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Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane Analisi per aree di destinazione e per settore Alessandra Lanza – Chief Economist SACE S.p.A. Commercio, competitività e crescita Tendenze globali e prospettive per l’Italia Milano, 18 novembre 2005. Overview.

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Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane

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  1. Previsioni a 5 anni sui flussi delle esportazioni italiane Analisi per aree di destinazione e per settore Alessandra Lanza – Chief Economist SACE S.p.A. Commercio, competitività e crescita Tendenze globali e prospettive per l’Italia Milano, 18 novembre 2005

  2. Overview • Review of recent Italian trade performance and prospects based on a newly created sectoral-bilateral trade model for Italy, as embedded within the OEF Global Macroeconomic Model. • Overall growth in Italian exports has lagged behind growth in the main export markets; sales of consumer goods in mature markets have under performed. • Total exports have been weak, but competitiveness, performance and good prospects maintained in key growth markets, especially in the investment goods sector. • Scenario analysis: a pick-up in European growth is crucial to Italian prospects. Industry could also be helped by competitiveness improving measures.

  3. Export Performance % point % point 1 1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 Difference between average -4 -4 annual growth of exports and average annual growth of markets for goods and services 1996-2004 -5 -5 -6 -6 US JAP GER FRA ITA SPA NETH FIN SWE UK Source: OEF

  4. Real effective exchange rate 1995=100 1995=100 180 180 Defined in terms of unit wage 170 170 costs in manufacturing relative to rest of 160 160 Eurozone UK 150 150 140 140 Italy 130 130 Spain 120 120 110 110 Germany 100 100 90 90 France 80 80 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: EU

  5. Composition of exports (2004) Percentage of total value of goods exported Italy Germany UK Agriculture & food products 7.1 4.5 6.0 Consumer goods 27.7 15.9 14.3 Textiles and related products 14.4 3.3 3.6 Intermediate goods (inc. fuels) 24.2 24.5 33.6 Chemicals & pharmaceuticals 12.7 15.8 19.0 Investment goods 40.9 55.2 46.1 Mechanical engineering 21.4 19.3 17.7 Electrical engineering 8.9 15.1 14.8 Source: Eurostat (based on HS classification)

  6. To Poland € million € million 4000 1600 ToChina Germany 3500 1400 (LHS) € million € million 3000 1200 9000 2500 Italy 2500 1000 8000 (RHS) 2000 2000 800 7000 Italy 6000 1500 600 (RHS) Germany 1500 5000 (LHS) 1000 400 France 4000 500 200 1000 (RHS) 3000 France 0 0 (RHS) 2000 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 500 1000 0 0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: Eurostat Exports of mechanical engineering products

  7. Value of Italian Exportsby Sector % year % year 20 20 Forecast Goods 15 15 2006-09: 7.7% pa 10 10 5 5 Services 2006-09: 3.6% pa 0 0 -5 -5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: OEF/SACE

  8. % year % year 25 25 Forecast Intermediate 20 20 Investment 15 15 10 10 5 5 Consumer 0 0 -5 -5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: OEF/SACE Value of Italian Exportsby Sector

  9. % of goods exports % of goods exports 45 45 40 40 Investment 35 35 Consumer 30 30 25 25 20 20 Intermediate 15 15 10 10 5 5 Forecast 0 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: OEF/SACE Italian Exports by Sector

  10. 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Italian Exports of Goods by Continent % year % year 40 Asia-Pacific 2006-09: 10% Eastern Europe 2006-09: 9% 30 20 EU15 2006-09: 6.9% 10 0 North America 2006-09: 6.9% -10 -20 Latin America 2006-09:7.7% Forecast -30 2007 2008 2009 Source: OEF/SACE

  11. % of total % of total 18 18 Forecast 16 16 Germany 14 14 12 12 France 10 10 US 8 8 UK 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: OEF/SACE Italian Exports of Goods by Country

  12. % of total % of total % of total % of total 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.2 Forecast 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 Turkey Poland 1.6 1.6 China 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 Romania 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 Indonesia 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.8 Russia 0.6 0.6 India 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 Thailand 0.2 0.2 Forecast 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: OEF/SACE Italian Exports of Goods by Country

  13. US$ US$ US$ US$ 5000 5000 10000 10000 Forecast 4500 4500 9000 9000 4000 4000 8000 8000 Russia 3500 3500 7000 7000 Thailand Poland 3000 3000 6000 6000 China 2500 2500 5000 5000 2000 2000 4000 4000 Bulgaria Turkey Indonesia 1500 1500 3000 3000 1000 1000 2000 2000 India 500 500 1000 1000 Forecast 0 0 0 0 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Source: OEF/SACE Per Capita GDP

  14. % of total % year % of total % year 30 30 18 18 Forecast Forecast 25 25 16 16 US Germany 20 20 14 14 France 15 15 12 12 UK 10 10 10 10 France US 5 5 8 8 0 0 UK 6 6 -5 -5 4 4 -10 -10 Germany -15 -15 2 2 -20 -20 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: OEF/SACE Consumer Goods Exports by Country

  15. % of total % of total % year % year 1.3 1.3 30 30 Forecast Forecast 1.2 1.2 25 25 1.1 1.1 20 20 China 1.0 1.0 China 15 15 0.9 0.9 Thailand 0.8 0.8 10 10 0.7 0.7 5 5 0.6 0.6 0 0 Indonesia 0.5 0.5 Thailand 0.4 0.4 -5 -5 India 0.3 0.3 India -10 -10 0.2 0.2 Indonesia -15 -15 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -20 -20 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: OEF/SACE Consumer Goods Exports by Country

  16. % of total % of total % of total % of total 3.5 3.5 3.0 3.0 Forecast 3.0 3.0 2.5 2.5 Turkey 2.5 2.5 Poland China 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 Russia Indonesia Romania 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 India 0.5 0.5 Thailand 0.5 0.5 Forecast 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: OEF/SACE Investment Goods Exports by Country

  17. Investment Goods Exports by Country % year % year 25 25 US France 20 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 UK 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 Germany -15 -15 Forecast -20 -20 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: OEF/SACE

  18. % year % of total % year % of total 20 20 16 16 Forecast Forecast Germany 14 14 15 15 12 12 France France 10 10 10 10 UK US 5 5 8 8 Germany 6 6 0 0 UK 4 4 US -5 -5 2 2 -10 -10 0 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: OEF/SACE Intermediate Goods Exports by Country

  19. Scenario Analysis Impact of a rise in Eurozone private consumption of 1% of GDP Impact of a rise in Eurozone business investment of 1% of GDP Source: OEF/SACE

  20. Scenario Analysis Impact of reducing the rate of employers social security contributions by 5% points Impact of reducing the rate of employers social security contributions by 5% points Source: OEF/SACE

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