SAMI Consulting, St Andrews Management Institute

1. SAMI Consulting, St Andrews Management Institute Scenario Planning And IT Decision Making Dr Chris Yapp Chris_yapp@hotmail.co.uk IT Decisions Conference June 2011 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

2. SAMI Our offer To enhance the capability to anticipate To transform emergent thinking into strategy and implementation Consulting, executive education and research to deliver “robust decisions in uncertain times” “You can never plan the future by the past” Edmund Burke, 1729-1797 www.samiconsulting.co.uk

3. Formed in 1989 Until 1999 based at St Andrews University Now virtual, owned by University & Fellows Celebrated our 20th anniversary at the Royal Society People: 8 Fellows, Director level experience in major organisations, public and private sectors, Consult, teach & write on business, policy, strategy and futures, leadership; 7 Principals, Senior experience in major organisations, public and private sectors, Experts in aspects of futures, strategic planning and organisational development Also 46 Associates with specialist expertise eg Sectors: oil & gas, ICT, FS, construction, government, health, NGOs Functional specialists: innovation, creative spaces, audio-visual communication, occupational psychology, reconfiguration ----- Who we are www.samiconsulting.co.uk

4. Futures Thinking Contingency planning Scenarios Systems thinking Complexity theory Ethnographic Futures www.samiconsulting.co.uk

5. Imagine 2011 in 1981 • Technology • WWW • Mobile Phones • iPOD/PAD/Phone • DAB • DTT,HDTV,3DTV • Wii,Xbox360,PS3 • BUT AI?, VideoConf?, Concorde 2,Bullet trains, FTTH,Flying cars… • What about • Chelsea FC owned by a Russian • BRICs • Global Terrorism • Climate Change • Bollywood • HIV/AIDS

6. My Experience over 30 years • 20% will happen as consensus • 15% will happen but slower than consensus • 5% will happen faster than consensus • 15% will be superceded before it happens • 10% stalls/disappoints • 20% just doesn’t happen • 15% is off Radar www.samiconsulting.co.uk

7. Three Horizons

8. Repeating Problems • Standards Wars • WIIFM • Infrastructure lags • Long-term capacity developments www.samiconsulting.co.uk

9. What type of future? • Desired ( my plan) • Desirable ( Plan B) • Plausible ( time to rethink?) • Consensus ( my contrarian plan) • Unpleasant ( don’t want to go there) www.samiconsulting.co.uk

10. Beware… • Modern Myths • This time it’s different… • Putting New in front of everything.. • Everything has a history • Revolution or cohort effects • Roadblocks (IPv6?)

11. Unpicking Assumptions “The problem is that companies just don’t get Web 2.0. The benefits are out there and the tools are cheap. Planning is expensive and wasteful. Get on with realising the benefits” A Social Media guru • While at the same time... • Predicted 100% compound growth for 5 years • All existing services would still be there and free • Values of today’s teenagers would still be their values in 10 years • Governments wouldn’t regulate... www.samiconsulting.co.uk

12. 1066 and All That Roundheads Right Cavaliers Wrong Romantic Repulsive www.samiconsulting.co.uk

13. The Futurists Dilemma ? Focussed Theme High Credibility Broad Vision Low Credibility Right Wrong www.samiconsulting.co.uk

14. Dimensions of the Current Challenge structural Economic Change Market Step Change Niche Portfolio Reactive Proactive Strategic Response Sitting Tight Mopping up cyclical www.samiconsulting.co.uk

15. Dynamics of the Current Challenge New Entrant structural Economic Change Market Step Change Niche Portfolio Reactive Proactive Strategic Response Sitting Tight Mopping up cyclical www.samiconsulting.co.uk

16. Problem Types Do we know where We are going? YES Best practice Scaling practice TASK: Operational Management TASK: Process Development NO YES Do we know How to get There? TASK: Direction Setting TASK: Concept Creation Next practice Emerging practice NO After Eddie Obeng www.samiconsulting.co.uk

17. Whose Problem? High Political System Think Tank Complexity Consultant Wisdom of The Crowds Academic /Expert Low Low High Uncertainty www.samiconsulting.co.uk

18. What value? High Political System Think Tank Track record Complexity Ideas Consultant Wisdom of The Crowds Knowledge Academic /Expert Low Low High Uncertainty www.samiconsulting.co.uk

19. During Step Change? High Political System Consultancy squeezed as limited track record Think Tank Complexity Consultant Wisdom of The Crowds Academic /Expert Low Low High Uncertainty www.samiconsulting.co.uk

20. Timing “In the Future blind People will Be able to drive cars” www.samiconsulting.co.uk

21. Results • Probability 0.9 with some 0.2 • Today with Resources: 1-3 years • In practice: 3-10 years • In reality: 10-100 years www.samiconsulting.co.uk

22. Why do we get it wrong? Today!!! Prisoners of Language Timing Unintended consequences Sources of Innovation Ask the wrong question/people? Culture Events www.samiconsulting.co.uk

23. Not understanding today… Societies taboos Bubbles Poor data for emerging trends Examples Police Paedophiles Education International/global interconnectivity www.samiconsulting.co.uk

24. Timing Inevitability-Predictability Risk and uncertainty Unforseen barriers Social factors Long-term skill developments www.samiconsulting.co.uk

25. Sources of Innovation Manufacturer Active Process User Active process Source: Eric Von Hippel, MIT

26. Innovation • Open Innovation has a 200 year history • Innovation with lead users preceded the internet • Professional solve their own problems • Big shift in computing is that consumers not industry in the driving seat.

27. A Rose by any other name.. Bouba Kiki www.samiconsulting.co.uk

28. Learning from the edge:Synesthesia www.samiconsulting.co.uk

29. Prisoners of Language 1,000,000 cars People will always want shoes Classroom of the Future Library with no books 5 Computers www.samiconsulting.co.uk

30. Who do you ask? “ What do you teach a child at 5 years old So that they will be IT Literate at 20? www.samiconsulting.co.uk

31. Core to the problem.. The different disciplines involved The hardware doesn’t exist The software hasn’t been written Some of the key companies haven’t yet been formed So who do you ask? www.samiconsulting.co.uk

32. Organisational culture Specialists and generalists Personal credibility Tolerance of uncertainty Story telling Leadership www.samiconsulting.co.uk

33. Events • 9/11 • BSE • Coalition Government • Middle East: Tunisia, Egypt...... • BLACK SWANS www.samiconsulting.co.uk

34. Uncertainties Today • Web 2.0 bubble? • IPv4 to IPv6 transition • Sustainability of Free/Freemium.. • Impact of Regulation, e.g. EU • Privacy, security • Business models? • Interdependencies... • IPR regimes • Everything has a history...? • Demographics.... • Energy Security • Public/Private Clouds www.samiconsulting.co.uk

35. Overoptimism or hype? www.samiconsulting.co.uk

36. Hofstadter’s Law It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter's Law www.samiconsulting.co.uk

37. Any Questions? Thank You! My BCS blog: http://www.bcs.org/content/conBlog/20 Twitter: @chris_yapp www.samiconsulting.co.uk