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Global Warming

Global Warming. What is Global Warming?. Global warming is the gradual warming of the earth due to the "greenhouse effect".

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Global Warming

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  1. Global Warming Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  2. What is Global Warming? Global warming is the gradual warming of the earth due to the "greenhouse effect". Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  3. Global warming refers to an average increase in the Earth's temperature, which in turn causes changes in climate. A warmer Earth may lead to changes in rainfall patterns, a rise in sea level, and a wide range of impacts on plants, wildlife, and humans. Greenhouse gases make the Earth warmer by trapping energy inside the atmosphere. Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  4. The Greenhouse Effect Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007 Met Office Hadley Centre

  5. An increase in global temperatures can in turn cause other changes, including a rising sea level and changes in the amount and pattern of precipitation. These changes may increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as : • floods, • droughts, • heat waves, • hurricanes, and • tornados. Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  6. Greenhouse gases exist in Nature: • H2O, CO2, CH4, . . . • Humans add more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere upsetting the balance. • These gases warm the Earth and are the contributing factor to the dramatic climate change we have been observing. Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  7. The Land and Oceans have warmed Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  8. Precipitation patterns have changed Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  9. El Niño years La Niña years The frequency, persistence and magnitude of El-Nino events have increased in the last 20 years The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and droughts throughout the tropics and subtropics Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  10. Weather-related economic damages have increased Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  11. Global mean surface temperature is projected to increase during the 21st century Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  12. Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1oC Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  13. Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase Projected changes during the 21st century Examples of impacts • Higher maximum temperatures; more hot days and heatwavesover nearly all land areas (very likely) • Higher minimum temperatures; fewer cold daysfrost days and cold spells over nearly all land areas (very likely) • more intense precipitation events over many areas (very likely) • increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors and associated risk of drought (likely) • increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensity, mean and peak precipitation intensities (likely) • Increased mortality in old people in urban areas • Damage to crops • Heat stress on livestock • Extended range of pests and diseases • Loss of some crop/fruit • Land slides, mudslides, damage to property and increased insurance costs • Reduced rangeland productivity, increased wildfires, decreased hydropower • Damage to various ecological and socioeconomic systems Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  14. Adverse Impacts for Africa Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  15. Effect on human health…Reduced winter mortality in mid- and high-latitudes Increased incidence of heat stress mortality, and the number of people exposed to vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue and water-borne diseases such as cholera, especially in the tropics and sub-tropics Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  16. Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change • Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought prone and a large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors • Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity and access to knowledge • Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries, exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources. Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  17. Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  18. IPCC (2001) estimates a 1.4-5.8 oC increase High Central estimate = 2.5 oC (plus increased variability) Low Band of historical climatic variability 20 This presents a rate-of-change problem for many natural systems/processes Average Global Temperature (OC) 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 1860 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  19. Modulating influences Extreme weather- related (floods, storms, etc.) health effects Microbial changes: Contamination paths Climate Climate Contamination Change Change Water and food-borne pathways diseases Transmission Transmission dynamics Vector - - borne and dynamics rodent - - borne diseases Changes in agro-ecosystems, hydrology Effects of food and water shortages Mental, nutritional, infectious-disease and other effects Socioeconomic and demographic disruption Health Effects Health effects Temperature-related Temperature - related illness and death illness and death Extreme weather - related health effects Human exposures Air pollution Air pollution-related - related health effects health effects Regional weather Regional weather Water and food - borne changes changes diseases • • Heat waves Heat waves Vector borne and • • Extreme weather Extreme weather rodent borne diseases • • Temperature Temperature • • Precipitation • Sea-level rise Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  20. Warming will lead to major changes in water availability across the globe, with consequences for droughts and floods Change in the 2050s, based on IPCC Scenario A1 Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007 Source: Arnell (2004)

  21. Global emissions are forecast to grow from all sources transport & power generation growing fastest +2.1% 2002 actual emissions 2030 projected emissions annual average forecast % growth in emissions to 2030 +2.1% +1.2% +1.1% +0.7% Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007 Source: International Energy Agency, US Environmental Protection Agency, CO2 equivalent

  22. Larger developing countries account for much of the forecast rise in emissions 145% 39% Projected emissions, 2025 2002 emissions 11% Energy Emissions only Gt CO2 95% 32% 78% 5% 63% 99% Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT Energy Information Administration Reference Scenario, Energy emissions only Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  23. To stabilise at below 550 ppm, emissions must start to fall soon & developing countries must be part of the solution Business as usual (A2) Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007 Source IPPC

  24. Rapid rise in the stock of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere post 1850: Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007 Source: IPCC TAR (slide taken from Hadley Centre)

