The fragmentation of European power

1. The fragmentation of European power José Ignacio Torreblanca Icaria / Política Exterior, 2011 The presentation ‘s objetive is to aid with the advertising and reading of the book ¨The fragmentation of European power¨ (Icaria / Política Exterior, julio de 2011). The presentation is available to all users under the premission of “Creative Commons” : “Attribution-NonCommercial (ccpl)¨ “The reproduction of this powerpoint is allowed only when it is not done so for commercial use. The original work may not be used when the final outcome is of commericla intent.” More information about the book: http://cort.as/11SR We would like to thank Nika Prislan with her help in the production of this presentation

2. In a world where China and other emerging countries are on the rise, the power and presence of the European Union is becoming marginal and its voice weaker. However, it cannot be said that the EU is weak nor that it lacks power. Today it is still the world’s biggest economy, the second biggest commercial block, the biggest aid donor and the world’s second biggest military power. Europe is powerful but introverted and therefore it exerts its power in a fragmented manner. Although the European project is in crisis, its decline is not inevitable. ¨This book analyzes the difficulties for Europe in acting united and being a relevant power in the world, but it does so from a conviction that the values Europe represents are not only the best ones but also the only ones that can guarantee peace and prosperity for the Europeans.¨ Javier Solana ¨This book offers an excellent exercise in summarizing and a reflection on the last decade in Europe, which involves one of the greatest displacements of world power that has ever been seen by current generations. The idea of Europe as a fragmented power perfectly captures the nature of its problems and limitations and is very useful for devising the possible paths that could be taken for the recovery of the European idea.¨ Lluís Bassets ¨José Ignacio Torreblanca, through his weekly articles in El País, has taught us how often, in the construction of Europe, the king walks naked. In ´The Fragmentation of European power,´ these flashes of virtue form a pool, and lose the attractiveness of a prose, the unexpected from the images or the daily apparel, curdling from a splendid image which matures and which, without doubt, forms what nowadays constitutes the biggest challenge in which us Spanish must confront at the beginning of the 21st century. ¨ Ana Palacio ¨’European power,’¨ whose fragmentation José Ignacio Torreblanca studies, never existed in reality. However, the deconstruction of this ghost reveals some blueprints in how to build a ‘European habitat’ in the real world’s ecosystem.¨ Carlos Alonso Zaldívar Thefragmentation of Europeanpower José Ignacio Torreblanca Icaria / Política Exterior, 2011 (232 pages 18 €)

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4. Where the idea to write this book occurred: two narratives of power Typical topics. Hard power: Skopje (Macedonia), February 2008 : The United States builds a large and ugly embassy. Link In the meantime, Spain and the rest of the Europeans were settling in precious mansions. Soft power: “Sense and sensibility”. Link Hard and soft power. Are Europeans really from Venus and Americans from Mars? Is Europe a ‘normative’ or ‘civil’ power? It´s time to overcome this discussion; Europe’s power is neither hard nor soft, it is fragmented.

5. Chapter 1: The end of the European dream The Asian century Worldmapper helps us to reconstruct the world according to different categories and magnitudes. If population size is taken into account, the world would appear as on the image above. China and India alone have 40% of the world’s population. Asia has 60%. Source: Worldmapper

6. A declining Europe In 1960, one out of every five habitants in the world was a European. However in 2005, Europe had already lost half of its population (in relative terms), leading to a situation where only one in every ten habitants in the world was European.. Source: Eurostat 2010

7. In 1960, one out of every 5 people was European, in 2050, only one in every 20 will be so According to current demographic projections, there will be less Europeans who will also be older. If one looks at Russia, it will age even faster. Due to its demographic problems it appears as a European power. On the other hand, the United States, which is capable of attracting and integrating immigrants, has the opposite demographic perdictions than Europe. Source: Eurostat 2008

8. Europe without Europeans In 2005 Europe had 11.2% of the world’s population, China 20.02%, India 17.4% and the United States 4.6%. The projections state that in 2050 Europe will have around 7.5% of the world’s population, China 15% and India 17.6%. These statistics should force us to face up to the challenge of how to ¨create a Europe without Europeans.¨ Europeans are old, expensive and declining in number while at the same time they do not indentify themselves with the European project sufficiently. Source: Eurostat 2010

