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Visioning and Backcasting: Desirable Futures and Key Decisions

Visioning and Backcasting: Desirable Futures and Key Decisions. Dominic Stead OTB Research Institute Delft University of Technology NETHERLANDS. David Banister Bartlett School of Planning University College London UNITED KINGDOM. Content.

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Visioning and Backcasting: Desirable Futures and Key Decisions

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  1. Visioning and Backcasting:Desirable Futures and Key Decisions • Dominic Stead • OTB Research Institute • Delft University of Technology • NETHERLANDS David Banister Bartlett School of Planning University College London UNITED KINGDOM STELLA Focus Group 4 meeting, Brussels 25-27 March 2004

  2. Content Are there commonalities in the approach and/or policy recommendations of recent transport futures studies? • introduction and context • futures studies • the backcasting approach • meta-analysis of futures studies • conclusions STELLA Focus Group 4 meeting, Brussels 25-27 March 2004

  3. Introduction and context Across the EU: • increasing car ownership and use • increasing passenger and freight volumes • increasing congestion, environmental and health impacts • trends in an undesirable direction • how can we reverse these trends? STELLA Focus Group 4 meeting, Brussels 25-27 March 2004

  4. The use of futures studies • until around the 1970s, futures studies were based mainly on traditional extrapolation • scenario techniques then started to be used (e.g. Rand – defence, Shell – fuel supply) • aim not to predict the future but to assist decision-making (especially for the long-term) under uncertainty • a variety of different scenarios can help to identify the ‘possibility space’ of the future STELLA Focus Group 4 meeting, Brussels 25-27 March 2004

  5. Possibility space STELLA Focus Group 4 meeting, Brussels 25-27 March 2004

  6. Why futures studies are used • to provide frameworks for policy decisions • to help to identify dangers and opportunities for policies • to help to assess alternative policies and actions under different conditions • to try to increase creativity and choice in policy-making STELLA Focus Group 4 meeting, Brussels 25-27 March 2004

  7. Types of futures studies Futures studies consider one or more of the three P’s: 1. Possible futures. What may happen? 2. Probable futures. What is most likely to happen? 3. Preferable futures. What we would prefer to happen? • backcasting concerns the latter – identifying preferable futures “The major distinguishing characteristic of backcasting analysis is a concern, not with what futures are likely to happen, but with how desirable futures can be attained. It is thus explicitly normative, involving working backwards from a particular desirable future end-point to the present in order to determine the physical feasibility of that future and what policy measures would be required to reach that point.” (Robinson, 1990) STELLA Focus Group 4 meeting, Brussels 25-27 March 2004

  8. Forecasting and backcasting VISION OF THE FUTURE FUTURE Backcasting Forecasting PRESENT PRESENT STELLA Focus Group 4 meeting, Brussels 25-27 March 2004

  9. Forecasting and backcasting forecast Xf1 trend X0 backcast Xf2 Tp T0 = now Tf STELLA Focus Group 4 meeting, Brussels 25-27 March 2004

  10. The backcasting approach • key issues • projections of key issues • policy targets • images of the future • policy options • policy packages • policy paths • validation and assessment (Stead and Banister, 2003) STELLA Focus Group 4 meeting, Brussels 25-27 March 2004

  11. Meta-analysis of futures studies • various recent futures studies concerning transport  40 • are there common strands? • similar outputs, recommendations, policy options? • 6 studies examined: EST (1994-2001, OECD-ENVIRONMENT) POSSUM (1996-1998, EU FP4) STEEDS (1996-1999, EU JOULE) ICTRANS (2002-2003, EU JRC) CPB (1999, NL CENTRAL PLANNING BUREAU) VISION 2030 (2002-2003, UK HIGHWAYS AGENCY) STELLA Focus Group 4 meeting, Brussels 25-27 March 2004

  12. Conclusions • futures studies provide a way of assessing the impact of policies under different future conditions • there is a wide range and breadth of studies, involving both projective and prospective approaches • all six studies examined contain some focus on novel alternative futures that challenge existing thinking • the means by which the ‘challenging ideas’ can be taken on board and integrated into mainstream thinking remains unclear • some of the studies stop short of making policy recommendations • the studies are quite different: there are some commonalities in approach but few similarities concerning policy recommendations STELLA Focus Group 4 meeting, Brussels 25-27 March 2004

  13. END STELLA Focus Group 4 meeting, Brussels 25-27 March 2004

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