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Main EEA activities Scenario and Forward studies GROUP

Main EEA activities Scenario and Forward studies GROUP. Teresa Ribeiro Anita Pirc-Velkavrh (Axel Volkery) (AnneKathrin Jaeger). EIONET seminar: Fo r ward-looking information in environment assessment 19-20 May 2008. PRESENTATION. I – Forward-Looking Assessments

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Main EEA activities Scenario and Forward studies GROUP

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  1. Main EEA activities Scenario and Forward studiesGROUP Teresa Ribeiro Anita Pirc-Velkavrh (Axel Volkery) (AnneKathrin Jaeger) EIONET seminar: Forward-looking information in environment assessment 19-20 May 2008

  2. PRESENTATION • I – Forward-Looking Assessments • II – Improving the Information System(IS) • III- Cooperation & Capacity Building

  3. I - Forward-looking assessments PAST ACTIVITIES: • SOER ( Overview) European Environment Outlook 2005 • PRELUDE (5 land-use scenarios) • Glimpses (analysing uncertainties)

  4. I - Forward-looking assessments SOER - EUROPEAN ENIRONMENT OUTLOOK 2005 • Key socio-economic developments • Demography • Macro-economy • Technological and sectoral developments • Energy and transport • Agriculture • Waste and material flows • Consumption patterns • Outlooks developed for various environmental themes • GHG emissions and climate change • Air quality • Water stress • Water quality

  5. I - Forward-looking assessments Analytical Framework of the EEO 2005 • Geographical coverage - EU 25 • Baseline projections (2020-2030), • Alternative projections and variants (up to 2100) • Interactions between sectoral developments and environmental issues • Distance to target analyses • Key messages / early warnings for policy-makers

  6. PRELUDEPRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe I - Forward-looking assessments Project objectives and outputs • To explore plausible long-term developments in land use and their effects on the environment (2005 to 2035 for EU 25 plus Norway and Switzerland) • To provide a contextagainst which the potential of (environmental) policy initiatives can be judged. • Participatory development of qualitative / quantitative scenarios for Europe and regional case studies

  7. PRELUDEPRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe I - Forward-looking assessments • New approaches to scenario communication: • video/audio-animated presentation tool • Broad communication brochure with DVD • Interactive mind-stretcher • Video presentation for Green week • Technical report and several conference papers to document analysis and experiences with the participatory development • PRELUDE 2 Action

  8. Land use type ALand use type BLand use type C Current Situation ... Future What Changes? ... Where? ... Environmental impacts? PRELUDE -Land use change scenarios I - Forward-looking assessments

  9. ‘Story-and-Simulation‘ EEA Quant. Scen. Experts Stakeholders Qual. Scen Data & Modelling Group(s) ☺Floods ☺ Biodiv. … European Land Use Change Scenarios The main driving forces behind land use change are climate change, population growth and technical and economic development, particularly of the transport and agriculture sectors. The environmental impacts of land use change are complex, and may affect air quality, water quality and quantity, landscape structure and biodiversity … Scenario development

  10. A Prelude to Europe’s Future 5 contrasting yet plausible environ-mental scenarios of future changes in land use and European landscape • Europe of Contrast – Great Escape • Europe of Harmony – Evolved Society • Europe of Structure – Clustered Networks • Europe of Innovation – Lettuce Surprise U • Europe of Cohesion – Big Crisis

  11. DUET change

  12. I - Forward-looking assessments What are the prospects for the environmentin the pan-European region? complex and dynamic environment Belgrade report findings what if... PROJECTIONS SCENARIOS drivers of future change uncertainties

  13. Pan-Europeanenvironmental outlooks*: • Air quality • Climate change • Biodiversity loss • Waste and material use • *based on the key findings of the Belgrade report Environmental changes are commonlydriven by wider socio-economic trends, such as : • Political stability • Globalisation and trade • Macro-economic trends • Demographic patterns • Consumptions patterns • Land and natural resources use • Global environmental governance Future related uncertainties

  14. Example from the report:Outlook – Biodiversity loss Impact of climate change on number of plant species, 2100 “The global target of halting biodiversity loss by 2010 is unlikely to be achieved without considerable additional effort.”