9. From the following list of countries, which countries do you think are world powers? In 2005, the Bertelsmann Foundation asked citizens of different countries around the world which countries they considered world powers. In the fifth column one can see that only the Europeans considered themselves as a world power. Only 15% of Brazilians, 17% of Chinese and 7% of Indians saw Europe as such. Approximately 1 out of every 4 Americans and Russians saw it as a world power. The Germans, French and English did not have a corresponding perception. Source:BertlesmannStiftung

10. Which countries do you think will be world powers in 2010? Future perspectives do not appear promising either. The correspondents do not think that Europe will rise, but rather that it will stay in its actual zone, in other words, one of ‘irrelevance.’ Source:BertlesmannStiftung

11. ¿How do outsiders see our influence? A BBC survey demonstrates that foreigners see Europe’s influence, in general, as positive. In the United States, Brazil, China and Russia it is not seen as negative. Interestingly however, Turkey is one of the few countries where the EU’s influence is seen as negative. Source: BBC WorldServicePoll 2010 2010

12. Chapter 2: A small Asian peninsula The BRICs are already here…. According to Goldman Sachs predictions (2003), emerging economies will slowly overtake the G-6 (this excludes Canada). This ‘overtake’ will be completed around 2040, when the BRICs’ economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) will be larger than the G-6s’ (United States, Germany, United Kingdom, France and Italy). Source: Goldman Sachs 2003

13. Projections for the BRICs and the West (2003 and 2008) The most interesting fact about Goldman Sach’s predictions on China is that they have always been wrong and against China. Every prediction has been disapproved by reality, in other words, China has always grown more than had been expected. If in 2003 it was though that China would overtake the United States in 2041, this changed in 2008 when the predictions were lowered to 2027 and they continue to be lowered today. Source: Goldman Sachs 2009

14. Underestimating the BRICs The world in 2050: 2003 perspective (the graph on the left) and 2008 perspective (the graph on the right) The graph on the left shows the predictions made in 2003 on how large the world’s economies would be in 2005. The size of China’s economy was estimated (in 2003) that it would be $ 45,000 billion (in 2050). However in 2008 the estimates were changed to $70,000 billion (in 2050). Source: Goldman Sachs 2009

15. The struggle for energy resources in a multipolar world: the Chinese giant needs more energy Are there enough energy resources in the world to satisfy China? China is on the verge of overtaking the United States as the world’s biggest consumer of energy (graph on the left) and it is currently already the second biggest importer of oil in the world (graph on the right). From these facts rises its ‘African’ policies and the necessity to assure supply. Fuente: Financial Times, 20/01/2011

16. The 21st century will be a G-2 world The United States is living in a ¨Sputnik¨ moment: comparisons between the United States and China do not show a clear lead for the US while Obama is currently preparing the US for a post-American century. The European Union should also think about what its role in such a world. Source: TheGuardian, 20/04/2011

17. Chapter 3: Power fragments Europe continues to be an economic superpower… • E Even during the economic crisis, the EU-27 economies are larger than the American economy. And three times bigger than China’s. The rest of the BRICs trial far behind the EU. Economically, there is much more to Europe than it appears (data in billions of Euros). Source: IMF WorldEconomicDatabase

18. …and also a trade superpower As a trade partner, the Europeans lack rivals. Its market continues to be the most attractive in the world. Source: Eurostat 2010

19. The United States' hypertrophy: One area where Europe cannot compete with the United States is defense spending. The US represents almost half of the world’s spending on defense and the consequences of this might are enormous. Psychologically, it is said, ¨when one has a hammer, everything appears to you as a nail.¨ One can say something similar for the US. The US Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates, said that he would prefer more diplomats rather than soldiers (and allies more willing to cooperate).

20. Europe and the United States are more and more incompatible Define spending in the US and Europe in 2009 Is Robert Gates correct when he speaks of the ¨demilitarization of Europe¨? Are we really from Venus and the Americans from Mars? The war in Libya shows that the US was right to be frustrated with Europe. NATO is in an intensive care unit, but nobody dares to say it publicly. Source: EuropeanDefenceAgency 2009 y Financial Times, 16/11/2010

21. Europe is reducing its defense expenditure while the BRICs are increasing it The BRIC’s defense expenditure is increasing while the European's is decreasing. The UK-France agreement to share aircraft carriers has been described as a substitution of the ¨entente cordial¨ to ¨entente frugal.¨ Source: IISS, TheMilitary Balance 2010

22. Europe does not spend little: its military expenditure is high but it spends it badly Europe’s problems is not that it spends little, it´s that it spends ‘badly.’ The defense expenditure of the EU-27 represents about one ¼ of the world’s defense expenditure. Their total defense expenditure of around $200 billion reflects different priorities from the Cold War, their political necessities and national prejudices. The Treaty of Lisbon includes the legal mechanism to overcome this problem, but the political will is non-existent.

