Towards a Hydrogen Economy Co-evolution between Institutions and Technology

1. Towards a Hydrogen EconomyCo-evolution between Institutions and Technology Daniel Scholten 3 March 2008

2. Contents • Coherence as Objective • Situation Sketch • Coherence Applied • Dynamic Coherence? • Problems with Coherence

3. Coherence as Objective • Coherence between I and T is important for performance • From past to future: coherence as a policy objective • Dilemma: coherence is static concept, unfit for processes • Option: combine insights of coherence with co-evolution • Problem owner: Dutch national government policy makers • Case: hydrogen as energy carrier for transit applications • How can the Dutch government stimulate coherence and co-evolution between I and T while making a transition to a hydrogen economy?

4. Government push Market pull Market pull Current position Suboptimal solution, but optimal with current technology Technical breakthrough Area of optimal solutions with H2 innovation Situation Sketch

5. Coherence Applied • Model hydrogen introduction as an S-curve with four phases. • Develop transition roadmaps for hydrogen in The Netherlands • Use coordination mechanisms to go from T to I (all layers) • Use co-evolutionary theory to analyze the likelihood of coherence emerging out of government policies from phase to phase • So: coordination mechanisms are useful to design I fitting T settings

6. Dynamic Coherence?

7. Problems with Coherence • Some problems: • Too much ‘coherences’ (between layers, I and T, per phase, over chain) • Coherence works within paradigms, not with shift of paradigm • Multiple technologies possible  multiple equilibria  coherence? • Transition process alters role of ‘economics of infrastructures’ • Co-evolutionary processes involve element of choice, not solely efficiency and effectiveness • So: coherence useful for policy formulation, but is lost in execution • What can stimulating co-evolution mean to remedy this?

8. Questions? Thank You!