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Hidetoshi Otono on be half of ATLAS and CMS collaboration. Prospects of Higgs and SM measurements at HL-LHC. 2. Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders. Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University). Toward HL-LHC (2025-2035). N ew interaction region layout C rab cavity. So far
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Hidetoshi Otono on be half of ATLAS and CMS collaboration Prospects of Higgs and SM measurements at HL-LHC
2 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) Toward HL-LHC (2025-2035) New interaction region layout Crab cavity • So far • √s = 7-8 TeV • Bunch spacing = 50 ns • Luminosity: L ~ 6 x 1033 cm-2s-1 • Pileup μ ~ 40 • Keep detector performance at the same level as we have today √s =14 TeV LHC injector upgrade √s =13 TeV Bunch spacing = 25ns • L ~ 1.6 x 1034 cm-2s-1 L ~ 2x 1034 cm-2s-1 L ~ 5x 1034 cm-2s-1 • μ ~ 40 μ ~ 60 μ~ 140
3 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) CMS upgrade • LS1 • Complete Muon coverage (ME,RE4) • Improve muon operation, DT electronics • Replace HCAL photo-detectors in Forward (new PMTs) and Outer (HPD→SiPMs) • DAQ1→DAQ2 • LS2 • New Pixel detector • HCAL electronics • L1-Trigger upgrade • GEMs for forward muon det. under review • Preparatory work during LS1 • New beam pipe for pixel upgrade • Install test slices of pixel, HCAL, L1-trigger • Install ECAL optical splitters for L1-trigger • LS3 • Tracker replacement, L1 Track-Trigger • Forward: calorimetry, muons and tracking • High precision timing for PU mitigation • Further Trigger upgrade • Further DAQ upgrade 40% more HZZ4μ
4 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) ATLAS upgrade • LS1 • New Al beam pipe • New insertable pixel b-layer and pixel services • Complete installation of EE muon chambers • New evaporative cooling plant • Consolidation of detector services • Specific neutron shielding • Upgrade magnet cryogenics • LS2 • New Small Wheel (nSW) for the forward muon Spectrometer • High Precision Calorimeter L1-Trigger • Fast TracKing (FTK) for L2-trigger • Topological L1-trigger processors • New forward diffractive physics detectors (AFP) • LS3 • Completely new tracking detector • Calorimeter electronics upgrades • Upgrade part of the muon system • Possible L1-trigger track trigger • Possible changes to the forward calorimeters
5 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) Simulation for HL-LHC • ATLAS • Full G4 simulation with <μ> = 140 • The new tracker is embedded in the Run 1 calorimeter and muon spectrometer • Pile-up effect is also considered • Detector performances for each object are derived and parameterized • then, applied to the generator-level MC sample for this study • Some times worse than today • CMS • Assume detector upgrades keep current performance • Scale current analysis • Results supportedbydedicatedfullsimulation
6 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) Systematics uncertainties • ATLAS • Basically the same as Run 1. • Uncertainties from data-driven estimates are scaled with √(integ. lumi.) • w/ & w/o theory uncertainties • CMS • Scenario 1: • the same systematics as Run 1 • w/ & w/o theory uncertainties • Scenario 2: • experimental systematics scaled by √(integ. lumi.) • theory systematics reduced by 50% These values are mainly compared in this talk.
