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Remarks on a Political Modeling Strategy for Social Systems

Remarks on a Political Modeling Strategy for Social Systems. Detlef Sprinz PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. Overview. Goals Options Conclusions. Goals. Provide a (Set of) Tool(s) to provide a framework for the analysis of non-trivial decisions among multiple actors

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Remarks on a Political Modeling Strategy for Social Systems

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  1. Remarks on a Political Modeling Strategy for Social Systems Detlef Sprinz PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

  2. Overview • Goals • Options • Conclusions

  3. Goals • Provide a (Set of) Tool(s) to • provide a framework for the analysis of non-trivial decisions • among multiple actors • on various levels of analysis or aggregation • to replicate past decisions and • explore the likely outcomes of major decisions for the future

  4. Options • Basic Options • case study • statistical analysis • (cooperative and non-cooperative) game theory • optimization tools (incl. CBA) • simulation • form of quasi-experimentation

  5. Options • Example: Political Simulation Model of Bueno de Mesquita • Assumptions • Rationality of Actors • competing actors • maximize expected utility under limited time horizon • “voting” on issues • no level of analysis problem • Ability to Provide Input Data

  6. Options • Goal: Decision-Making • offers and counteroffers • “produce” winning coalitions (if possible) or “fabricate” majorities • Outcome of Vote • determined by • median voter theorem • veto player • fall back: status quo

  7. Options • Inputs by Player • general power or influence (resources) of each actor • stated policy position • salience (priority) of each actors • Simulation Terminates When • expected benefits of further negotiations < expected benefits of further negotiations • discounting the outcomes over time

  8. Options • Advantage of BdM Policy Forecaster • utilizes case experience similar to case study analyst in a fully structured way • provides forecasts and simple dynamic of decision-Making • rigorous tool rather than guesstimate • accuracy is imperfect (ca. 90% correct predictions) • permits sensitivity analyses

  9. Options • Some Challenges & Limitations • lack of simultaneously including related agenda items (problem of uni-dimensional political space) • high-quality data inputs • not easily available even for many European countries

  10. Options • How to Use it for Social Systems I • context of climate change • three rounds of simulations • Germany • European Union • global • replications of some decisions where we know the outcome • predictions about some decisions where we do not yet know the outcome (e.g., post-Kyoto)

  11. Options • How to Use it for Social Systems II • beyond climate change • in context of European Climate Forum • with select target groups (self-selected) • replication • short-term forecasting (easy “verification”) & learning • longer-term forecasts

  12. Conclusions • A Proposed Sequence of Activities • build a backbone at PIK incl. endowment • review other options in the family of simulation models • outreach to a limited set of relevant inter/national institutions • engage a small set of internationally renowned scholars • Bueno de Mesquita, Jacobson et al. • Underdal, CICERO et al.

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