Rachael McDonnell, Mark Peters, Shahid Habib , Claire Kfouri

1. Supporting adaptive management by harnessing climate change and water science information innovation Rachael McDonnell, Mark Peters, ShahidHabib, Claire Kfouri

3. International Center for Biosaline Agriculture (ICBA) – from field to policy

4. Scarce data in a water scarce region • Scarce data resources - poor space and time coverage • Difficulties of data sharing even within a country • Limits management and policy-development process

5. Accessing climate change data is complex and specialist

6. Little research in the MENA region as highlighted in 2007 IPCC report Temperature anomalies based relative to average 1901-1950 Christienssen et al. 4th assessment report IPCC 2007 WG I

7. MAWRED- Modeling and monitoring of Agriculture and Water Resources Development NASA’s MENA-LDAS LIS WRF models Regular data on status of water and agricultural resources under current and future climate conditions

8. Water resources Agriculture Groundwater, soil moisture, surface water, evapo-transpiration, drought monitoring, Land cover/crop type maps, irrigation intensity, potential crop yield maps MENA – LDAS LIS and WRF Routing module Crop & irrigation module Atmospheric forcing (GDAS, CFS, CMIP5) Remote sensing data (Landsat, GRACE, MODIS, AMSR, ASTER, TRMM, PERSIANN, SMOS) Climate change scenarios: Long-term trends (CMIP5) Seasonal forecast (CFS/NCEP; 6-9 months) Forecasting

9. The MAWRED and WISP programs

10. ATMOSPHERIC FORCING: rain, snow, T, q, v, Ps, Rg, Rat Rn Wr LE H evaporation Ws Ds Hs snow diffusion wg Ts runoff G diffusion w2 drainage T2 drainage w3 Regional analysis and climate change modeling - MENA-LDAS Tile

11. Using climate change scenarios to understand potential impacts Regional climate change, water and agricultural data will be made available to all through a web portal in the coming months

12. Country scale analysis and climate change modeling -LIS • Develop country-scale level output to provide decision-makers with data specific to their country’s needs • Linking remotely sensed data, with future predictive modeling to understand changes to water and agricultural production systems

13. Statistical and dynamic downscaling • Develop linked model between global and local atmospheric influences on climate for statistical downscaling • Then use this project forward future conditions • WRF model being developed over high-performance computing centre for dynamic downscaling

14. Key outputs of MAWRED – access to data for all • Providing readily available data to all decision-makers from April 2013 • Knowledge hub at ICBA in Dubai open to all so managers/advisers can come and run scenarios as they need • ICBA working closely with ministries across the region and across the sectors to develop the data they need

15. Key outputs from MAWRED program – developed in-country science capabilities • Developing local science capacity • A new cadre of local scientists using leading-edge climate change modeling systems to generate data using knowledge of local conditions • Delivery of easy-to-use open-source modeling and in-country training to ensure capabilities within local institutions is developed to develop further data • Knowledge hub at ICBA open to all scientists from across the fields who need to undertake local climate change analysis

16. MAWRED – helping to support adaptive management • Managing water requires knowledge of available resources and potential use under different climatic conditions • MAWRED is a regional resource to provide local managers with the data they need to make informed decisions and adapt policy to changing conditions

17. Thank you r.mcdonnell@biosaline.org.ae