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Beyond the PROFET

Beyond the PROFET. Juergen Schulze MET Norway. Who's MET Norway? . PROFET ?. PROFF Field Editor. Prior to PROFET. Text forecast. 50000 Pages of Text forecasts a year 5-20 people 24/7. TV forecast. Edited Meteogram. Offshore forecast Subjective Point forecasts.

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Beyond the PROFET

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  1. Beyond the PROFET Juergen Schulze MET Norway

  2. Who's MET Norway?

  3. PROFET ?

  4. PROFF Field Editor

  5. Prior to PROFET

  6. Text forecast • 50000 Pages of Text forecasts a year • 5-20 people 24/7

  7. TV forecast

  8. Edited Meteogram • Offshore forecast • Subjective Point forecasts

  9. Auto Meteogram

  10. ICAO Products

  11. And then came yr.no

  12. yr.no • Launched in September 2007 • Free data policy • 5th biggest weather website on the planet • Interpolation on demand • 9 mio places registered • Top=6.9 mio unique users/week • Point forecasts obsolete

  13. YR Heatmap

  14. PROFET … the intentions Bringing the forecaster into the production chain

  15. More intentions Creating products from a single source

  16. Even more intentions Forecast consistency by using a single source

  17. How PROFET works • Choosing the “correct” model • Fixing systematic errors in the model fields

  18. Usage – Intended • Intention to point out dangerous errors

  19. Usage – Intended … and real • Intention to point out dangerous errors • Used to adapt the model output to fit the forecasters opinion

  20. Usage - frequency

  21. VERIFICATION

  22. Equitable Threat Score (ETS) • Threat Score: TS= a / ( a + b + c ) • Hits expected by chance: E = (a+b) ( a+c ) / n • ETS = ( a – E ) / ( a + b +c – E )

  23. Verification: Precipitation 1h precipitation / summer 24h precipitation / summer APPROVED DATASET / DEFAULT MODEL

  24. Precipitation +30h forecast BIAS [mm / 24h ] SUMMER WINTER ALL CASES DEFAULT MODEL 0.8 0.5 APPROVED DATASET 0.7 0.7 EDITED CASES DEFAULT MODEL 4.2 0.8 APPROVED DATASET 3.7 1.7 Verification Systematic error

  25. Verification: comments • Edited forecasts are more pessimistic than the model • Forecasters are able to identify situations where the model has considerable errors, but editing the fields is not the optimal way to distribute this knowledge • Situation has changed since the beginning. The default model has been improved by postprocessing the dataset

  26. And the production chain? More and more statistical and parametrisation fixes

  27. Temperature? • High resolution height model (50m horizontal) • Inhomogeneous • Deep valleys

  28. Temperature? • High resolution height model (50m horizontal) • Inhomogeneous • Deep valleys • Editing forbidden

  29. Precipitation • Use of prob forecasts by median • Editing is not WYSIWYG • Post processing is time cost

  30. Wind • Statistical corrections for mountains and coastlines

  31. Chosing the model ? Just two times a day, night shift has not the capacity

  32. Single point of production? • Auto text forecasts – only at high sea. • Norway is quite Inhomogeneous – auto text did not succeed over land

  33. Consistency then? • Still TV forecast produced by table • ICAO Products made by hand • Text forecasts still 50K pages

  34. Consistency - yr.no/kart vs yr.no

  35. Consistency - yr.no/kart vs yr.no

  36. Consistency - yr.no/kart vs yr.no

  37. Why stopping right now? • New Supercomputer – New Model • AROME 2.5 km High res model over Norway • Updates 6 or 8 times a day • High res postprocess chains – time intensive with editing

  38. The final reason • Moving PROFET to AROME would cost a recognizable amount of infrastructural change – due to the implementation of NetCDF as the new grid format

  39. What next? The Forecaster is off the production chain again

  40. Meteorologen live • Making direct comments on the situation • Model/run/grid independent • Issuing geolocalised warnings, alerts, etc directly into the final product • Maximum latency of 10 minutes

  41. Implementation • Phase 0: Soon • Using Common Technology for communication (Twitter/Blog) • Phase 1: September 2013 • Adapting existing infrastructure to a set of the new requirements • Phase 2: Not yet set • Complete new infrastructure with a postGIS database engine for the geolocalisation

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