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Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Climate Services

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Climate Services. Jiayu Zhou. NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002. Science and Technology Infusion. Observation. Outreach. Climate Services. Forecast.

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Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Climate Services

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  1. Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Climate Services Jiayu Zhou NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002

  2. Science and Technology Infusion Observation Outreach Climate Services Forecast Applied Reserch Basic Reserch Outline • Team Composition • Vision/Benefits • Goals/Targets • Key Information Gaps • Key Solutions • Outstanding R&D Needs • Summary

  3. Climate ServicesTeam Composition • Jiayu Zhou NWS/OST • Bob Livezey NWS/OCWWS • Fiona Horsfall NWS/OCWWS • Ed O’lenic NWS/NCEP/CPC • Richard W. Reynolds NESDIS/NCDC • Martin P. Hoerling OAR/CDC • Simon Mason IRI/UCSD

  4. Outlook Forecast Uncertainty Years Guidance Seasons Threats Assessments Months 2 Week B.C.s Forecast Lead Time Predictability Forecasts 1 Week Watches Days Hours I.C.s Warnings & Alert Coordination Minutes Benefits Energy Health Protection of Life & Property Agriculture Flood Mitigation & Navigation Recreation Reservoir Control Ecosystem State/Local Planning Environment Commerce Transportation Space Operation Hydropower Fire Weather Climate Services Vision and Benefits • Vision • Provide Seamless Climate, Weather and Water Products and Services • Expand Climate Products and Services Regionally and Locally Based on J. Laver (2002) • $ Millions in Savings by Better Planning (Energy, Agriculture, Fishery, Sales, Recreation, Etc.) • Mitigate Losses from Wildfires Caused by Severe Drought • Save Lives and Reduce Property Damages Caused by Major Climate Anomalies (Drought, Flood, Heat Waves, and Winter Blizzards)

  5. Climate ServicesGoals/Targets to FY 12 Accuracy * On Track Low Risk High Risk

  6. Climate Services Key Information Gaps* • Influence of Land Surface Properties (Soil Moisture, Snow, Vegetation, Topography, Etc.) • Impact of Global Ocean Conditions (SST, Sea Ice, Etc.) • Internal Variability of Climate Modes (MJO, ENSO, AO/NAO, PDO, Interdecadal Variations, Etc.) • Understanding of Warm Season Climate System and Predictability Linking Climate with Weather & Water Climate Change Trends Land Ocean Water Cycle Climate Variability Weather Atmosphere Extreme Events Tropical Storms Droughts/Floods Tropics (MJO, ENSO) Extratropics (AO/NAO) (Based on W. Higgins 2002)

  7. Climate ServicesKey S&T Solutions

  8. 02 05 06 07 08 04 09 11 12 03 10 Climate Services Key S&T Solutions Surface Observation COOP Modernization Program, CRN, ASOSUpgrade Observations WSR-88D, TRMM GPM Radar GIFTS, GOES-O GOES-Q GOES-R NPOESS-1, GOES-P POES, GOES GOES-N Satellite Expand Surface and Deep Ocean Buoy Network Ocean Buoy AER LW Rad T254L64 Add 2 Tracers 45kmL64 Improve Micro-physics 35kmL100 40kmL80 Medium-Range Fcst Model Data Assimilation / Models T62L28, 21 Mem 41 mem 41 Mem 31 Mem T126L64 Improve physics Seasonal Fcst Model MOM1 (Part of Pacific only) Global MOM3 Global MOM4 Ocean Model Hemispheric, 25km Increased Spatial Resolution New Physics and New Data Sources Integrated into Basin & Regional Scale Ocean Model Ice Model Unified NOAH LSM Land Sfc Model Improve physics 100kmL50, Jason, Argo, QuikSCAT 40kmL50 35kmL60 40kmL60 50kmL50 Ocean DAS Results of North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) Projects Empirical Prediction System for Week 2-4 Deployment Applications OTE SOO/COMET Course Training DTE R&D

  9. Climate Services Outstanding R&D Needs • Improve Observations over Land and Ocean. • Unified NOAH Land Model with Land Data Assimilation and Climate Models from Regional to Global Time-Scales (NCEP Core Project). • Improve Global Ocean Data Assimilation by Upgrading GFDL Modular Ocean Model and Incorporating Satellite and In Situ Observations (GODAS Work Plan). • Improve the Ocean-Land Surface-Atmosphere-Ice Coupling with Advanced Dynamics and Physics (Emerging NCEP SFM/GFS). • Develop Empirical Prediction System for MJO-Related Impacts on Precipitation and Surface Temperature at Week 2-4. • Conduct North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME). • Develop Regional Climate Model and Hydrologic Model for Water Resource Applications. • Develop a Priori-Skill-Based Objective Blending Forecast Technique.

  10. Climate ServicesSummary Vision To Provide a Seamless Suite of Products and Services of Climate • R&D Needs • Conduct North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) • Develop Empirical Prediction System for Week 2-4 forecast • Develop Regional Climate Model and Hydrologic Model for Water Resource Applications Improving Forecasts and Services • Improve NOAH LSM and N-LDAS, G-LDAS • Upgrade GFDL Ocean Model from MOM1 to MOM3 and MOM4 and Improve ODAS • Improve Ocean-Land-Atmosphere-Ice Coupling with Advanced Dynamics and Physics • Modernize COOP, CRN, ASOS • Increase Moored and Drifting Buoys • Improve Satellite Observation for SST • VOS/ASAP • Develop Objective Blending Forecast Techniques 2007 2012 2002

  11. Climate Services Back-up Information • Acknowledgement • Potential Initiative Themes • Primary Partners/Customers • Key Products / Services • S & T Roadmap • References

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