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United States Pacific Command

United States Pacific Command. TSDM-20 Source: NWC Faculty edited by Dr. Coty Keller. Combatant Commander (CINC) Perspective.

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United States Pacific Command

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  1. United States Pacific Command TSDM-20 Source: NWC Faculty edited by Dr. Coty Keller

  2. Combatant Commander (CINC) Perspective “During my time as a CINC, I was asked to carry out presidential and other diplomatic missions that would normally have fallen to diplomats. I’m sure such things frustrated the State Department, but I don’t think they disapproved. In fact, they were very supportive. It was more a case of: “Well, if we can’t do it, at least somebody is taking care of it. If it’s the CINCs, then God bless them.” In fact, more often than not, the ambassadors were very glad we were there. We not only brought them the connections we’d made, but we provided them with the ability to get things done they couldn’t ordinarily do.” General Tony Zinni, USMC (ret) NWC/TSDM Dr. Coty Keller

  3. Understanding the Asia-PacificTSDM-20

  4. “100 Years of Shame”

  5. Japanese Empire - 1942 History matters - a lot - in this region!

  6. Regional Military SpendingAsia-Pacific States in the Top 15SIPRI 2011 Year book RankSpending (B) World Share% of GDP01-10 Change 1 USA $661 43.0% 4.3% 81.3% 2 China [$100] [6.6%] [2.0%] [189]% 6 Japan $51.0 3.3% 0.9% -1.7% 9 India $36.3 2.4% 2.6% 54.3% 12 S. Korea $24.1 1.6% 2.8% 45.2% 13 Australia $19.0 1.2% 1.8% 48.9% [ ] = estimated figure; figures in market exchange rates

  7. World’s Largest Militaries 1 China 2.35 m 2 USA 1.427 m 3 India 1.325 m 4 North Korea 1.082 m 5 Russia 960,000 6 South Korea 686,000 10 Vietnam 484,000

  8. Schools of thought among foreign affairs experts Nativists -distrust outside world; isolationist; xenophobic nationalists, Marxists Realism** -build state power and use it; hard and soft power schools Major Powers -focus on relations with major powers “Asia First” -protect own backyard; immediate region most important Global South -ties with the developing world should be the priority Selective Multilateralism -expand global involvement gradually in support of national interests Globalism -be a responsible power and be more active ** dominant view

  9. Taiwan China “One China, Two Systems” *Taiwan -- renegade province Taiwan[2010] 36.6% (StQuo & decide later) 23% (StQuo indefinitely) 10% (StQuo & move to unif) 1.1% (unify ASAP) U.S. position “One China” policy --settle the dispute peacefully ** no confrontation or provocation

  10. US-Japan Alliance“cornerstone of our security strategy” US Forces Japan (USF) 38,000 personnel III MEF George Washington Strike Group 5th Air Force Japan Self-Defense Force (JSDF) 240,000 personnel Budget: 1% of GDP $51 Billion #6??? Host nation support to U.S.: $4 billion

  11. Island disputes Kurile Islands Dokdo/Takeshima Diaoyu/Senkaku Spratly Islands

  12. Competing claims in the S. China Sea

  13. North Korea [DPRK] Kim Jong-un US Policy - “strategic patience”; close coordination with SK - sanctions; exercises with SK What is the road ahead? - wait out NK?  likely result? - restart dialogue/Six Party Talks?  to what end? - other options? “cap and trade”? China’s role? South Korean President Park Geun-hye - totalitarian, dynastic communist regime - BIG economic problems - succession process settling down - tough security environment - Big but old conventional military - ballistic missiles; 6-12 nuclear weapons [3 tests]

  14. Northern Limit Line (NLL) – declared by UNC in Sept 1953 * NK has long opposed the line * Naval clashes: 1999, 2002, 2009 [NK offers own line in 1999] * Cheonan sunk (March 2010); artillery exchange (Nov 2010) SW of Baengnyeong IslandYeongpyeong Island Should the ROK [and US] have responded more forcefully in the wake of the provocations?

  15. Restructuring the US-ROK Alliance Strategic Alliance 2015 1) Numbers 1954-1971:63,000 1971:43,000 1978:39,500 1990s:37,500 2003 – start 3 phase process ** 28,500 2) Location 2 hubs a. Osan AB & Camp Humphreys (Pyeongtaek – 2014) b. Daegu & Chinhae 3) OPCON 1950 – OPCON to UNC 1978 – Combined Forces Command 1994 – return peacetime OPCON April 17, 2012 – return wartime OPCON

  16. Conclusions Mutually beneficial trade Large U.S. debt to China U.S. dissatisfaction with Chinese exchange rate Old disagreements over Taiwan, Tibet, and human rights Growing disagreement over rival claims to oil-rich territories in the South China Sea

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