23. Some Europeans spend a lot, others few: the defense of the 27 is a thing for 2 Source: ECFR, Re-energisingEurope’s Security and DefencePolicy As important as quantity and quality is fairness. In the EU, two EU member states (France and the UK) spend almost 50% of defense spending in Europe. However, the politics of the common defense policy are governed by unanimity. It appears as though Europe is still not mature enough to change the rules of the game.

24. Many embassies, few results The EU’s foreign policy has three ‘Ds’ (defense, diplomacy and development). The diplomatic dimension consists of a large number of redundancies duplications. The European External Action Service (EEAS) created by the Lisbon Treaty, was meant to resolve these problems but reality has gone down a different path; we have now moved from the ¨troika¨ to ¨trio.¨ Source: Lamo, Emilio (ed), “Europa después de Europa”, Academia Europea de Ciencias, 2010, p.377.

25. A sufficient number of diplomats but very dispersed The power of the EU at the United Nations has been decreasing. More then 1,000 annual meetings between the Europeans to coordinate policies at the UN has lead to the EU voting almost always together. However, the success of this has been low due to the fact that the ¨eurosphere¨ is becoming weaker in the area of human rights. China, Russia and other emerging economies have become more successful in attracting African, Asian and Latin countries to adopt their positions. Resultados de las votaciones en materia de derechos humanos en ONU. Source: ECFR, The EU and humanrights at the UN, 2009 review

26. World superpower in development assistance… Europe continues to the world’s biggest aid donor. However, due to its network of dispersed relations and delegations around the world, especially in the ACP countries, the EU does not achieve its desired goal of getting these countries to vote with it in the UN. China has converted itself into Europe’s primary rival in the African sphere. Source: OECD 2009

27. …but with many “free-riders” Once again, the total spending in Europe on aid hides the realities of donor asymmetries. Official development assistance spending is above the UN target in few EU countries, while others look the other way (such as Italy, in particular). AOD como % de Producto Bruto Interno Source: Eurostat 2010

28. Bosnia’s aid map reveals some secrets A typical example of the fragmentation of European power is Bosnia. Bosnia’s donor map clearly shows the dispersion of aid. Bosnia is under ‘de facto’ European administration and it has received hundreds of millions of Euros in European aid. However, the image of the EU in Bosnia is neither good nor does the EU manage to persuade the officials in the country to adopt the reforms necessary to place Bosnia on a path towards EU integration.

29. Chapter 4: A lost decade The decade in which European ‘politics’ was meant to become reality has been the decade that the Europeans have begun to distance themselves from Europe. Attendance in the European Parliament’s elections have been particularly low, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, which has surprised a large part of the world. Source: Parlamento Europeo

30. The rise of xenophobia The rise of xenophobia in Europe questions its true values, both those projected inside the EU as well as those projected in its foreign policy. Source: FinancialTimes, 15/11/2010

31. Fear of immigrants There appears to be no relation between the number of immigrants and (the rise of) xenophobic parties. In Holland and France, where the percentage of immigrants is low, xenophobic parties have been on the rise. Source: Financial Times

32. Europa: the land of asylum and refuge The traditions of asylum between EU member states. Many lack an asylum culture. Source: Financial Times, 14/06/2011

33. Chapter 5: Swimming with sharks American ‘fetishism’: Thirteen EU member states believe that they have a ‘special relationship’ with the United States. The expectations in Europe of Bush’s departure and Obama’s arrival in the White House were high, however they did not change the ‘icy’ relationship. Source: ECFR, Towards a post-American Europe

34. From 20.000 (2006) to 40.000 soldiers (2011). However, the increase in European troops has not convinced the US. In Afghanistan, European leaders irritate the United States because of their unavailability in combat and due to their reluctance to increase contingents. Furthermore, the Europeans appear to alienate their electorates, which appear to be more or less happy with the deployment in Afghanistan. Source: ISAF, Junio 2011

