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Kuliah 10: China-Taiwan Crisis

Kuliah 10: China-Taiwan Crisis. Background. Following the Communist victory on the mainland in 1949, 2 million nationalists (KMT) fled to Taiwan and established a government using the 1946 constitution drawn up for all of China.

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Kuliah 10: China-Taiwan Crisis

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  1. Kuliah 10: China-Taiwan Crisis

  2. Background • Following the Communist victory on the mainland in 1949, 2 million nationalists (KMT) fled to Taiwan and established a government using the 1946 constitution drawn up for all of China. • The ruling authorities gradually democratized and incorporated the local population within the governing structure. • In 2000, Taiwan underwent its first peaceful transfer of power from the Nationalist to the Democratic Progressive Party. • The island prospered and became one of East Asia's economic "Tigers.“ • The dominant political issues continue to be critical in Taiwan-China relations.

  3. Location • Northeast Asia, islands bordering the East China Sea, Philippine Sea, South China Sea, and Taiwan Strait, north of the Philippines, off the southeastern coast of China • Area: total: 35,980 sq km land: 32,260 sq km water: 3,720 sq km includes the Pescadores, Matsu, and Quemoy islands Coastline: 1,566.3 km Maritime Claims: territorial sea: 12 nm exclusive economic zone: 200 nm

  4. Background • Ethnics Groups: Taiwanese (including Hakka) 84%, mainland Chinese 14%, indigenous 2% • Religions: mixture of Buddhist and Taoist 93%, Christian 4.5%, other 2.5% • Language: Mandarin Chinese (official), Taiwanese, Hakka dialects • Country Name: Taiwan Former Name: Formosa

  5. Administrative Divisions • Includes main island of Taiwan + smaller islands nearby and off coast of China's Fujian Province. • Divided into 18 counties (hsien), 5 municipalities (shih), and 2 special municipalities (chuan-shih) Counties: Changhua, Chiayi [county], Hsinchu, Hualien, Kaohsiung [county], Kinmen, Lienchiang, Miaoli, Nantou, Penghu, Pingtung, Taichung, Tainan, Taipei [county], Taitung, Taoyuan, Yilan, and Yunlin Municipalities: Chiayi [city], Hsinchu, Keelung, Taichung, Tainan Special municipalities: Kaohsiung [city], Taipei [city] - Uses a variety of romanization systems. - The city of Taipei adopted a Pinyin Romanization for street and place names within its boundaries. - Other local authorities use different romanization systems.

  6. National Day & Constitution • Republic Day (Anniversary of the Chinese Revolution), 10 October, 1911 • Constitution: 25 December 1947; amended in 1992, 1994, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2005. Constitution adopted on 25 December 1946 went into effect on 25 December 1947.

  7. Presidents • Chiang Kai-shek 20 May 1948 - KMT/military • Li Tsong-jen 21 Jan 1949 - KMT/military (acting) • Chiang Kai-shek 1 Mar 1950 - KMT/military • Yen Chia-kan 5 Apr 1975 - (+1993) KMT • Chiang Ching-kuo 20 May 1978 - KMT • Lee Teng-hui 13 Jan 1988 - KMT • Chen Shui-bian 20 May 2000 - MCT • Ma Ying-jeou 20 May 2008 - KMT

  8. President Ma Ying-jeou Birth:Hong-Kong, July 13, 1950 Education:1981 S.J.D., Harvard Law School 1976 LL.M., New York University 1972 LL.B., National Taiwan University

  9. Executive Branch • Chief of state: President • Vice PresidentHead of government: Premier (President of the Executive Yuan) • Vice Premier (Vice President of the Executive Yuan)Cabinet: Executive Yuan - (ministers appointed by president on recommendation of premier) Elections: president and vice president elected on the same ticket by popular vote for four-year terms (eligible for a second term); election last held 22 March 2008) • Premier appointed by the president; vice premiers appointed by the president on the recommendation of the premier

