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Working Group on Nowcasting Research Annual Report to JSC6

Working Group on Nowcasting Research Annual Report to JSC6. 20130718 Paul Joe. Outline. Membership JSC5 Action Items Projects – Near Past, Current and Future Other Activities Planned Meetings. Approval/Advice from JSC. Membership Scheduling? Lake Victoria (defer to 4.7)

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Working Group on Nowcasting Research Annual Report to JSC6

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  1. Working Group on Nowcasting ResearchAnnual Report to JSC6 20130718 Paul Joe WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  2. Outline • Membership • JSC5 Action Items • Projects – Near Past, Current and Future • Other Activities • Planned Meetings WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  3. Approval/Advice from JSC • Membership Scheduling? • Lake Victoria (defer to 4.7) • WGNR Meeting – EA 2014? • WSN15 or WSN16 – begin to prepare? • WWOSC Nowcasting White Paper? • Merging? WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  4. Tom Keenan Steve Goodman WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  5. Startup in 2003 • Staggered membership began in 2011 • Now organized to change every 4 years* • Chair in year preceding year • 2 term rule* WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  6. JSC5 Action Items • 36 – CIMO Link • 38 – Lake Victoria • 39 – Contribute to WIGOS WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  7. 36 CIMO Link • “Link should be established with CIMO to look into defining a standard for operational instrumentation.” • Action to: Chairs of JWGFVR, WGNR, CAS President • DONE! • JWGFVR is a member of the Solid Precipitation Inter-comparison Experiment International Organizing Committee of CIMO (June 2013) • Defer to JWGFR report WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  8. 38 – Lake Victoria • “Executive Council requested WWRP to investigate a Lake Victoria Basin Understanding project.  UKMO noted gap in lack of evaluation process for local forecasts in Lake Victoria region, JSC asked to consider establishing a field RDP.” • On-going • Discussed under “future project 4.7” WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  9. 39 - Contribute to WIGOS • JSC recommended provision of quantified WWRP requirements as input to WIGOS. • Provided input to CBS/SBO Weather Radar Data Exchange Initiative - DONE • Plan is to organize various FDP science and monitoring leads to draft “user requirements table” for nowcasting data requirements for fine scale observation and prediction • On-going/see next slide WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  10. GCOS Data Requirements Table Spatial Resolution Cycle Time WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  11. Projects • SNOW-V10 • NWP for Nowcasting • FROST14 • INCA-CE • TOMACS • Korea 2018 • Lake Victoria Project WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  12. SNOW-V10 3 journal papers published 17 journal papers accepted for publication 40+ Conference papers More to come… WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  13. SNOW-V10 FROST-14Capacity Building Oct 2012 Sochi Forecaster Training WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  14. Weather Olympians WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013 2014 1980 2000 2014

  15. FROST-2014: • To develop a comprehensive information resource of alpine winter weather observations; • To improve and exploit:– high-resolution deterministic mesoscale forecasts of meteorological conditions in winter complex terrain environment; – regional meso-scale ensemble forecast products in winter complex terrain environment; – nowcast systems of high impact weather phenomena (wind, visibility, precipitation type and intensity etc.) in complex terrain. • To improve the understanding of physics of high impact weather phenomena in the region; • To deliver deterministic and probabilistic forecasts in real time to Olympic weather forecasters and decision makers. • To assess benefits of forecast improvement (verification and societal impacts) WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  16. Today’s network of meteorological stations in the region of Sochi WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  17. Vaisala C-band Doppler radar WRM200 on Akhun mountain in Sochi was launched in September 2012 Altitude – 646 m Location: 43о32’52,6״ N, 39о51׳05,0״E. • Max reflectivity; • wind&refl 2km-cappy; • echo tops; • 1-hour precipitation Raw Turkish data are expected to be available WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  18. Mobile Remote Sensing Vertical Profile of Doppler Spectra MRR Radiometer Wind Profiler + 4 times/day upper air sounding in Sochi WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013 Radiometer MRR

  19. 3. DEMOS – 24 Jan 2013 (heavy rain/snow) 2.5 km 1.0 km 250m Precipitation Cascading Domain Wind Same domain 25 Jan 2013 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013 Model Elevation – Jason Milbrandt

  20. 3. DEMOS – 24 Jan 2013 (heavy rain/snow) X-C S-J Alpine 250 m WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  21. Ensemble project component Current state: COSMO-S14-EPS, GLAMEPS, NOAA-7km EPS, COSMO-RU2-EPS Expected: HARMON-EPS, Aladin LAEF /AROME-1km, KMA’s downscaling of probabilistic forecasts. Poor man’s ensemble of deterministic high-resolution models WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  22. INCA-CE See Ingo Meirold-Mautner report. Agenda item 4.3.. WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  23. TOMACS Proposal WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  24. Use of Dense Observations WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013 11+ radars

  25. Fine Scale Data Assimilation WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  26. PyeongChang Korea 2018 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013 Radars Wind Profiler AWS Met. Sensors of IPS Surface detectors