7 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) Photon • ATLAS • Making use of the latest 2012 optimization • Tight identification • Calorimeter-based isolation • Efficiency • higgs→γγfrom gluon-gluon fusion with <μ>=80 • Assuming improved algorithm keep this efficiency at <μ>=140 • Fake photon • Di-jet samples with <μ>=80 • Photons from neutral meson decays, e.g. π0 • Fake photonpT/ True jet pT~ 0.75 on average
8 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) Electron • ATLAS • Making use of the cut-based approach 2012 optimization(loose/tight) • Assumption the current performance will be maintained • A better use of detector input • The change from a cut-based approach to MVA PID • Efficiency • Z→eesample • Loose : 97% at plateau • Tight : 85% at plateau • Fake electron • Pythia8 di-jet sample • Loose : 6% at pT = 20 GeV • Tight : 0.2% at pT = 20 GeV • Efake/ True jet E ~ 0.4 • Energy resolution • Also based on current detector performance • Expected not to be affected by pileup condition
9 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) Muon • ATLAS • Muon system • using Run 1 MS setup, which assumed to be valid after PhaseⅡ • Inner TracKer • taken from a parameterization of the results published in the LoI • CMS • Assumption for forward muon + tracking efficiency and resolution • DelphesPhaseⅠconfiguration is validated by CMS PhaseⅠFullSim
10 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) Jet • ATLAS • Extrapolating the jet performance obtained in Pythiadijet MC • <μ>= 0 - 40, dedicated pile-up offset and JES were derived and applied. • Jet energy resolution • Event-by-event pile-up subtraction based on the jet areas methods • Noise term in has μ dependence • Jet pT threshold • Estimated based on the rate of pile-up jets • Determined such that there is less than 1 additional jet in 10% or 1% of the events • Jet reconstruction efficiency • Extrapolating the performance with μ=20 - 40 for μ=140
11 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) ETmiss • ATLAS • ΣETparameterization making use of Z’→ttbarwith μ=140 • Physics process dependence • Minimum-bias sample • Pile-up noise threshold • μ=100, 200 • ETmissresolution • Physics process dependence • Di-jet and minimum-bias sample • Variation in the pile-up noise threshold • assume a fixed 5 GeV uncertainty • Validation with dijetsample • Good agreement can be seen • Red : Reconstructed ETmiss • Blue : Parameterized ETmiss
12 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) Tau identification • ATLAS • Leptonic decay • Lepton selection in tau decay is based on the parameterization so far • TheETmiss performance is discussed later • Hadronic decay • Efficiency is assumed to remain stable, once jet calibration weights and noise term values are properly taken into account. • Resolution is also rather unchanged, once appropriate pileup subtraction and noise levels at cluster level are used.
13 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) b-tagging • ATLAS • The multivariate tagger MV1 is parameterizedwith ttbar with μ=140 • impact parameter based algorithm • secondary vertex based algorithm • Performance is degrade due to • primary vertex misidentification • contamination from pile-up tracks • increase of fake tracks
14 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) higgs→γγ 0 jet ATL-PHYS-PUB-2014-012 CMS-NOTE-2013-002 Currently ~25% uncertaintyon μ • CMS expects 8% uncertainty as scenario 1. • ATLAS expects 13% uncertainty • Selection for two photons • one photon with pT> 40 GeV and the other with pT > 30 GeV • both photons with |η| < 2.37 outside the transition region • two isolated photons • Measurement of each Higgs production can be possible 1 jet 2 jet
15 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) higgs → γγ ATL-PHYS-PUB-2014-012 CMS-NOTE-2013-002 • tth: one of the best channel • ~20% precision can be achieved • good sensitivity along with higgs→ZZ • unc. for stat. and sys. are comparable at 3000 fb-1 • Wh/Zhand VBF • could be accessible (higgs→bband higgs→WWare better?) • statistics limits the sensitivity even at 3000 fb-1 • ggF • at 300 fb-1, theoretical uncertainty already dominates tth-1ℓ tth-2ℓ