  10. Legislative • Legislative Yuan (113 seats - 73 district members elected by popular vote, 34 at-large members elected on basis of proportion of island wide votes received by participating political parties, 6 elected by popular vote among aboriginal populations; to serve four-year terms); parties must receive 5% of vote to qualify for at-large seats elections: Legislative Yuan - last held 12 January 2008 (next to be held in January 2012) election results: Legislative Yuan - percent of vote by party - KMT 53.5%, DPP 38.2%, NPSU 2.4%, PFP 0.3%, others 1.6%, independents 4%; seats by party - KMT 81, DPP 27, NPSU 3, PFP 1, independent 1

  11. Judicial Branch • Judicial Yuan (justices appointed by the president with consent of the Legislative Yuan)

  12. Political Parties • Democratic Progressive Party or DPP • Kuomintang or KMT (Nationalist Party); • Non-Partisan Solidarity Union or NPSU; • People First Party or PFP

  13. Economy • Has a dynamic capitalist economy with gradually decreasing guidance of investment and foreign trade by the authorities. • Some large, state-owned banks and industrial firms are being privatized. • Exports have provided the primary impetus for industrialization. • Has a large trade surplus, and foreign reserves are among the world's largest. • Despite restrictions on cross-strait links, China has overtaken the US to become Taiwan's largest export market and its second-largest source of imports after Japan. China is also number one destination for FDI. Strong trade performance in 2007 pushed Taiwan's GDP growth rate above 5%, and unemployment is below 4%.

  14. GDP/Capita: $29,800 (2008 est.) • Unemployment rate: 3.9% (2008) • Inflation rate (consumer prices): 1.8% (2007) • Budget: revenues: $49 billion expenditures: $5.19 billion (2007 est.) • Industries: electronics, petroleum refining, armaments, chemicals, textiles, iron and steel, machinery, cement, food processing, vehicles, consumer products, pharmaceuticals

  15. Military • Military Branches: Army, Navy (includes Marine Corps), Air Force, Coast Guard Administration, Armed Forces Reserve Command, Combined Service Forces Command, Armed Forces Police Command • Khidmat Negara: 19-35 years of age for male compulsory military service; service obligation 16 months (to be shortened to 14 months as of July 2007 and to 12 months in 2008); women may enlist; women in Air Force service are restricted to noncombat roles; reserve obligation to age 30 (2007) • Military expenditures - percent of GDP:2.2% (2006; to increase to 2.85% in 2007)

  16. International Disputes • Involved in complex dispute with China, Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam, and Brunei over the Spratly Islands. • The 2002 "Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea" has eased tensions but falls short of a legally binding "code of conduct" desired by several of the disputants. • Paracel Islands are occupied by China, but claimed by Taiwan and Vietnam. • In 2003, China and Taiwan became more vocal in rejecting both Japan's claims to the uninhabited islands of the Senkaku (Diaoyutai) and Japan's unilaterally declared exclusive economic zone in the East China Sea where all parties engage in hydrocarbon prospecting.

  17. Cross-strait Relations • The biggest challenge democratic Taiwan faces to preserve and consolidate its own democracy is authoritarian China’s military threat, which also seriously undermines the foundation of peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific area. Statement by the Taiwanese Government in May 2007. • Taiwan is an experimental laboratory for democracy in the greater Chinese community, including Hong Kong, Macau, China, and Singapore.

  18. Taiwan’s China Policy Three goals 1. Goodwill reconciliation (damai) 2. Active cooperation 3. Permanent peace Four principles 1. Sovereignty 2. Democracy 3. Peace 4. Reciprocity (timbal balik)

  19. Sovereignty • Taiwan is an independent country; its sovereignty belongs to 23 million people of Taiwan. Without the consent of 23 million people of Taiwan, the status quo of sovereignty can not be changed.

  20. Democracy • The Republic of China and the People’s Republic of China – can seek to establish relations in any form whatsoever. • Taiwan would not exclude any possibility, so long as there is the consent of the 23 million people of Taiwan.