  15. EECCA WCE SEE Example from the report:Driver: Demographic patterns Uncertainties (e.g. migration) Population growth Population projections, 2000 to 2030 (Source: UN Population Division, 2006) Scenarios e.g: Migration from Turkey to EU, Erzan et al., 2007

  16. Example from the report:Driver: Consumption patterns Waste growth Energy • Energy consumption is • expected to increase. • Total waste generation is expected to continue to grow • Volumes of transport are expected to grow in unsustainable manner Source: IEA Transport: passenger and freight Key future concerns To understand better impacts on environment resulting from consumption and to more efficiently influence driving forces Source: IEA/WBSCD

  17. IEA energy scenarios WBCSD transport scenarios National energy scenarios in EECCA and SEE region The future European food chain: Sweden Scenarios, e.g.: Driver: Consumption patterns Uncertainties • Development of the future EU policy in energy, transport • Future development of policies in EECCA region • Prospect of technology breakthroughs • Global politics and unexpected events • Changes of consumption patterns

  18. II - IS with forward-looking components PAST ACTIVITIES • Review of available scenario studies in pan-European region • Review of relevant available models at EU level • Review of available outlook indicators from different sources • Developing outlook indicators for EU/EEA • Gathering, analysing and assessing available outlooks indicators ( Belgradereport, IMS(F), catalogue).

  19. AN OVERVIEW OF SCENARIO STUDIES (2007) II - IS with forward-looking components Information gaps in scenario studies Scope of the overview • Pan-European relevance • More than 100 studies reviewed • internet, contacts with experts, • English and Russian studies, all SEE languages • Main issues coveredwere economy, energy, political scenarios • Russia, Bulgaria, Turkey, SEE regional level Review is available on Envirowindows scenario website • Environmental impacts: water quality, biodiversity, impacts of climate change, waste • Transport, fisheries, technology, demography, land and natural resources use, env. integration with socio-economic issues • Problems in methodological soundness, reliability, lack of direct relevance to policy issues

  20. II - IS with forward-looking components REVIEW OF MODELLING TOOLS • 20 modelling tools are described in standardised model • descriptions out of a list of 130 models • based on public available information - review by • experts • Overview of 35 participative models

  21. Towards an online model inventory Transfer of templates into anonline model inventory: • One-off review activities do not capture dynamic developments • There is a need for pooling knowledge and expertise • Broaden perspectives of modellers and model users – feedback function A web-based inventory developed collaboratively by the EEA and the respective modellers Hosted by EEA but updated by modellers

  22. II - IS with forward-looking components Overview of available outlookindicators -relevant to pan-European region IMS and CIRCA http://ims.eionet.europa.eu/IMS/ISpecs/sets#Outlook Key results • Review ~ 150 indicators • from 14 institutions • 14 models • Themes and issues not well covered: terrestrial, fisheries, waterquality, land and natural resources use, environmental management, integration with socio-economic issues • 59 are in the IMS (F) • 30 outlookindicators used in the Glimpses report • 10 outlook indicators used in Belgrade report • 12 are related to the EEA CSI • All included in Catalogue (2008)

  23. Comparison of relations outlooks to EEA CSI

  24. Catalogue of outlook indicators 59 outlooks: 20 available in May 2008, the rest by summer

  25. Assessment of outlooks for three Pan-European subregions:

  26. Assessment of availability of data in Western Balkans

  27. Belgrade report Annex 3

  28. II - IS with forward-looking components The way forward: • 2008: Comparative analyses of 59 outlook indicators • 2009: consultation with countries • Regular update of few of them?

  29. III - Cooperation and capacity building PAST ACTIVITIES: • Countries • Regions (SEE, EECCA…) • UNEP – GEO 3/GEO 4 • MA – Scenarios report • Research Networks and publications

  30. III - Cooperation with countries - Use of existing scenarios (UNEP GEO) for downscaling to the country level • Workshop gathered different stakeholders in the country and liaised discussion between them Slovenia 2005: • Analysis of existing strategic goals and measures in transport and waste sector for 4 different scenarios • Identification of gaps in existing strategies and robust goals and measures for all scenarios Turkey 2006/7: • Discussing the energy system in the 4 scenarios • Identifyication of adequate policy measures for developing a robust energy strategy in each scenario

