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Development of Wildland Fire Emission Inventories with the BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework

Development of Wildland Fire Emission Inventories with the BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework. Sean Raffuse, Erin Gilliland, Dana Sullivan, Neil Wheeler, and Lyle Chinkin Sonoma Technology, Inc., Petaluma, California Sim Larkin, Robert Solomon, Tara Strand U.S. Forest Service AirFIRE Team

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Development of Wildland Fire Emission Inventories with the BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework

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  1. Development of Wildland Fire Emission Inventories with the BlueSky Smoke Modeling Framework Sean Raffuse, Erin Gilliland, Dana Sullivan, Neil Wheeler, and Lyle Chinkin Sonoma Technology, Inc., Petaluma, California Sim Larkin, Robert Solomon, Tara Strand U.S. Forest Service AirFIRE Team Thompson Pace U.S. EPA OAQPS Presented at the 7th Annual Community Modeling and Analysis System (CMAS) Conference Chapel Hill, North Carolina October 7, 2008 STI-3457

  2. Background • NASA Decision Support • NASA-STI-USFS Partnership • SMARTFIRE* – Fire Information • BlueSky Framework – Fuels, Consumption, and Emissions • EPA Work Assignment • Emission Inventory for Wildland Fires • * Satellite Mapping Automatic Reanalysis Tool for Fire Incident Reconciliation

  3. Emission Inventory Processing • Scope • Contiguous United States • August 2002 through 2006 • Wildfires, Wildfire Use, prescribed burning • Agricultural burning excluded • BlueSky Pathway • Fire information: SMARTFIRE • Fuel loading: FCCS (Fuel Characteristic Classification System) • Fuel consumption: Consume 3.0 • Emissions: FEPS (Fire Emission Production Simulator)

  4. BlueSky Framework 3.0 Total Consumption FireInformation TimeRate Emissions PlumeRise Dispersion / Trajectories Fuels BlueSky Pathway ICS-209 SMARTFIRE Other Rx Sys FCCS NFDRS Hardy LANDFIREAg Other CONSUME 3 FEPS FOFEM ClearSky (Ag)Satellite Other FEPSWRAP FOFEM Rx / WF IdealizedManualOther EPM FEPSFOFEM Literature Other Briggs FEPS WRAP Multi-coreDaysmoke Other CALPUFF CMAQ HYSPLIT

  5. Data Sources • ICS-209 reports: AirFIRE, Fire and Aviation Management Web Applications (FAMWEB) web site, and Tom Pace • HMS fire detects: NOAA Hazard Mapping System (Mark Ruminski) • MODIS* fire detects: USFS Remote Sensing Applications Center (used to fill gaps in HMS data) • Fuel moisture: USFS Wildland Fire Assessment System • * Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

  6. Annual PM2.5 Primary Emissions Annual Total 2003 1.28 2004 0.90 2005 1.10 2006 1.67 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 PM (million tons) 2.5 (2003 - 2006, Lower 48 States) Monthly Totals 400 350 2003 2004 2005 2006 300 (ktons) 250 200 2.5 PM 150 100 50 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec May

  7. Annual Average PM2.5 Wildland Fire Emission Density(2003 – 2006)

  8. Average Monthly Wildland Fire PM2.5 Emissions (2003-2006) Month

  9. 250 35 2002 Area PM2.5 250 35 30 2003 Area PM2.5 200 30 25 200 Area (thousand acres) 150 25 20 Area (thousand acres) PM2.5 (ktons) 150 20 PM2.5 (ktons) 15 100 15 10 100 50 10 5 50 5 0 0 0 0 1/1 2/1 3/3 4/3 5/4 6/4 7/5 8/5 9/5 10/6 11/6 12/7 1/1 2/1 3/4 4/4 5/5 6/5 7/6 8/6 9/6 10/7 11/7 12/8 250 35 2004 Area PM2.5 30 200 25 Area (thousand acres) 150 20 PM2.5 (ktons) 15 100 10 50 5 0 0 1/1 2/1 3/3 4/3 5/4 6/4 7/5 8/5 9/5 10/6 11/6 12/7 250 35 2005 Area PM2.5 30 200 25 Area (thousand acres) 150 20 PM2.5 (ktons) 15 100 10 50 5 0 0 1/1 2/1 3/4 4/4 5/5 6/5 7/6 8/6 9/6 10/7 11/7 12/8 250 35 2006 Area PM2.5 30 200 Area (thousand acres) 25 150 20 PM2.5 (ktons) 15 100 10 50 5 0 0 1/1 2/1 3/4 4/4 5/5 6/5 7/6 8/6 9/6 10/7 11/7 12/8 Area Burned vs. PM2.5 Emissions