16 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) higgs → ZZ → 4ℓ (ℓ = e, μ) ATL-PHYS-PUB-2013-014 CMS-NOTE-2013-002 Currently ~25% uncertainty on μ • CMS expects 7% uncertainty as scenario 1 • ATLAS expects 10 % uncertainty • 3000 fb-1 events allow the study of all the higgs production modes separately. • Selection for 4 leptons • two pairs of same-flavor and opposite sign leptons • pT threshold 20, 15, 10 and 6 GeV (7 GeV for electrons) • 50 -115 GeV for the mass of dilepton pair with mass closer to that of the Z boson • 12 -115 GeV for the mass of the other pair • 80% efficiency for lepton isolation is assumed for leptons with pT < 20 GeV • e.g. 95% at pT ~ 25 GeV and 90% at pT~ 10 GeV for Run 1 performance. • Additional selection: • if ( at least 1 b-jet + 1 lepton or at least 4 jets ) then, tth • else if( 2 leptons with MZ or 1 lepton with pT> 15GeV) then, Wh/Zh • else if ( at least 2 jets with Δη > 3 and mjj > 350 GeV) then, VBF • else then, ggF
17 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) higgs→ZZ →4ℓ (ℓ = e, μ) ATL-PHYS-PUB-2013-014 CMS-NOTE-2013-002 • tth Almost comparable to higgs→γγ • limited by statistical uncertainty even for 3000 fb-1 • VBF • limited by systematic uncertainty at 3000 fb-1 • Wh/Zh • limited by statistical uncertainty even for 3000 fb-1 • ggF Almost comparable to higgs→γγ • limited by theory uncertainty even for 300 fb-1
18 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) higgs→ ZZ → 4ℓ (ℓ = e,μ) • CMS and ATLAS have investigated presence of tensor structure in vertex • Strongly favor JP=0+ SM quantum numbers • General amplitude of interaction between a spin-0 boson and two spin-1 gauge bosons: CP-even : SM Higgs CP-even : SM Higgs + BSM CP-odd : BSMboson • Relative coupling strength to BSM • Current limit for CP-odd BSM boson : a3< 0.58 • Factor 2-3 improvement with HL-LHC
19 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) higgs→WW →ℓνℓν(ℓ = e, μ) ATL-PHYS-PUB-2013-014 CMS-NOTE-2013-002 Currently ~25% uncertainty on μ • CMS expects 7% uncertainty as scenario 1 • ATLAS expects ~10% uncertainty • Contribution for ggF and VBF production are investigated • This analysis extrapolate detector level reco. events in 8TeV MC samples • parton distribution function reweighting • emulation of the ATLAS detector in the high pile-up environment • loss in the trigger efficiency • additional jet pT smearing • pile-up jet pT and η distribution • soft terms in the track-ETmiss • stability of b-tagging • eμ channel is considered for ggF and VBF • leading lepton pT> 25 GeV • mℓℓ> 10 GeV
20 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) higgs→WW → ℓνℓν(ℓ = e, μ) ATL-PHYS-PUB-2013-014 CMS-NOTE-2013-002 • Jet thresholds tuning for pile-up and ttbar increase • ggF • Njet = 0 • JetpT > 35 GeV • Theoretical uncertainties dominates • VBF • Njet> 1 • JetpT > 45 GeV • |ηjj| > 2.0 • veto central jet pT > 30 GeV • mjj > 1.25 GeV • Experimental uncertainties dominates • background modeling becomes better with the increased data • same sign lepton selection • signal region side band • detector response • jet energy scale and resolution • b-tagging efficiency
21 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) higgs→ττ ATL-PHYS-PUB-2013-014 CMS-NOTE-2013-002 Currently ~30% uncertainty on μ • CMS expects 8% uncertainty as scenario 1 • ATLAS expects 19% uncertainty • Assume the performance based on Run 1 with μ=10 • VBF higgs →ττ →ℓℓ • 2 opposite sign leptons with pT > 35 GeV • at least 2 jets with a central jet vet and a b-jet veto • ETMiss> 40 (20) GeV for same (different)flavor lepton • VBF higgs →ττ →ℓh • latest hadronic τ identification and Higgs mass estimation algorithm • Other channel such as boosted categories and the Vhchannel have not included yet.