35. China divides us: four different positions on trade and human rights The relationship each EU member state has with China is very different although they can be divided into four groups depending on how soft or tough they are in their relationship with China on human rights and trade issues. Source: ECFR, A PowerAudit of EU-China relations

36. And Russia divides us even more… Frosty pragmatists The new Cold-Warriors Source: Popescu & Leonard, Eu-RussiaPowerAudit

37. Chapter 6: Nobody loves me European values are not majoritarian European’s record on the promotion of democracy and human rights has been questionable. Democracies do not constitute the majority in the world nor do states have similar practices of promoting democracies. Brazil, India, South Africa, and Turkey, for example, do not always vote with Europe. Source: FreedomHouse 2010

38. At the UN, the EU is becoming more isolated EU member states insist that the UN is fundamental in their vision of a international system and universal human rights, but the organization is becoming more dominated by China, Russia and their allies. The active diplomacy by Beijing and Moscow to find allies for their ‘axis of sovereignty’ demands a new approach by the Europeans to counter it. Source: ECFR, The EU and humanrights at the UN: 2010 review y A Global ForceforHumanRights?

39. Too many Europeans, too little Europe ¨The EU must reflect on the complexity and messiness of its own internal economic governance that inter alia complicates effective external action. The Eurogroup-Ecofin duality or rivalry not only affects the internal system of decision-making, but also muddies the external representation of the EU and the euro-zone..¨ - Pedro Solbes Source: Solbes, Pedro in: ChallengesforEuropeanForeignpolicy in 2011, FRIDE

40. Chapter 7: The new kidsonthe block Source: ECFR, New WorldOrder: The balance fosoftpower and therise of HerbivorousPower India, South Africa, Russia and Brazil are natural leaders in theirregions.

41. India: isanybodythere? The Europeans and the Indians do not understand each other: in India there are more people who have an ‘unfavorable’ opinion about the EU than ‘favorable.’ A surprising fact, considering the fact that both are democracies that are market-orientated. Source: PewResearch Center 2010

42. The percentage of people who have a favorable opinion about the EU opinion Brazil Brazilcouldbethe new ‘energygiant’ Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, Financial Times 15/03/2011

43. Turkey is walking away… The percentage of the Turkish population that wants their country to join the EU has been decreasing since the adhesion negotiations began. The EU’s attractiveness is weakening. Source: TransatlanticTrends 2010

44. Chapter 8: The other’s weaknesses The Europeans are still 30 times richer than the Indians, 10 times richer than the Chinese and 4 times richer than the Russians. According to the World Bank GDP per capita in 2009 for India was: $1,192, China: $3,744, Brazil: $8,230, Russia: $8,684, la EU: $32, 845 and the US: $45,989. Source: World Bank 2010 (currentdollars)

45. Be careful with ‘the bubbles’: The BRICs also have their imbalances. Inflation was quite high in Russia and India in 2010 as well as in Brazil. Source: WSJ, Feelingtheheat

46. China will be old before becoming rich China ‘single child’ policy is already having implications on its demographics Source: Land of therising son

47. China has 110 proposed reactors in the works. Will they be reliable? Source: Financial Times

48. Russia’s demographics • - In 1993, Russia’s population was 148.6 millions. • - In 2010 it was 141.9 millions. • - In 17 years Russia lost almost 7 millions people. • The World Health Organization stated in 2008 that life expectancy in Russia for children aged 15 was less than in Cambodia, Eritrea and Haiti. • Life expectancy in Spain is 14 years higher than in Russia. Source: Prospect Magazine y ForeignAffairs, TheDemographicFuture

49. More cell phones than toilets and a lot of corruption in India According to a UN study, only 366 million people had access to toilets and running water in India while 545 million have a cell phone. The BRICs have high inequality rates and corruption is extended to large parts of the society. The number of Russia millionaires has multiplied by 21, and by 6 in India. Source: UN Report 2010 y Financial Times, 21/03/2011

50. Brazil; an economy with weaknesses Brazil’s economic growth has been high, but its industry is weak in the face of Chinese imports of manufactured goods and electronics. The Brazilian state is also ineffective and has a large corruption problem. The Doing Business’ index places Brazil on the 172 position, under Russia (123 position) and China (79 position).