最大持続生態系サービスと 順応的生態系管理 松田裕之（横浜国大）

1. http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2008/080527NIE.ppt 最大持続生態系サービスと順応的生態系管理松田裕之（横浜国大） H Matsuda & PA Abrams（トロント大） Ecol. Appl. 2006　16:225-237 牧野光琢（水産総研セ）・小谷浩示（国際大） 5th World Fisheries Congress

2. 今日の話 最大持続漁獲量（MSY)理論批判 順応的生態系管理の限界 最大持続生態系サービスの提案 http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2008/080527NIE.ppt 2008/3/2 2

3. Requiem to Maximum Sustainable Yield Theory Ecosystems are uncertain, non-equilibrium and complex. MSY theory ignores all the three. Myth #2 MSY theory guarantees species persistence… surplusproduction Stockabundance 12/6/06 3

4. Anchovy Horse mackerels Pacific saury Chub mackerel Sardine Catch in Japan (1000 mt) Species Replacement of Pelagic Fishes

5. 改定管理方式は順応的管理の先取りだった。RMP is an AM limit stock level MSY Production Catch quota Fishing rate MSY at 60%, 0 catch at 54%

6. Unconstrained MSY that maximizes the total yield from the community(Matsuda & Abrams 2006) We choose fishing effort ei independently; 6-species systems including 2 prey random matrix with 50% probabilities; we seek r having a positive equilibrium; price p is 0-1 for prey, 0-10 for predators Unconstrained MSY that may result in extinction; 6 5 4 3 1 2 12/6/06 6

7. 6 6 4 5 4 4 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 Some resultant biological communities at MSY (Matsuda & Abrams 2006) Solution maximizing total yield from community MSY solution often reduces species and links; (d) (e) (c) (b) (a) 6 6 4 5 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2

8. 今日の話 最大持続漁獲量（MSY)理論批判 順応的生態系管理の限界 最大持続生態系サービスの提案 http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2008/080527NIE.ppt 2008/3/2 8

9. Feedback control in fishing effort is powerful... Myth #4 Even though the MSY level is unknown, the feedback control stabilizes a broad range of target stock level . N* N* N* Stock size Fishing effort f(N) Stock size N 12/6/06 9

10. Harvest of prey(Matsuda & Abrams 2008 4th WFC Proceedings) Catch of prey will decrease predator, rather than prey In the case of feedback control, dP/dt=0 dN/dt=0

11. Fishing effort must be controlled by the predator density P dE/dt = U(P – Target predator density) E = E(N, P), E/N > 0, E/P > 0 e.g. E = Etarget (1 + a log NP/NtargetPtarget) In this case, feedback control guarantees persistence of the target stock and its predators. Adaptive multi-species management is sometimes needed (seek simplicity, but distrust it). 12/6/06 11

12. 9 10 8 7 5 6 1 4 2 3 Feedback control with community interactions also result in undesired outcomes. (M & A unpublished) r = (0.454,1.059,1.186,0.247,-0.006,-0.028,-0.059,-0.704,-0.308,-0.238) A = (aji) = e9 = 0.1, ei = 0

13. Feedback control may result in extinction of other species (sp. 6). ratio de9/dt = u(N9-N9*)

14. http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2008/080527NIE.ppt 今日の話 • 最大持続漁獲量（MSY)理論批判 • 順応的生態系管理の限界 • 最大持続生態系サービスの提案

15. 人間の福利Human well-being 地球環境変化Gobal change なぜ自然を守るのか? 生態系サービスEcosystem services 供給サービス 生物多様性 Biodiversity 文化的サービス 支持サービス 持続可能性 ＝次世代の人間が生態系サービスを享受できるよう、自然を守る (米生態学会委報告 1996) 生態系機能 Ecosystem functions 調整サービス (MA2005) http://risk.kan.ynu.ac.jp/matsuda/2008/080223.ppt