  21. Peace • Four Nos • Not declare independence • Not change the national title • Not push forth the inclusion of the so-called “state-to-state” description in the Constitution • Not promote a referendum to change the status quo in regard to the question of independence or unification • Integration theory • The integration of bilateral economies, trade, and culture across the Taiwan Strait should be a starting point for gradually building faith and confidence in each other. Could be the basis for a new framework of permanent peace and political integration

  22. Peace • A framework of interaction for peace and stability - One principle – peace - No use of force - No unilateral change to the status quo in the Taiwan Strait area Four major issues • Establishment of negotiation mechanism • Exchanges based on equality and reciprocity • Establishment of political relationship • Prevention of military conflicts

  23. Reciprocity • Taiwan and China should interact and establish cross-Strait relations based upon equal footing and reciprocity.

  24. China’s Taiwan Policy • China’s Long-term goal • Not peaceful unification, but creeping annexation of ROC (Taiwan), submissive surrender of Taiwan to China • Framework: one country, two systems (Taiwan government as a local government)

  25. Tactics by China: Two approaches • Hard-pronged approach Military threat - Double-digit growth rates of military budget for 18 years. - Deploy more than 1,000 missiles targeting Taiwan, and increase 100-125 missiles per year. - Taiwan is China’s excuse and scapegoat for its military expansion. - China has more than 60 modern submarines while only 12-16 submarines can effectively blockade the Taiwan Strait. - China also procured long range bombers and mid-air refuelers from Russia. Diplomatic suppression - Sabotage Taiwan’s relations with diplomatic allies. - Take away Taiwan’s diplomatic allies (one for each year since 2000). - Intervene in Taiwan’s interaction with non-diplomatic allies. - Obstruct Taiwan’s participation in the World Health Organization (WHO) and other international organizations and activities. - China downgrade Taiwan’s status in the INGOs. For instance, China changes Taiwan’s participation titles in nine INGOs in 2006. - Bar Taiwan from joining regional integration agreements.

  26. Soft-pronged Approach • Advocate bilateral economic exchanges and cooperation to advance China’s economic development. • Adopt economic inducements against Taiwan. • Provide unilateral preferential treatments and benefits to Taiwan businesspeople and different groups. • Utilize the cooperation of Taiwan’s opposition parties to pressure Taiwan’s political concession.

  27. Current Status of Cross-Strait Relations • The crux of the cross-Strait deadlock: one-China principle. • Between 2002 and 2005, negotiations over the Lunar New Year charter flights serve as a very good precedent upon which both sides developed a feasible negotiation model on bilateral economic and functional issues. • The major characteristics of the new negotiation model: • Setting aside of disputes, no setting of preconditions. • Mutual respect, seeking truth from facts. • Government leadership, private sector assistance.

  28. Current State • Based upon this model, Taiwan has reached agreements with China on two arrangements of lunar new year charter flight in 2005-2006 and four special charter flight arrangements, including special cargo charter flight arrangement, special holiday charter flight arrangement, special emergent medical charter flight arrangement, and special humanitarian charter flight arrangement. • Currently, Taiwan and China are negotiating two issues (tourists, cargo and passenger charter flights). Nevertheless, China utilizes the negotiation as political leverage and united front tactics to pressure Taiwan to make political concessions to China. We call on China not to impose political framework on the negotiation and we hope both sides reach agreements as soon as possible.

  29. Prospects/Conclusion • Military confrontation • Diplomatic conflict • Political deadlock • Economic and social engagement Since May 2004, Taiwan has been advocating negotiation with China on 18 economic and functional issues. Opportunities: dialogues on economic/functional issues and incremental agreements would gradually pave the way for the establishment of a framework of interaction for peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.

  30. Prospect/Conclusion • Risks: China’s rapid military expansion, increasing military imbalance between Taiwan and China, and assertive stance on Taiwan might cause accidental military conflicts. • Solution: urge China to be a responsible stakeholder: - Renounce the use of force against Taiwan - Stop military threats toward Taiwan - Give up diplomatic suppression against Taiwan - Negotiate with Taiwan to establish a framework of stability and peace

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