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World commodity prices 2004 - 2005

World commodity prices 2004 - 2005. AIECE Spring Meeting Kiel, May 6 2004. Commodity markets are thriving and prices are soaring…. …as activity and trade recover. Latest market developments. Surge in raw materials prices…

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World commodity prices 2004 - 2005

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  1. World commodity prices2004 - 2005 AIECE Spring Meeting Kiel, May 6 2004

  2. Commodity markets are thriving and prices are soaring… AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004

  3. AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004

  4. AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004

  5. …as activity and trade recover AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004

  6. Latest market developments • Surge in raw materials prices… • HWWA overall index up 72% between December 2001 (latest trough) and April 2004 • Industrial commodities and foodstuffs have surged more than energy prices • …due to the Chinese “heat wave”… • China, the world’s workshop, was in 2003 the world’s largest consumer of • coal, absorbing 40% of total world production • steel and nickel, absorbing 25% of total world production • aluminium, absorbing 19% of total world production • as natural resources become scarcer or uncompetitive in China • …highlighting capacity constraints worldwide • Lack of investment in basic industries: overinvestment in ICT to the expense of basic industries • Prices of raw materials were until recently quite low on an historical perspective, too low to boost investment AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004

  7. Where China mattersExample of coal prices AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004

  8. Where China mattersExample of nickel prices AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004

  9. Prices of raw industrial materials on a longer term perspective AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004

  10. AIECE Commodity Group forecasts • Factors which could push raw material prices down • In Europe: strong euro • Seasonnal factors (agricultural commodities) • Factors sustaining raw material prices • Strong growth expected in industrial demand in Asia, with China more and more decisive for prices • Supply deficit even on markets believed to be structurally in excess supply (steel for example) • Investment from pension funds away from bourses to commodity markets (speculation on the London Metal Exchange) The environment for European raw materials purchasers has deteriorated sensibly, despite a strong euro; no significant downturn is expected in prices before 2006. AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004

  11. AIECE Commodity Group forecasts AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004

  12. AIECE Commodity Group forecasts AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004

  13. AIECE Commodity Group forecasts AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004

  14. AIECE Commodity Group forecastsAggregate prices AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004

  15. AIECE Commodity Group forecastsEnergy prices AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004

  16. AIECE Commodity Group forecastsNon-ferrous metals prices AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004

  17. AIECE Commodity Group forecastsFerrous metals prices AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004

  18. AIECE Commodity Group forecastsAgricultural prices AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004

  19. AIECE Commodity Group forecastsFood and beverages prices AIECE Commodity Report - May 2004

  20. World commodity prices2004 - 2005 AIECE Spring Meeting Kiel, May 6 2004

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