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10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul

Air Quality Management at Urban, Regional and Global Scales 4th International Symposium and IUAPPA Conference. Plenary Lecture CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY EMISSIONS IN THE WORLD AND TURKEY. Prof. Dr.Ekrem EKINCI Chairman of the Board Tdinamik Energy Company.

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10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul

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  1. AirQuality Management at Urban, Regionaland Global Scales 4th International Symposiumand IUAPPA Conference PlenaryLecture CLIMATE CHANGE AND ENERGY EMISSIONS IN THE WORLD AND TURKEY Prof.Dr.Ekrem EKINCI Chairman of the Board TdinamikEnergyCompany 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul

  2. CONTENTS • IntroductionandScope/ Global Warming • Global EnergyTrends • Global Energy UtilisationandGlobalWarming • TrendsforTurkey • Concluding Remarks 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul

  3. MyInvolvement in thepast FBC of lowgradefuels (TurkishLignites) Utilisation of smallscalestreamsforpower production Startedresearch as a coalscientist NATO summerschool on Hydrogen EnergySystems Hydrogen & CoalScientists 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul

  4. Global Climate Change IndicatorsNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Climatic Data Center The Global Surface Temperature is Rising 20 warmest years all occurred since 1981, 10 warmest occurred in past 12 years. 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN version 2). More information: U.S. Surface Temperature Data, USHCN v2.

  5. Global Climate Change IndicatorsNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Climatic Data Center U.S. Surface Temperature is also Rising U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN version 2). More information: U.S. Surface Temperature Data, USHCN v2.

  6. National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Climatic Data Center SeaLevel is Rising 1.7 mm/year past 100 years larger than the rate averaged over the last several thousand years. Since 1993, global sea level rose at an accelerating rate of around 3.5 mm/year. 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise (USGCRP) and Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis.

  7. Global Climate Change IndicatorsNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Climatic Data Center • Global Upper Ocean Heat Content is Rising • Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover is Retreating • GlacierVolume is Shrinking • Climate Extremes are Increasing 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul

  8. Global Climate Change IndicatorsNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNational Climatic Data Center

  9. EIA SenariosforEnergyUtilisation Senariosforfutureenergyuseanditseffect on GW • Business as usual, referencesenario • Continuewithpresent market drivenattitude • Ignoring global warming (suicidal) • 450 Senario, keepwarmingbelow 2 °C • New policiessenario, in betweentwosenarios 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul

  10. GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS World primary energy demand by fuelin the Reference Scenario 18 000 Other renewables Mtoe 16 000 Biomass 14 000 Hydro 12 000 Nuclear 10 000 8 000 Gas 6 000 Oil 4 000 Coal 2 000 WEO-2008 total 0 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Global demand grows by 40% between 2007 and 2030, with coal use rising most in absolute terms, IEA

  11. GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS World primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario 12 000 China and India Mtoe Rest of non-OECD 10 000 OECD 8 000 6 000 4 000 2 000 0 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Non-OECD countries account for 93% of the increase in global demand between 2007 & 2030, driven largely by China & India (IEA)

  12. GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS Change in primary energy demand by fuelin the Reference Scenario, 2007-2030 Coal China Oil India Gas Other Asia Nuclear Middle East Hydro OECD Other Latin America Africa E. Europe/Eurasia 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul - 500 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 Mtoe The increase in China’s demand for energy – for coal in particular – dwarfs that of all other countries & regions (IEA)

  13. GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS Coal-fired power-generation capacityunder construction by country China India Non-OECD 112 51 12 United States Europe Other 19 17 5 OECD 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul GW The bulk of coal-fired capacity currently being built is in non-OECD countries – more than half of the world total in China alone (IEA)

  14. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING • Yearly average atmospheric T increasescenario • Population increase + energy demand • If business as usual, equilibrium warming range 1990 to 2100, estimatesaccordingto EPA data • low2.3 °C • best guess4.8 °C • high10.1 °C • 2.3°C warming, a monumental challenge 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul

  15. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING Implications of the energy trends in the Reference Scenario, IEA • Current energy trends are environmentally, economically & socially patently unsustainable — • Rising CO2 emissions imply an inevitable rise in global greenhouse-gas concentration & potentially catastrophic climate change • Global carbon-dioxide emissions increase by 1.0 Gt in 2011 to record high 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul

  16. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING (3/25) 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul

  17. Total andperCapitaEmissions in theWorld, 2008, (UNFCCC)

  18. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING Population by major region 2008 Africa 2035 India China Other Asia OECD Europe Latin America OECD North America E. Europe/Eurasia Middle East OECD Pacific 0 200 400 600 800 1 000 1 200 1 400 1 600 1 800 Million 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul Global population – an important driver of energy needs – is projected to grow by 0.9% per year on average, from an estimated 6.7 billion in 2008 to 8.5 billion in 2035

  19. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING • 450Scenario is low-carbon energy technologies and energy efficiencyprogrammetoavoid severe climate change by 2030 • Expectedtoimprove economics, health and energy-security • Cumulative incremental investment of $11.5 trillion is needed compared to referencescenario • Agreement on instruments, incentivesandfinancingof investments in non-OECD countries is still not clear • In 450 Scenarioin OECD countries carbon price reaches $50 pt of CO2 in 2020 and $110 in 2030 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul

