential vote • Referenda results • Lessons: Blue Maryland • Anne Arundel County • Presidential vote • Referenda vote • Lessons: Purple County

3. National Results

4. National Results Obama raw vote margins: 2008: 9,522,083 2012: 4,970,644 (2012 vs. 2008: down 4,551,439)

5. Popular Vote: 1952-2012

6. Electoral College Percentages: 1952-2012

7. How did the pollsters do?Gallup Tracking Poll – Sept. – Nov. 4 Registered voters – add 3+/- to Romney for likely voters Oct 11 Oct 3

8. How did the pollsters do:Washington Post/ABC Daily Tracking Poll (Likely voters)

9. Battleground Vote Estimates 11-1

10. Exit Poll: Demographics

11. Exit Poll: Issues

12. National Lessons • Presidential elections: Trending Democratic, regional divide, maximize base turnout • Democratic issues: pro-choice, health reform, foreign policy, tax rich, immigration reform • Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, African-Americans, Latinos, seculars, single, under 30 • Lean Democratic: moderates, 30-44, women, • Uncertain: Suburbanites, Catholics (economy/inflation) • Republican issues: pro-life, no tax increases, less spending/deficit, no immigration reform • Lean Republican: unaffiliated/indep., Protestants, married, males, 45-64, 65+ • Solid Republican: Conservatives, rural, white, southern

13. Maryland: Presidential Results – Solidly Democratic

14. Presidential Vote by County, % Supporting

15. Redistricting by County, % Supporting

16. Dream Act by County, % Supporting

17. Support by County 0.0 to 0.31 0.32 to 0.40 0.41 to 0.47 0.48 to 0.53 0.54 to 0.6 0.61 to 0.70 0.71 to 1.0 Casino Approval by County

18. Same Sex Marriage, % Supporting

19. Lessons for State Elections • Democratic hegemony remains unchanging • Solid Democratic jurisdictions – Montgomery, PG, Charles, Baltimore City • Lean Democratic - Howard, Baltimore County • Battleground Counties: Anne Arundel, Kent, Somerset, Wicomico, Dorchester

20. Anne Arundel County – Council Districts

21. Anne Arundel County State Legislative Districts

22. Anne Arundel County:Presidential Vote: 2008 vs. 2012

23. AA County Election Lessons • County has purple qualities – support some Democratic initiatives (SSM, redistricting) but less so others (Dream Act, Casinos) • Maximum turnout election results in very closely divided electorate • Local Democratic candidates – can they run as liberal as state/national party/candidates? • Local Republican candidates – how conservative can they be? • Council districts seem evenly split: Dem: 1, 4, 6; Rep: 3,5, 7. Battleground district is 2

24. AAC: Obama Vote by Demographics

25. Dream Act by Demographic Variables

26. Same Sex Marriage by Demographics

27. Dream Act by Demographic Variables

28. AAC: Demographic Lessons • Solid Democratic voters: Liberals, Blacks (except SSM), Jews, $0-50k, seculars, single, under 30 • Lean Democratic: moderates, 31-40, women, $150-250k • Uncertain: some college, BA, PostGrad work, 61-70 • Lean Republican: unaffiliated, HS Diploma, $50-150k, >$250k, white, Protestants, Catholic, married, males, 41-60, 71+ • Solid Republican: Conservatives, 2 year degree, Other Christians, White Evangelicals