  10. Effect of Different Fire Information Sources 300 y = 104x 250 2 R = 0.66 • MODIS Terra and Aqua only • This is the most commonly used satellite-derived fire data set • We developed acres burned per pixel relationship by examining 30 wildfires • Used 100 acres per pixel 200 Acres Burned (Thousands) 150 100 50 0 0 1000 2000 3000 Pixel Count • ICS-209s only • This was BlueSky’s previous data feed. • ICS-209s report cumulative area burned. • We subtracted the previous day’s area from today’s to get the daily area burned

  11. SMARTFIRE vs. MODIS vs. ICS-209Area Burned

  12. Differences Between MODIS and HMS • Because HMS includes GOES and AVHRR derived fire pixels in addition to MODIS, it detects more fires overall. • This is especially true in the southeast, where fires are often small and/or short lived. • In addition to the increased coverage, HMS provides human quality control.

  13. 200 150 Million Tons 100 50 0 Yearly Totals ICS-209 MODIS SMARTFIRE 14 12 Area Burned 10 Million Acres 8 Area Burned 6 4 2 0 Fuel Consumed MODIS consumption rate is much higher than the other two. Why? MODIS consumption rate is much higher than the other two. Why? 2.0 Fuel Consumed 1.5 PM2.5 Emitted Million Tons 1.0 0.5 0.0 2003 2004 2005 2006

  14. SMARTFIRE vs. MODIS vs. ICS-209 PM2.5 Emissions

  15. Aspen Fire, Arizona – 2003

  16. 14 PM2.5 Emitted - Aspen Fire, Arizona ICS209 12 SMARTFIRE 10 Hundred Tons 8 6 4 2 0 6/17 6/20 6/23 6/26 6/29 7/2 7/5 7/8 7/11 Aspen Fire – Acres Burned vs. Emissions Total 14 Helicopter 84,733 Acres Burned - Aspen Fire, Arizona ICS209 12 ICS-209 84,750 SMARTFIRE 10 SMARTFIRE 80,896 8 Thousand Acres 6 4 2 0 6/17 6/20 6/23 6/26 6/29 7/2 7/5 7/8 7/11 Total ICS-209 8,281 SMARTFIRE 3,659

  17. B & B Complex, Oregon – 2003

  18. Total B & B Complex, Oregon – 2003 ICS-209 Helicopter 90,800 MODIS 30 SMARTFIRE ICS-209 91,500 Acres Burned - B&B Complex, Oregon 25 MODIS189,800 20 SMARTFIRE 117,100 15 Thousand Acres 10 5 0 9/13 8/19 8/24 8/29 9/3 9/8 Total ICS-209 10,700 MODIS73,100 SMARTFIRE 44,200

  19. Future Work • Continued validation and improvement of fire size parameters • Further exploration of high consumption rate when using MODIS • Differences with high resolution fuel loading data (LANDFIRE) • 30-m spatial resolution is finer scale than the satellite fire information • Will use helicopter-flown perimeters or high resolution satellite burn scars to determine area burned • Smoke and Emissions Model Intercomparison Project (SEMIP)

  20. Acknowledgments Funding from National Fire Plan, USFS, Joint Fire Science Program, EPA, DOI, and NASA ROSES DSS Our many collaborators and partners Tom Pace (EPA) Amber Soja (NIA) Mark Ruminski and John Simko (NOAA NESDIS) Roger Ottmar and Susan Pritchard (USFS-FERA) Thank you! Information: www.getBlueSky.org Contact: sraffuse@sonomatech.com

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