  20. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING Energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario 42 Gt 40 Reference Scenario 38 36 34 13.8 Gt 32 3.8 Gt 30 28 26 450 Scenario 2007 2015 2020 2025 2030 2010 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul In the 450 Scenario, emissions peak before 2020 at 30.9 Gt, falling to 26.4 Gt by 2030 – almost 14 Gt lower than in the Reference Scenario (IEA)

  21. 45 Abatement Current Policies Gt 2020 2030 2035 Scenario 40 Efficiency 71% 49% 48% – End-use (direct) 34% 24% 24% 35 – End-use (indirect) 33% 23% 23% – Power plants 3% 2% 1% 30 Renewables 18% 21% 21% Biofuels 1% 3% 3% 25 450 Scenario Nuclear 7% 9% 8% CCS 2% 17% 19% 20 3.5 15.1 20.9 Total (Gt CO2) 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING Energy efficiency & renewables arekey to abatement in the 450 Scenario World energy-related CO2 emissions savings in the 450 Scenario compared with the Current Policies Scenario, by measure 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul After 2020, the share of energy efficiency in total abatement declines,while more costly options like biofuels and CCS increase their share

  22. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING The 450 Scenario: How do we get there now? World energy-related CO2 emission savings by country in the 450 Scenario 38 Gt 35.4 Gt Share of cumulative abatement between 2010-2035 36 New Policies Scenario 34 China 32% 32 United States 18% 30 European Union 8% 13.7 Gt 28 India 7% 26 Middle East 4% Russia 4% 24 450 Scenario Rest of world 27% 22 21.7 Gt 20 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul 2008 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 In the 450 Scenario, China & the US together account for 50% of the cumulative emission abatement that is needed in 2010-2035

  23. ENERGY UTILISATION AND GLOBAL WARMING World primary energy demandby fuel & scenario in 2030 Reference Scenario Coal -47% 450 Scenario Oil -15% Gas -17% Nuclear +49% Renewables +33% 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 Mtoe 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul The share of fossil fuels in total primary energy demand in the 450 Scenario declines from 81% today to 68% in 2030, with gas remaining at close to today’s levels of 20% (IEA)

  24. TRENDS FOR TURKEY • Population:74.8 million, Sixthbiggesteconomyandelectricity market in Europe • Fastrecoveryafterthe global financialcrisis: 8,9% GDP growth in 2010 • Importdependency of energy: 71.5 % (2010) • Electricitydemandincrease 6,7% (lowscenario) or 7,5% (highscenario) until 2020 • Investmentrequiredmorethan $ 100 bl. forthenext 15 years 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul

  25. Annualpercapitaelectricityconsumption (kWh) IEA, 2009 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul (3,099 in 2011)

  26. TRENDS FOR TURKEY (3/14) Source Potentials of Turkey 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul

  27. TRENDS FOR TURKEY (4/14) TURKEY TOTAL INSTALLED POWER (MW), 1980-2010 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul

  28. TRENDS FOR TURKEY 2010 ElectricityProduction in Turkey (TurkishElectricityTransmissionCompany - TEIAS) 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul

  29. TRENDS FOR TURKEY CO2 (Emissionsand Per CapitaEmissions) in Turkey, (UNFCCC) 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul Turkey’sWorldRankings, 2008 Total CO2 emissions 24. Per capitaemissions 83.

  30. TRENDS FOR TURKEY Composition of FutureElectricityProduction, fossilandrenewable, EPDK

  31. TRENDS FOR TURKEY

  32. TRENDS FOR TURKEY 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul • Turkey’sRenewableEnergySectorfrom a Global Perspective, PWC,2012

  33. FIT EUR cent/kWh Germany 13.6 Spain 13.5 ChechRepublic 28.8 England 10 Turkey 10 37.2-25 Greece TRENDS FOR TURKEY • FIT (Solar) ComparisonsforsomeEuropeanCountries

  34. Turkey’sRenewableEnergySectorfrom a Global Perspective, PWC,2012

  35. Turkey’sRenewableEnergySectorfrom a Global Perspective, PWC,2012

  36. ComperativeRenewable Energy Capacityas of end of 2010 & 2012

  37. MyInvolvement at present Todayproduction of electricityfromsmallstreams has manyantagonists, poormanagement, weare not in hydrosectorbyprincipal It is verydifficulttobuilt a coalbasedpowerplant, weare not in coalbasedelectricitygeneraration, FBC? Buildinggenerationunitsutilisingwindand solar power; not in FBC orsmallscalehyro-power 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul

  38. ConcludingRemarks Globallyweare at theinterphase of sustainabilityandcatastrophe, time tosecuresustainability is runningout Adoptnewenergypolicies, new life styles, extensiveinvestmenttosecure a warminglessthan 2°tosteertosustainabilityby 2030 Turkey’senergyutilisation is not an influencial in terms of quantityandpercapitaconsumption As a global playerTurkeymustadoptcoherentpoliciestoincreasealternativeenergyutilisationto be part of a sustainableworld, GW policies 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul

  39. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS • Special thanksto: • Dr. Fatih Birol of EIA, whocontinouslyproducingsensibleenergyanalysiforsustainableworld • Assoc. Prof.Dr. Mustafa Tiris of TdinamikEnergyCompany 10-13 September 2012, ITU, Istanbul

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