  31. PRELUDE 2action - Austria III - Cooperation with countries Initiated by the Austrian Environment Ministry • 1 Day - presentation of 4 PRELUDE scenarios in a circuit • Around 40 participants from different national and regional authorities • Lively, open discussion • What is the relevance (for EU, for Austria?) • What is the plausibility (for EU, for Austria?) • What is the desirability (for EU, for Austria?) • Positive feedback – similar exercise run by the Oesterreichische Raumordnungskonferenz in May 2008

  32. III - Cooperation with countries NEIGHBOURHOOD COUNTRIES (2009): Cooperation with UNEP GRID Arendal within Environment and security project • Moldova, Ukraine, Belarus • scenario development activity to strengthen countries capacities and contribute to identification of sustainable options of energy security strategies in Eastern Europe This activity would further link to EEA contribution to neighbourhood policy and EEA pan-European Astana report 2010

  33. DUET Change

  34. III - Cooperation - Contribution to non-EEA scenario assessments activities: Contribution to UNEP GEO-4 report • Developing the European component of global scenarios-narrative (on the bases of GEO-3 scenarios) • Bringing together European stakeholder team to support this task • Contributing to thequantitative analyses to support narratives • Contributing to the chapter 9 of the UNEP GEO-4 report

  35. III - Cooperation - Contribution to non-EEA scenario assessments activities: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment- MA • Scenarios team since beginning • Development of scenarios • Co-authored several chapters of the Scenario Assessment report. MA – Manual ( forthcoming Dec. 2008) • Co-authoring chapter on Scenarios

  36. Recent contributions to other foresight research projects / processes • IWRM-NET WP 3: ”Long-term research needs in integrated water resource management” (Advisory group) - 2008 • STOA / Danish Board of Technology: ”The Future of Long-Distance Transport in Europe” (Advisory group) – 2007/2008 • DG RTD ”Long-term research needs in agriculture” – 2007 • MATISSE, FORESCENE, SENSOR, Etc.

  37. Thank you!

  38. Methodological developments and scenarios • Conference presentations • Linking with main Knowledge centres (Oxford, MA, …….) • Scientific publications (MA, MA manual, …. ) • other research projects

  39. PRELUDEPRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe Project objectives and outputs • To explore plausible long-term developments in land use and their effects on the environment (2005 to 2035 for EU 25 plus Norway and Switzerland) • To provide a contextagainst which the potential of (environmental) policy initiatives can be judged. • Participatory development of qualitative / quantitative scenarios for Europe and regional case studies • New approaches to scenario communication: • video/audio-animated presentation tool • Stylish brochure • Interactive mind-stretcher • Technical report and several conference papers to document analysis and experiences with the participatory development

  40. BLOSSOM Background • Long-term environmental problems require a long-term (environmental) policy perspective • A couple of challenges: • The question is not only how to better assess key drivers, impacts and uncertainties of long-term future developments... • ... but also how to take decisions that are robust, or sound, against a variety of these alternative future developments?  Quite often the ones who are producing the information are not the ones who take the decisions

  41. BLOSSOM cont. Main questions • What is the actual impact of environmental scenarios and other forward-looking studies and tools on policy-making? • Anecdotal evidence that many decisions that could benefit from scenarios/other tools are not using them at all or not to the full potential advertised in the literature • Is this due to: • Lack of evaluation? • Lack of appropiate methods? • Lack of appropiate institutions?

  42. BLOSSOM cont. Main rationale Bridging LOng-term Scenarios and Strategy analysis – Organisation and Methods • A systemetic effort to: • Take stock • Scrutinize institutional arragements • Analyse methods and develop case studies • Foster information exchange and learning

  43. BLOSSOM cont. BLOSSOM 1.0 Started January 2008 • Organisations review • Literature review • Expert workshop

  44. BLOSSOM cont. First results • Literature review: 52 journal or book chapters match our criteria of ”evaluative scenario literature”, so far... • Some of the main findings: • Little to less work on factors that influence the successful use of scenarios • Most empirical cases come from the world of business • Little to less work on failure of scenario exercises • Growing literature evaluating environmental assessments does not make a significant mentioning of scenarios • Institutions – the missing debate? • Methods – how to better aling long-term scenario&policy analysis? Concepts of robust decision-making etc.

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