  27. Met. Supports : Specialized Support System • Special Observation • Research (snow process and physics) • Forecasting system development Sonde Special OBS Snow process and physics Precipitation type Forecast WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  28. Met. Supports : Specialized Support System • Research on the physical processes over the rugged terrain and High Mountain Forecast system specialized on mountain : Radiation over slope SFC TEMP at sunrise (SH-ORG) Freezing level Forecast Understanding the specific physical processes over the mountainous area through the special observation WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  29. Met. Supports : Specialized Support System • Supporting system for each venues WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  30. Lake Victoria Project Proposal The Nowcast System The SWFDP The Field Project Capacity Building “WMO Executive Council (EC) recommended that a World Weather Research Programme (WWRP) project be considered for the Lake Victoria Watershed that would include a test-bed for field campaigns to collect data for research to understand the dynamics over the lake in order to reduce disasterfrom water spouts, waves, and wind gusts that affect both lake transport and fishermen who rely on the lake for their livelihoods. The EC further noted the potential linkages with the SWFDP for Eastern Africa." EC 2010 Four Components WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  31. Lake Victoria(Item 4.7) WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  32. The Field Project Meteorological Understanding Scientific Validation Statistical Verification Red Stars – surveillance radar White Stars – hi res radar, dual-doppler Blue Star 6 – IOS Blue Star 4 – Upper Air Station Yellow – Met Stns WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  33. Other ActivitiesPlanned Meetings WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  34. NWP for Nowcasting • Predictability of Precipitation Systems • Mesoscale Networks • Data Assimilation and Rapid Update WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  35. WWRP Symposium on Nowcasting Research Rio di Janiero, Aug 2012 166 participants from 21 countries + 2 hours of lectures each day Radar Renewal in SA Nowcasting Impetus La Plata Rio 2016 Port Ops WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  36. Initiated by radar renewal, radar networks, nowcasting needs, La Plata Basin Initiated by Celeste Saulo, Paola Salio, Claudio Campetella, WSN12 Lead trainer is Rita Roberts of NCAR 5-16 August 2013 in Buenos Aires TRMM Height of 40 dBZ Echo TRMM Lightning Flash #/min Argentina Training (T-NOTE) WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  37. The Workshop Agenda WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  38. EUMETNET – NowcastingNew initiative began 1 Jan 2013 WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  39. Membership(23 Countries) WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  40. Milestones Establishment of a group of nowcasting experts under the EUMETNET governance and their motivation for engagement in the nowcasting related planning within EUMETNET Provision of a scientific and technical overview of the applied nowcasting systems in Europe including quality assessment and development of verification standards for nowcasting (define parameters to verify, methods and observations to use for verification) Identification of (scientific or technical) elements in the presently existing nowcasting systems, which are worthwhile for exchange between members and the organization of the exchange process Assessment and interpretation of observation and NWP requirements for improved nowcasting and their communication with the relevant communities Preparation of the Nowcasting Activity proposal for the second phase (2014-2017) Nowcasting Activity 24.04.2013 EUMETNET WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  41. Deliverables Nowcasting Activity 24.04.2013 EUMETNET WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  42. Re-Organization JONAS + WGNR WGNR + WGMWFR WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  43. Technology Transfer Activities • Guide to Nowcasting • Promote • Capacity Building • Training Workshop JONAS = WGNR + PWS • Action item from JSC4 • Discussion initiated with PWS • Open discussion, various options discussed • Planned to meet this week -> TBD • WGNR/WWRP • FDP’s/RDP’s • Advance • Promote • Capacity Build CBS GDPFS (SWFDP) PWS (SWFDP, WENS) JWGVFR? SERA? Obs Dept?

  44. WGNR + WGMWFR • Initiated by WWRP • Telecon, WGMWFR in June 2013 • No discussion within WGNR WWW CBS CIMO CAS WWRP WGNR WGMWFR HIW GDPFS PWS JONAS WGNE DAOS WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  45. Benefits: Automation -> NWP Probabilistic/Ensemble Nowcasting Focus on 2-12 gap Mutli-parameter • Parameterization • Numerics • Gray Zone • Typhoon LAM • Land Surface Data Sets • Optimal Use of existing networks • Understanding • Systems, Heuristics • Forecaster Interaction • Promotion • Capacity Building • New Technologies • Maturity, skill of NWP for severe weather (core) Brainstorm at WGMWFR • Impact • Co-chair, membership at 20? • Too broad? 20 is unwieldy, difficult to cover expectations if much less? • Severe Weather? Hi-Res NWP dev Fine Scale DA dev Observations DQ Hi-Res NWP use Fine Scale DA analysis Observations DQ Brief Summary: No one at WGMWFR adverse to re-organization Address gaps? Clarity on rationale? Since many options. Gaps: Forecast Systems Observations WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  46. Early Activities • Guide to Nowcasting (P. Li, HKO) • Aviation Nowcasting Initiative (P. Li, HKO) • CAEM developing strategic plan for aviation • SESAR in Europe • NEXTGEN in U.S. • Brazil Regional Training Centre – Nowcasting • Presented in WGNR Rio meeting • At USP, extended training workshops (2-6 weeks); annual • Request sustainability plan WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  47. Planned Meetings • Lake Victoria Planning Meetings? • WGNR – East Africa 2014? • EUMETNET Nowcasting 11/2013 or Spring 2014? • TOMACS Kickoff – Dec 2013 • FROST 14 Science – Spring 2014 • WWOSC – Montreal, July 2014 • WSN 15 or 16? • Hong Kong, Capetown, Sydney, Shanghai • EUMENET Nowcasting Meeting ~May 2014 • Urban Nowcasting Workshop 2015/16? • TOMACS, SREP, Pan Am2015 • With WSN? PanAm15 Wx, AQ, HI WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  48. Approval/Advice from JSC • Membership Scheduling? • Lake Victoria (defer to 4.7) • WGNR Meeting – EA 2014? • WSN15 or WSN16 – begin to prepare? • WWOSC Nowcasting White Paper expected? • Merging? WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

  49. Thank You WGNR - JSC6 July 18 2013

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