16. 生態系サービスと人間の福利（MA 2005より） 生態系サービス 人間の福利の構成要素 • 支持サービス　栄養素の循環、土壌形成、一次生産、その他 • 供給サービス • 食料 • 淡水 • 木材と繊維 • 燃料 その他 • 安全保障 • 個人の安全 • 資源利用の保障 • 災害からの保障 • 選択と行動の自由 • 一人一人がやりたいこと、大切にしたいことを達成する能力 • 生存権の基盤 • 適切な生活条件 • 十分な栄養ある食料 • 住居 • 生活用品の提供 • 調整サービス • 気候調節 • 洪水制御 • 疾病制御 • 水質浄化 その他 • 健康 • 活力 • 快適さ • きれいな空気と水の提供 • 文化的サービス • 審美的 • 精神的 • 教育的 • 娯楽的 その他 • よい社会関係 • 社会の連帯感 • 互恵 • 扶助の能力 矢印の色 社会経済的認知度 矢印の太さ 繋がりの強さ　　　　 低い 中間 高い 弱い 中間 強い

17. 生態系サービスの価値 • 生物資源　農林水産物 約140兆円/年 • 生態系service 物質循環 約1700兆円/年 • 資源価値＜＜生態系サービス • 漁場の自然価値＞漁業補償

18. Risk of human lives by climate change Parry et al., (2001)IPCC報告書

19. Effect on ecosystems by climate chage Global mean temperature increase above pre-industrial Hare, W. L. (2003). Assessment of Knowledge on Impacts of Climate Change – Contribution to theSpecification of Art. 2 of the UNFCCC. http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2003_ex01.pdf.

20. Ecosystem services V(N, C) • V(N, C) = Y(C) – cE + S(N) • Provisional Service(Fisheries Yield) … Y(C) • Fishing Cost… cE • Utility of standing biomass… S(N) • C… catch; E… fishing effort; N… stock biomass (Matsuda, Makino, Kotani, in press)

21. Regulating services S(N)= SN2/(B2+N2) (S, B) = (100,10) (S, B) = (50,50) (Matsuda, Makino, Kotani, in press)

22. Stock dynamics … dN/dt = (r – aN)N – C, Catch and yield … C = qEN, Y(C) = pqEN, Regulating service … S(N) = SN2/(B2+N2), Equilibrium … N*(E) = (r – qE)/a Service at N*… V*(E) = pqEN* – cE + S(N*) Optimal effort Eoptsatisfies that V*/E = 0 Maximum Sustainable Ecosystem Service Eopt = (pqr – ac)/2pq2 Mathematics (Matsuda, Makino, Kotani, in press)

23. Maximum Sustainable Ecosystem Service (S, B) = (100,10) (S, B) = (50,50) (S, B) = (0,-) (Matsuda, Makino, Kotani, in press)

24. Control rules Constant escapement ABC rule Constant catch

25. MSY vs MSES with uncertainties (Y*,V*) = (77.6 ,165.7) (Y*,V*) = (43.3, 216.4) stock abundance Catch fishing effort (Matsuda, Makino, Kotani, in press)

26. Community dynamics …dNi/dt = (ri + ajiNj – qiEi)Ni Yield from foodweb… Y(E) = Ei(piqiNi – ci) Total ecosystem services...V(E) = Y(E) + Si(Ni) Si(Ni) = SiNi2/(Bi2+Ni2) We obtained EMSES↑ Y(E) and EMSY↑V(E) MSES from food webs (Matsuda, Makino, Kotani, in press)

27. 3 4 15 30 (a) (b) (c) (d) 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 (e) (f) (g) (h) 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 (Matsuda, Makino, Kotani, in press)

28. Resultant food webs and fishing efforts from 1000 randomly constructed six species systems. (Matsuda, Makino, Kotani, in press)

29. MSES saves fishing efforts Ban-on-Fishing (Matsuda, Makino, Kotani, in press)

30. Conclusion • Responsible fisheries may play roles of umbrella species that use a small part of healthy ecosystem services, and give many data of utilized resources… • Fishing efforts that maximizes the total ecosystem services are usually much smaller than those for maximum sustainable yield. (Matsuda, Makino, Kotani, in press)