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John Byrne April 26, 2010

A C LIMATE P OLICY C HALLENGE A CTING BEYOND THE E LECTION – M EDIA C YCLE. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy. John Byrne April 26, 2010. CF 4. CO 2. CH 4. HCFC-22. CFC-11. N 2 O. Pre-industrial Concentration. ~280 ppmv. zero. zero. ~700 ppbv. zero. ~275 ppbv.

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John Byrne April 26, 2010

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  1. ACLIMATE POLICY CHALLENGE ACTING BEYOND THE ELECTION – MEDIA CYCLE Center for Energy and Environmental Policy John Byrne April 26, 2010

  2. CF4 CO2 CH4 HCFC-22 CFC-11 N2O Pre-industrial Concentration ~280 ppmv zero zero ~700 ppbv zero ~275 ppbv Concentration in 2009 1790 ppbv 260 pptv 110 pptv 390 ppmv 70 pptv 340 ppbv Rate of Concentration Change* 1.2 pptv/yr 5 pptv/yr 0.8 ppbv/yr 0 pptv/yr 10 ppbv/yr 1.5 ppmv/yr 0.6 %/yr 5 %/yr 0.25 %/yr 0 %/yr 0.4 %/yr 2 %/yr Atmospheric lifetime (years) 12 50 50,000 50 - 200 120 12 * The growth rates of CO2, CH4, and N2O are averaged over 25 years beginning in 1984; halocarbon growth rates are based on recent years. Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Modernized Atmosphere

  3. Climbing Conventional Energy Prices: U.S. Retail Prices (Nominal) Center for Energy and Environmental Policy 300% 275% NG Gasoline 250% Heating Oil 225% Electricity 200% U.S. Energy Price Increases 175% 150% 125% Yr 2000 Price 75% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Source: U.S. EIA database and Annual Energy Outlook (2009)

  4. 9.8% of GDP in 2008 Highest in 25 yrs Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Energy Expenditures as % of US GDP Source: Data used to prepare EIA Annual Energy Outlook, March 2009

  5. MORE US RENEWABLES…alone…WILL NOT REALIZE 60% LESS 53% of Supply 24% of Supply 30.6% 9.6% 42.3% 14.8% 20.1% 44.6% 4.1% 21.2% 5.6% 1.7% 4.8% 0.5% 128% 126% 123% 123% Needed E-E & Conservation 104% 50% IPCC Estimate of Needed Cut 2000 Assumptions: 1) US renewables grow at 2X the experience rate of Germany (currently the fastest in the world); 2) phaseout all coal power plants by 2050; 3) US electricity demand grows at 2% per yr (EIA); 4) energy efficiency improvement of 0.9%/yr (EIA). 5,201 TWh 3,789 TWh 7,087 TWh 2.1% 7.3% 19.9% 51.9% 2.9% 15.9% Coal NG Oil Nuclear Large Hydro Renewables 2050 2025 CO2 Emissions as a % of US 1990 Levels Electricity All Energy

  6. Delawareans use 45% more electricity than Californians USENERGYOBESITY Per capita residential electricity use 1960-2007 United States California Delaware EIA, 2009 State Energy Data System (SEDS); U.S. Census Bureau, 2008, 2000, 1990

  7. 23.7 7.8 12.0 (51%) 4.2 7.2 (30%) IPCC Assessment of Principal Mitigation Options 25 15 5 GT CO2-e 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 - 5 New Emissions Above 1990 Needed Emission Reductions - 15 Non-Electric Efficiency & Conservation Improvements 2.5 (10%) Electric Efficiency & Conservation Improvements 2.0 ( 9%) Sustainable Land Use & Transport Planning - 25 Renewable Energy Other* * Other includes 1.1 Gt CO2-e reduced through several options including: carbon capture & storage; waste & wastewater management; new nuclear power plant designs. Source: IPCC 2007. Fourth Assessment Report, WG III Report, Mitigation of Climate Change. Supporting Sources: Olivier et al 2005 & 2006; WBCSD 2004.

  8. State and Local Governments Innovate to Cut Energy Waste February 11, 2010 Testimony of John D. Podesta before Vice President Biden's Middle Class Task Force February 27, 2009 An alternative plan Delaware's Sustainable Energy Utility fits into a larger national movement away from the traditional way of doing programs with utilities in charge. The alternative plan…is to reshape the business: Make it possible…to profit from efficiency, not just from selling electrons… The model also works for renewable energy. What can we do today In Delaware, a “Sustainable Energy Utility” can meet energy needs, not by building new power plants but by weatherizing homes [and installing solar panels]…creating a market…for the verifiable energy savings they produce. Shifting from the Economics of Obesity to Sustainability February 22, 2010 Clean energy, green jobs The SEU is uniquely suited to create sustainable jobs.  Investments in onsite renewables can produce 2-5 times as many new, permanent jobs as those in conventional energy. Invest-ments in energy efficiency and conservation could generate 3-4 times as many new jobs. Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Delaware’s SEU Cited as a National Model

  9. & Smart ^ JOBS: The Clean Technology Advantage Permanent Jobs Created per Million US$ Invested COAL PLANTS 4 ENERGY EFFICIENCY & CONSERVATION12-15 Smart/Green Buildings 14.7 Air Insulation 12.0 RENEWABLE ENERGY 10-19 Solar Thermal 19.0 Solar Electric (PV) 15.7 Wind 11.9 Geothermal 10.5 INFORMATION & COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY 18-26 High-Speed Broadband 26.4 Smart Grid 21.7 Intelligent Transport 17.7 Sources: Erhardt-Martinez & Laitner, The Size of the U.S. Energy Efficiency Market. ACEEE. 2008. American Solar Energy Society (ASES). Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Economic Drivers for the 21st Century. 2007.Singh & Fehrs, The Work that Goes into Renewable Energy. REPP. 2001. London School of Economics (LSE) and the information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF). The UK’s Digital Road to Recovery. 2009. ICT job creation does not include ‘network effects.’

  10. 8 MOS. ~ $27 m SEUIMPACTS 10 YRS. > $130 m 5 YRS. > $85 m • ARRA FUNDS – Rebates & Loans • GREEN ENERGY SAVNGS BOND • RGGI CARBON AUCTION PROCEEDS • EERS – 15% Cut in Electric Sales by 2015 • RPS – 20% of Electric Sales from REs by 2019

  11. TOP DOWN TARGETS A FOREWORD FOR ACTION BOTTOM UP SOUSTAINABILITY

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