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A weak €zone

Global Real Estate Institute España GRI 2014 Madrid 20-21 May Keynote speech: “Spain’s Convalescence” Prof. Pedro Schwartz B.Ll., Dr. Iuris (Madrid), M.Sc. (Econ), Ph.D. (London). A weak €zone. 2. Money market interest rates. €zone inflation (Annual % changes). 4. Spreads against Germany.

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A weak €zone

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  1. Global Real Estate InstituteEspaña GRI 2014Madrid 20-21 MayKeynote speech: “Spain’s Convalescence”Prof. Pedro SchwartzB.Ll., Dr. Iuris (Madrid), M.Sc. (Econ), Ph.D. (London)

  2. A weak €zone 2

  3. Money market interest rates

  4. €zone inflation (Annual % changes) 4

  5. Spreads against Germany 5

  6. Probability of credit events 6

  7. € effective exchange rate 7

  8. €zone current account surplus 8

  9. €zone & US stock indices 9

  10. Spain was pretty sick 10

  11. Spain’s value added in construction 11

  12. Unemployment and employment rates (Spain)

  13. €zone unemployment 13

  14. Spain: bank loans 14

  15. Spanish bank: non performing loans 15

  16. Doubtful bank assets(SAREB effect shaded area) 16

  17. Spain is convalescing 17

  18. Economic forecast (Spanish Government) 18

  19. Foreign sector contribution to GDP growth 19

  20. Competitiveness 20

  21. Exports grow, more than imports 21

  22. Spain’s current account in surplus • In the full year 2013, the current account recorded a surplus of EUR 7.1 billion (equivalent to 0.7% of GDP), which contrasts the EUR 11.5 billion deficit (equivalent to 1.1% of GDP) tallied in 2012 and marks the first surplus since 1986 • Consensus reckons surplus to be 1.9% of GDP in 2014 • In 2015 surplus could reach 2.2 % of GDP (Source: Focuseconomics) 22

  23. Confidence returns 23

  24. Low systemic risk indicators 24

  25. ECB loans to €banks 25

  26. New credit to non-financials by Spanish banks 26

  27. Spanish inflation 27

  28. Spanish Budget deficit 28

  29. Spanish public debt 29

  30. Compared real GDP growth(Δ 1.4% in 2014) 30

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