  25. The Water Cycle and Climate As the Earth has warmed, what has happened to Earth’s water resources ? Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  26. Changes in Precipitation More Rain Less Rain Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  27. Precipitation Intensity Increases • More days with precipitation • More frequent and intense precipitation • Precipitation increases are due to the strong events Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  28. VECTOR-BORNE DISEASE Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  29. Estimated population at risk of dengue fever under “standard” climate change scenario: 1990, 2085 1990 2085 . Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007 Source. Hales S et al. Lancet (online) 6 August 2002. http://image.thelancet.com/extras/01art11175web.pdf

  30. Need to convert estimates of regional food yields into estimates of changes in numbers of malnourished people Climate change impacts on rain-fed cereal production, 2080 (IIASA: Fischer et al, 2001) Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  31. Grain Production Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

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  34. What can we do?Change how we live:reduce energy use emphasize sustainability Change our technology:improve energy use efficiency Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  35. A Climate Solution:Cogeneration Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007 Source: International Cogeneration Alliance, 1996.

  36. $70 $26 Incandescent CFL A Climate Solution:Compact Fluorescent Lamps CO2 Emissions and Lifecycle Costs to produce 1500 lumens for 8,000 hours technology W lumens/W hours kWh kg-CO2/kWh $/kWh kg-CO2 Energy Cost bulb life bulb cost LCC Incandescent 100 15 8000 800 0.7 0.08 560 $64 1000 hrs $0.75 $70 CFL 25 60 8000 200 0.7 0.08 140 $16 8000 hrs $10 $26 The kg-CO2/kWh figure is based on a typical OECD carbon intensity, reflecting a mix of coal, oil gas, hydro, nuclear, etc. Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  37. Five “Megatrends” in our energy system Oil Biomass Gas Coal Nuclear Renewables Primary Energy Power Generation Direct combustion Industry and Manufacturing Liquids Energy Energy Energy Final Energy Mobility Buildings Consumer Choices Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  38. Solutions Personal & Family: Each of us must make energy saving changes in our lives, and convince our family and friends to do the same, so each of us takes personal responsibility for reducing our own CO2 footprint on the planet. How can we expect others to change, if we don't follow our own advice. We have an opportunity to lead by example. Simple steps, like: • lowering our thermostats in winter, and raising them in summer; • replacing regular light bulbs with compact florescent bulbs; • using less hot water; • insulating your home; • turning off (and unplugging) electric devices not in use; • walking, biking, carpooling or taking public transportation when possible; • buying products that use less packaging material; • buy locally grown foods and shop at your local farmer's market; • buy organic foods; • keeping the air in your automobile's tires inflated and the engine well maintained; and, of course, recycling, can make a significant difference. Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  39. We can go even further than that. When we need to replace an appliance - choose one with an energy star label. When it comes time to buy a new car, look at buying a hybrid (or one that runs on alternative fuels, like E85). If it's available in your area, switch to green power, that uses renewable resources like solar and wind to provide electricity to your home - or if you can afford it, install your own solar panels on your home. Whenever you get a chance - plant a tree. • On a personal level, we can direct our monetary investments to companies that are environmental friendly and/or into companies, programs and products that are trying to address environmental/climate issues. Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  40. The second level - Local & regional: • We need to take what we do at home out into our community. Take these same energy saving tools to work or school. Not only inform and educate your coworkers about the climate crisis, and the things they can do o help, but encourage change in the workplace or school itself. • Attend city council meeting, and write to the mayor and council members voicing your concerns and encouraging the switch to renewable energy. Work to break down the regulatory barriers that are preventing a wider transition to energy sources like solar, wind and biomass.Make your voice heard wherever you go. Bring it up in any clubs, groups and organizations you may belong to. Encourage them to adopt it as a key issue. • If you lead any children's groups (Scouts, YMCA, etc.) incorporate what you have learned in your activities and lessons. make sure the next generation will carry on with this fight. Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  41. The third level - National-Political: • Keep yourself informed and educated about the issues and bills/resolutions that are being voted on so that you can speak or write intelligently about the subject. When you write or call, be concise. • Do not buy into the myth and distraction of hydrogen technology, which will not be available, cost-effective or viable for decades, and point out the technology that is available, and cost effective, now: hybrid engines, solar, wind, etc. • We must convince government to encourage trade agreements that allow hybrid cars to be cost effective. The technology is already there to put a hybrid in any size vehicle (Toyota has small, and mid-size cars as well as SUVs that operate with hybrid technology). • We have to get our politicians to lead the oil industry into redefining itself. To help it move from "The Oil Industry" to "The Energy Industry". Our politicians have to guide them to develop alternatives to oil. We must guide our politicians to lead the oil industry into the future. Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  42. The fourth level - International: Common Sense Solutions • Fuel-efficient vehicles. Renewable energy. Protecting threatened forests. These common sense solutions won't only reduce global warming, many will save us money and create new business opportunities. • Best of all, these solutions exist now. We just need to insist that business and government take the necessary steps to make them available and affordable. Then we have to let consumers know what to do and provide incentives to help all of us make better choices. This is the fight we can only begin to win by changing our own country first. We must get our politicians to recognize the problem and its significant consequences, work to change them, and then put pressure on the rest of the world to do the same. Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  43. We Must Act Now • The scientific consensus is in. Our planet is warming, and we are helping make it happen by adding more heat-trapping gases, primarily carbon dioxide (CO2), to the atmosphere. The burning of fossil fuel (oil, coal, and natural gas) alone accounts for about 75 percent of annual CO2 emissions from human activities. • Deforestation—the cutting and burning of forests that trap and store carbon—accounts for about another 20 percent. • Procrastination is not an option. Scientists agree that if we wait 10, 20, or 50 years, the problem will be much more difficult to address and the consequences for us will be that much more serious. Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  44. Best Personal Solution • When you buy your next car, look for the one with the best fuel economy in its class. The vehicle you drive has the single largest impact on climate change of any action you take. For every 10 litres of petrol you burn, 5 litres of heat-trapping CO2 is released into the atmosphere. And better mileage not only reduces global warming, but also will save you thousands of rands at the pump over the life of the vehicle. • Check the fuel economy sticker on the cars you're considering and look for new technologies such as hybrid engines. Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  45. As Al Gore pointed out - even initially modest targets opens up new possibilities. This occurred when countries worldwide phased out the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) that were destroying the stratospheric ozone layer that protects us from harmful ultraviolet radiation. • At first political leaders and leaders of affected businesses said this was impossible, that alternatives were unavailable or prohibitively costly. • But even though the scientific data was still in flux, and CFCs had wide uses in electronics, refrigeration, plastics, telecommunications, aerospace, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture, 24 nations, including the U.S., committed to the specific reduction standards of the 1987 Montreal Protocol. • Businesses responded with major innovation, soon surpassing the standards. Northern Telecom developed and licensed new ways to clean electronic circuit boards. Greenpeace and a former East German company developed CFC-free refrigerators, which were sold throughout Europe and which German and Swiss aid programs promoted in China and India.  • The US food packaging industry stopped using CFCs in creating Styrofoam packaging, and China replaced their Styrofoam with a biodegradable product made from grass and straw. By a few years later, a series of amendments raised the standards still further and the bulk of the world’s nations had signed on. Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  46. Possible Scenarios for Programming FACTUAL: Documentary strands about sustainability (lifestyles: food, packaging, driving, eating, wearing) and sustainable energy use/ alternative energy sources. Can also license the seminal documentary on global warming “An Inconvenient Truth” presented by Al Gore. DRAMA: Characters who are passionate about these causes can be integrated into different dramas. Storylines revolving around the impact of global warming for different families in different class bands, how does the health impact devastate families. CHILDREN: Program highlighting children’s activism around recycling, children as eco-warriors, educating children about global warming as a science project. Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  47. Possible Scenarios for Programming cont’d ENTERTAINMENT: Eco-friendly design program. Permaculture lifestyle. Making ecology and sustainability relevant and trendy. REVERSIONING: Reversion archive programs that have spoken to this. Reversion international programs that have dealt with global warming an climate change. COMMISSIONING AND SPECIAL PROJECTS Commissioned companies can use this presentation to come up with an appropriate campaign. These are just general suggestions and are not meant to be prescriptive. Please read through the solutions and think of appropriate ways to integrate them into your programming. Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  48. The End • It’s tempting to dismiss these initiatives as insignificant, given the magnitude of the challenge. • Cuts in greenhouse emissions need to be far more drastic than Kyoto’s limited reach of reducing emissions to 7% below the 1990 levels by 2012. • But some other cities and businesses offer a path forward, a way to act despite the efforts of denialists. • Each city inspires the next. • So does each business. The more concrete the solutions, the less credible the arguments that nothing can be done. Each initiative provides a model for others to follow. Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  49. Sources and References • Sources and references have been extracted from the following websites: • www.ipcc.ch/present/cop7/part2 • www.earthinstitute.columbia.edu/grocc/conferences/2005/spring • nature.ca/sila/edu/edu_e.cfm • www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/randall.m.dole • ku-prism.org/update/SummerSeminar/DrBraaten.html • www.unep-wcmc.org/conventions/ACOPS/presentations/Griggs • www.unido.org/file-storage/download?file_id=12853 • www.du.edu/enviro/du32800/index.htm • www.searo.who.int/LinkFiles/Children's_environmental_health_climate-change • 2050.nies.go.jp/200606workshop/presentations/6-2Warrilow.pdf • www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/215/28/Economics_of_Climate_Change_Slide_Pack.ppt • www.eskom.co.za/content/Laurent_Corbier.ppt • neptune.gsfc.nasa.gov/ppt/Climate_Change_Ecosystems_200612 • en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming - 131k - 3 Mar 2007 • www.epa.gov/climatechange/ - 16k • www.climatecrisis.net/ - 5k – Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub. Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

  50. Compiled for the office of the GM: Content Hub 5th March 2007

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