1 / 16

Overview: Puget Sound Vessel Traffic Risk Assessment ( VTRA)*

Overview: Puget Sound Vessel Traffic Risk Assessment ( VTRA)*. Todd Hass, PhD Program Manager: Marine and Nearshore Special Projects Puget Sound Partnership

kory
Télécharger la présentation

Overview: Puget Sound Vessel Traffic Risk Assessment ( VTRA)*

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Overview: Puget Sound Vessel Traffic Risk Assessment (VTRA)* Todd Hass, PhD Program Manager: Marine and Nearshore Special Projects Puget Sound Partnership *Updated from presentation with Chad Bowechop/Makah at BC Ministry of the Environment: “Land Based Spill Preparedness and Response Symposium” - March 2013

  2. Outline: • PSP – role • Background & funding • Collaboration • VTRA model • VTRA status & next steps

  3. About PSP The Puget Sound Partnership has legislative mandate to recover the health of Puget Sound by 2020 • Also: “independently assess and advise Washington State’s oil spill programs” • Consensus from PSP Oil Spill Work Group to use maritime risk assessments and develop/apply risk reduction measures (NTA C8.1.2)

  4. VTRA Background… Puget Sound Harbor Safety Committee (HSC) expert mariners contributed judgment for the ~$1M BP-Cherry Point VTRA study completed by GWU et al. in 2008…study released and presented to HSC in April 2012 Makah Tribal Councilretained GWU via late-summer grant to researchers; updating the VTRA baseline traffic scenario from 2005 to 2010 and extending offshore

  5. Funding for VTRA… • US Environmental Protection Agency • Approved Makah Tribe’s proposal to update with 2010 VTOSS data (US/Canada VTS) • $200K to PSP to advance risk assessment and update VTRA

  6. VTRA Steering Committee formed in fall 2012 • Integrating State and Federal regulatory agencies, Tribes, Industries and Stakeholders into a VTRA update process • Agreed that GWU VTRA is common language by which region evaluates relative maritime traffic risk systemwide • Intangible “social license” via legitimacy, credibility & trust

  7. Others involved… PSP and PSHSCco-chair the Steering Committee USCG, Ecology and Makahare the government leads, guiding the update process

  8. About the model: (1) Collaborativevsadversarial analysis in environmental policy (Busenberg 1999) • Adversarial (debate) approach led to “distorted communication” and stalemate • Collaborative approach gave all stakeholders oversight of joint research team—promoting mutually credible results and resolution

  9. About the model: (2) Past VTRA (van Dorp and Merrick 2009) quantified contribution of different interventions on reducing spill risk (oil outflow) Risk reduction measures Tug escort = 61.7% Double hull = 23.6% 1-way zone = 6.3%

  10. VTRA “2010” – Status • Makah phase ended: final report/analysis issued • PSP phase 1: modeling 3* “What if?” scenarios • VTRA simulating projected traffic from the following potential projects: • Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion (Kinder Morgan) in B.C. • SSA Marine Gateway Pacific Terminal near Cherry Point, WA • Delta Port, Neptune, etc. expansion in Port Metro Vancouver, B.C.

  11. VTRA 2010 Past (winter/spring): • Researchers expanded classes of Focus Vessels, now includes cargo and bulk carriers (overall: FV=25%, nonFV=75% of exposure time) • 10Ks of actual routes/segments and VTOSS data scrubbed • VTRA SC obtained/shared the best available data projections on “What If” projects to be simulated

  12. VTRA 2010 DRAFT DRAFT Present (summer): • Researchers simulated “What If” changes in traffic (+>1500 trips/year) & noted changes in potential ship interactions • VTRA SC proposed mitigation measures to be simulated in model • Researchers produced draft report (Stage 1) reviewed by VTRA SC

  13. VTRA 2010 Future (winter): • Report/results used in revised Risk Management Strategy for Puget Sound • (Voluntary) changes to Harbor Safety Plan, SOCs, BMPs, etc. • Regulatory changes considered by USCG, WA-Ecology • Northwest Area Committee and its “2013-Emerging Risks Task Force” apply findings to contingency planning, GRPs, etc.

  14. More info: • todd.hass@psp.wa.gov; (360) 280 1588 • http://www.seas.gwu.edu/~dorpjr/tab4/publications_VTRA_Update.html

  15. Incident Data Expert Judgment Oil Outflow Model Maritime Simulation RISK MANAGEMENT QUESTIONS One-Way Zone Escort Requirements Double Hull Requirement Situations Oil Spill Incidents Accidents Kaplan’s (1997) Risk Definition About the model: (2) continued… Risk Management of a Causal Chain

More Related