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A Review of HS Dent Forecasts April 2011 – September 2011

A Review of HS Dent Forecasts April 2011 – September 2011. presented by Rodney Johnson President, HS Dent. Forecasts April 2011 – September 2011. HS Dent Forecast & Updates April 2011.

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A Review of HS Dent Forecasts April 2011 – September 2011

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  1. A Review of HS Dent Forecasts April 2011 – September 2011 presented by Rodney Johnson President, HS Dent

  2. ForecastsApril 2011 – September 2011

  3. HS Dent Forecast & UpdatesApril 2011 Use this time to prune positions that have seen extraordinary gains and set a plan for exiting positions altogether, in precious metals, energy and commodities first, then US stocks and corporate bonds, then emerging markets. Oil may be hitting a major top between $116-$120, Investors should cut exposure to oil. S&P should have one more rally before breaking down in fall 4/25 – Sell ½ of precious metal positions, buy ½ of UUP

  4. SilverSell Signal Updates on April 21 and April 25 5 B 3 1 A C 4 2 Source: Bloomberg

  5. GoldUpdates on April 21 and April 25 5 2 B 4 3 2 A 4 1 C 2 Source: Bloomberg

  6. Oil IndexJanuary 2011 – October 2011 Data Source: Bloomberg

  7. S&P 500 IndexApril 2011 Scenario #1 B c a b Source: Yahoo Finance

  8. Dow Comparison Scenario #1 1968-1974 vs. 2007-2013 Adjusted for Inflation Source: Yahoo Finance

  9. Dow Comparison Scenario #2 1968-1974 vs. 2007-2013 Adjusted for Inflation Source: Yahoo Finance

  10. Dollar IndexJanuary 2008 – May 2011 Source: Bloomberg

  11. Financial Professionals “What you Need to Know” July 2011 The range-bound markets should keep things interesting, bouncing back and forth in a 7-8% spread, while interest rates creep higher. A break below 1,250 on the S&P could indicate a much deeper drop, as the next big move should be down, although we do not expect this until late in 2011 at the earliest. The economic drivers are deteriorating, not accelerating. In this risky environment the goal is to make sure clients are protected from devastating losses through lower risk investments and hedging strategies.

  12. TBT Update RecommendationShort Recommendation July 29 July 29: “Hence, we have likely seen the worst economic news for now and this should be a great time to add to shorts on Treasury bonds by buying TBT (2X short) or TBF (1X short), which bets on yields going up. The US is increasingly likely to be downgraded a notch in the coming days or weeks and Treasury bond yields should rise  a bit over that, and as you know, we have been forecasting a substantial rise in rates into early 2012 August 2, 2011 We were early on the TBT buy with the continued focus on economic weakness, but this index should turn up as well near term and we will re-evaluate. August 3, 2011 Our recommendation to add TBT was clearly premature and their has been a bigger decline in yields than we thought possible near term. There is likely support around 2.5% yields on the 10-year US Treasury bond just below here, so it is probably better to wait for a bounce in yields at this point to sell TBT. If economic data picks up substantially, then we may see a major bottom here.

  13. TBT Performance Update from July 28, 2011 Source: Yahoo.com

  14. Summary Recommendations “August Newsletter and Updates” More conservative investors should sell stocks if we see a bounce back toward 1,218 by early September More aggressive investors should sell in early September on a bounce, re-buy if we see new lows in October, then sell late in 2011 on a final bounce T-Bond Yields bottomed at 2%, but may retest those levels in late September (and rise dramatically by early to mid-2012 Commodities may have peaked in April, but they should rally possibly into the 4th quarter, creating another sell signal in late 2011/early 2012 Gold and silver look like they are approaching a major top where the greatest declines and selling/short opportunities occur

  15. Silver/Gold Update Recommendation25% sell in gold and silver on August 8 when Gold got near $1710. August 8, 2011 Stocks look to be back down near their lows this morning and gold has rocketed up to as high as $1,710 which was our next target. After our sell recommendation last week at the stop loss level of 1,247 on the S&P 500 and then again at the small bounce level of 1,260, we think for traders this is a short term buy opportunity in stocks and an opportunity to short Treasury bonds and sell gold/silver. Traders can buy securities like IWM or QQQQ, TBT and DZZ (2X short gold).

  16. Market Update RecommendationImportant Update for Major Portfolio Change August 31, 2011 We are recommending that conservative to moderate risk investors sell stocks today in the 1,225 - 1,230 range on the S&P 500. This represents a major long term sell signal. More aggressive investors and traders can sell here and look to re-buy in the weeks ahead if we do make new lows in the markets. You may want to wait to actually short stocks for some confirmation that we are breaking down again, which we will warn if that occurs. If we do actually break substantially above 1,260 on the S&P 500, then the markets could head higher for awhile and shorting would not make sense near term.

  17. S&P 500, Rising Wedge PatternAugust 2011Scenario 1 B c 5 3 a 2 5 4 3 1 1 1 4 2 1 b 2 A Data Source: Yahoo Finance, 2011

  18. U.S. Dollar Index August 2011, 2008 – 2011 1 b Indexed Value of USD vs. Major Currencies a c Source: Data Source from Bloomberg, 2011

  19. September 2011 “Newsletter Forecasts” The next 3-6 Months may be the most confusing and surprising in decades – Economists are ratcheting down their previous optimistic forecasts for the 4th quarter while the Daily Growth Index points towards a strong 4th quarter Looking at a possible sudden rebound in the economy just as Obama is seeking a $447 billion infrastructure/jobs program Possibility of short term surge in inflation

  20. Dollar Update RecommendationSecond Long Term Buy Signal for the Dollar. September 9, 2011 We are giving a second major buy signal for the US dollar as the dollar index has broken above 76.40 out of its recent trading range. Our first buy signal was near 73.00. This means buying the ETF UUP at 21.90 or better. You can either buy now on this break out or on any near term pullbacks.

  21. S&P 500 Scenario 1 Sept 2011, April 2011- March 2012 2 2 4 c 5 1 a 3 b 5 1 Data Source: Yahoo Finance, 2011

  22. S&P 500 Scenario 2 Sept 2011, April 2011- March 2012 B 5 3 2 5 1 4 Data Source: Yahoo Finance, 2011

  23. Yields on U.S. 10-Year TreasurySept 2011 NL,January 2008- July 2012 A C b a c B Data Source: Yahoo Finance, 2011

  24. April 2011 – Sept 2011 Hits Hits Silver sell in April Oil top in May Markets down in August Stronger than expected 3rd quarter Higher than expected inflation Rising US Dollar, falling euro

  25. April 2011 – Sept 2011Misses Misses Early view that top of market would be later in year (now see top in April 2011 as most likely) Top of Gold thought to be $1,600 range Call for shorting Treasuries early in summer

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