22 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) higgs→bb ATL-PHYS-PUB-2014-011 Currently ~50% uncertainty on μ • CMS expects 7% uncertainty as scenario 1. • ATLAS expects 14% uncertainty w/possible improvement • Wh→ℓνbband Zh→ℓℓbb • 2 b-jets • leading jet pT> 60 GeV (45 GeV) • sub-leading jet pT > 40 GeV (20 GeV) • 0 or 1 extra jet • pT > 30 GeV (20 GeV) • Conservatively uncertainty on 𝜇 of 19% 10% of the JES uncertainty 5% of the JES uncertainty
23 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) higgs → bb ATL-PHYS-PUB-2014-011 • Further improvement can be possible • multivariate analysis • jet calibration (global sequential calibration) • b-tagging : split into several categories uncertainty on 𝜇 of 14% can be achieved • Zh→ννbbchannel can be also included. 10% of the JES uncertainty 5% of the JES uncertainty
24 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) higgs → μμ Current limit 7 times SM : Chance to measure coupling to 2nd generation fermion • CMS expects 24% uncertainty as scenario 1. • ATLAS expects 21% uncertainty • based on the 2012 higgs→μμsearch • not considered improved resolution with the ITK • Analyzed muons • passing single muon trigger pT > 25 GeV and|η| < 2.5 • at least 1 muon with pT > 20 GeV and |η| < 2.5 • track-based isolation is taken into account by applying measured efficiency in full simulation • selection of the two highest pTmuons having opposite charge • Z/γ→μμ is the main background for this analysis
25 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) higgs→ μμ • Sensitivity is still statistically limited • factor 2 improvement from 46% with 300 fb-1 • tth→μμ category is also investigated • at least 4 jets • 33 signal and 22 background • Almost comparable sensitivity compared to tth→ γγand tth→ ZZ
26 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) higgs→ Zγ→ℓℓγ (ℓ = e,μ) ATL-PHYS-PUB-2014-006 CMS-NOTE-2013-002 h → Zγand h → γγare possible only through loop, which is sensitive to new physics • At 125 GeV Higgs, Br(h→Zγ→ℓℓγ) = 1.1 x 10-4 , e.g.Br(h→γγ)= 2.3 x 10-3 • Charged scalar boson, other electroweak singlets and triplets can be contributed into loop • For some models, Br(h→Zγ) and Br(h→γγ) are not correlated • Combined analysis can give information on new physics
27 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) higgs→ Zγ→ℓℓγ (ℓ = e,μ) Current limit 20 times SM • CMS expects 24% uncertainty as scenario 1. • Atlas expects30% uncertainty • Object selection • μ : • γ : pT > 15 GeV • Main background is qq→Zγ, which are almost back-to-back • pTtis defined as the projection of pTZγ onto the thrust axis in the transvers plane • pTt> 30 GeV(most sensitive!!) • pTt< 30 GeV, Δη < 2.0 • pTt< 30 GeV,Δη>2.0 • Sensitivity is still statistically limited • factor 2 improvement from 300 fb-1
28 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) higgs self-coupling • Only way to investigate the higgs potential • deviation from the SM expectations are hint of new physics • Destructive interference between two diagrams: • Small cross-section at Mh=125 GeV, σ = 40 ± 3 fb-1 • It is likely that we need to combine all branches even for 3σ • hh→bbWW: Large branching fraction, but large background • hh→bbγγ: Small branching fraction, but low background • Work just started • Ifλhhh is 0 or negative values, • Cross section increases by more than factor 2 • Discovery might be coming soon!! ー
29 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) Signal strengths : μ=σ/σSM • HL-LHC can reach accuracy on μ~ 10% • CMS • Scenario1 : same systematic uncertainties as in 2012 • Scenario2 : theory unc. are scaled by ½ , other syst. unc. are scaled by 1/√L • ATLAS • hashed area shows theory uncertainty. • Several unc. are cancelled out when taking ratio.
30 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) Couplings • Total width Γh is assumed to be sum of SM widths • can not be measured at LHC • assume no new invisible channel • higgs→ccis 5% unmeasured contribution • CMS : Assumed to scale with bb • ATLAS : Assumed to scale with ττ • since higgs→bbprospect did not ready at that time • Sensitivity is a factor 2 apart • 9 different coupling scale factors • Tree level • κW , κZ , κμ , κτ , κb , κt • Loop induced • κγ , κg , κZγ
31 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) Couplings ratios • HL-LHC can reach accuracy on coupling ratio ~ 5% • Several experimental syst. cancels in the ratios • Similar for ATLAS and CMS • Further improvement can be achieved by reduction of theoretical uncertainty. • could be reach 2-3% precision
32 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) Composite higgs • Minimal Composite higgs Models • Another possible explanation for the naturalness problem • Characterized by v=246 GeV and compositeness scale, f; • MCHM4 model : • Couplings to vector bosons & fermions modified from SM • f < 710 GeVis excluded (95% CL) • Stringent test can be achieved at HL-LHC
33 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) Additional electroweak singlet • The simplest extension to the SM higgs sector • providing a possible answer to the dark matter problem • EW singlet field is added to the doublet Higgs field of the SM (two CP-even Higgs bosons, h and H ) • Coupling for the new EW singlet, κ’, can be obtained with obtained signal strength μ; • observed 95% CL upper limit of κ’< 0.12 • Achievable sensitivity • ~15 % : Current precision on μh • 3.2 % : 300 fb-1 • 2.5 % : 3000 fb-1 • If theory unc. is significantly reduced, HL-LHC can search κ’up to 0.016
34 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) 2HDM including MSSM • SM higgs sector is extended by an additional doublet,including MSSM as typeⅡ • κV = sin(β-α) • κu = cos(α)/sin(β) cos(β-α) v.s. tanβ as 2D plane is used • κd,l = -sin(α)/cos(β) • A significant area can be searched with 300fb-1 • Factor 2 improvement will be expected with 3000fb-1 ATL-PHYS-PUB-2013-015 ATLAS-CONF-2014-010
35 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) 2HDM including MSSM • Large deviation of the coupling is predicted • Depending on CP-odd Higgs mass, mA • mA <200 GeV is excluded by direct search • Even mAwith800 GeV makes +5% deviation for down-type fermion • for the vector bosons and up-type fermion, negative deviation ( -1% ~ 0% )should be appeared • Taking the ratio with 2-3 % prediction can probe this !! CMS-PAS-HIG-13-021 Phys. Rev. D 86, 095001
36 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) Directsearch for BSM related to higgs • higgs → invisible • Heavy Higgs (H/A) decay • top → charm + higgs • Vector boson scattering
37 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) higgs → invisible ℓ q Z ℓ Z* χ H χ q • Zh →ℓℓ + invisible can directly search this BSM decay • One of the possible candidates for invisible is dark matter • SM invisible decay : Br(higgs→ZZ→4ν) = 0.12% • Complimentary search can be achieved by summing up all the higgs coupling measurements • Object selections • Leptons • μ : pT > 20 GeV, |η| < 2.50 • e : pT > 20 GeV, |η| < 2.47 • 3rd lepton veto with pT> 7 GeV to suppress the WZ background • ETmissthreshold and the angular cuts are relaxed due to the higher pileup condition • Z+jetsbackground drastically increases in the lowest ETmissbin • the highest ETmissbin has the best sensitivity • HL-LHC can search Br(higgs→invisible) ~ 10% • Sensitivity for dark matter within higgs portal models
38 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) Heavy higgs (H/A)decay • For low tanβ region, these heavy higgs decays provide complimentary sensitivity to coupling studies. • H → ZZ → 4ℓ • A →Zh→ℓℓbb • For both channels, there are factor 2-3 improvement from 300fb-1 to 3000fb-1 CMS-PAS-FTR-13-024
39 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) top → charm + higgs • Flavor changing neutral current appear in two-Higgs doublet modelfor example • 2HDM without explicit flavor conservation, which is TypeⅢ, predicts large FCNC, 1o-5 – 10-3. • Same coupling for up-type and down-type quarks • Different coupling for leptons • SM FCNC decays is GIM-suppressed, 3 x 10-15. • Object selections • the same as the analysis for Run1 • Discriminant variable is γγ+jetinvariant mass • Expected limit at HL-LHC • Br(t→c+higgs) = 1.2-1.4 x 10-4 can be reached h
40 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) Vector boson scattering • Higgs preserves the unitarity of scattering amplitudes in WLWL scattering • Several anomalous quartic couplings have been investigated • 300fb-1 is sufficient for 5σ observation for SM electroweak scattering • 5σ discovery sensitivity (300fb-1 3000fb-1) = + + ?
41 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University) Conclusion • ATLAS and CMS upgrade are intended to keep the same performance as Run1 • Coupling measurement at HL-LHC will be 2 times more precise than with 300fb-1 • Gauge bosons : a few percent level • Need theoretical improvement for further precision • Fermions including higgs→μμ: around 10% • There are rooms for improvement on flavor tagging, jet energy calibration, background modeling and so on • higgs→Zγ: around 30% • This channels provide us complementary knowledge for new physics in loop • higgs self-coupling : study ongoing toward 3σ • If something strange happens in λhhh, production cross section will be enhanced very much. • Directsearch for BSM related to higgs • Heavy higgs (H/A) decay • higgs→invisible • FCNC search viatop→charm + higgs • Vector boson scattering Strict test for composite Higgs, additional singlet/doublet including MSSM and generation complementary to coupling measurement
45 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University)
46 Next steps in the Energy Frontier - Hadron Colliders Hidetoshi Otono (Kyusyu University)
Hγγ • H ZZ • H WW